NFL Thursday Night Football Betting Primer Picks & Player Prop Bets: Bills vs. Dolphins
Welcome to the ultimate Week 2 NFL tease from BettingPros! I'm Andrew Erickson, your guide to navigating every twist and turn on the Week 2 NFL slate. In this special edition, we're laser-focused on the highly anticipated Bills vs. Dolphins showdown as the second week of the NFL kicks off with Thursday Night Football. From expert insights on the spread and total to can't-miss player props, I'll help you craft the perfect single-game parlay to get your season started with a bang. This is just a taste of what's coming when the FULL BettingPros Week 2 Primer drops later this week. Get ready, folks-it's time to place those BETS. Let’s dive into my top picks and player prop bets for Thursday Night Football: Bills vs. Dolphins.
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Thursday Night Football Betting Primer
Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins (-2.5)
Sides:
- Miami is 6-4 ATS at home over their last 10, including a 4-1 record in September/October.
- They are 10-5 ATS at home as favorites, but they have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games.
- The Dolphins have won 20 of their last 24 home games.
- Miami was below 20 percent ATS as an underdog last season, 1-5 overall in 2023.
- Miami did not win a game in 2023 after trailing at halftime. That changed for the first time in Week 1 versus the Jaguars.
- The Buffalo Bills are 12-5 as a favorite since the start of last season. But they are just 7-10 ATS as a favorite.
- The Bills were 9-2 and 5-6 ATS at home.
- Buffalo has failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 16 games. Woof.
- The Bills have won 11 of their last 12 games against the Dolphins.
- Josh Allen is 17-9-2 as an underdog ATS (64%) via BetMGM.
- Tua Tagovailoa is 18-12-0 (60%) ATS as a favorite.
Totals:
- Games in Miami averaged 49 points in 2023 (4-5 toward the over).
- Week 1 went way under the projected total (37 points).
- The Bills are 6-5 O/U in their last 11, averaging under 48 points per game.
- Five of the last nine Bills' games at home have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Five of the Bills' last six games have gone OVER the total points line.
Overall:
Miami did the unthinkable in Week 1: They came back from a halftime deficit. Head coach Mike McDaniel commented after the game that these are games the Dolphins lost in years past. But not in 2024. It's potentially a sign of things to come for a Dolphins team that usually is at the top of its game during the beginning of the season, especially when they play at home. But let's be honest.
Tua Tagovailoa left a ton of passing yardage on the table in Week 1 versus the Jaguars. And even so, it was a game that Miami should have probably lost outright, even though they blew the -3.5 with a game-expiring field goal. As I always say, good teams win, and great teams cover.
The Bills performed similarly in Week 1, overcoming a massive home deficit (but not enough to cover the spread). I was on the Cardinals at +6.5 based on the Bills' track record of playing "down" to inferior opponents.
As a divisional opponent, I believe Buffalo (as road underdogs) won't underestimate Miami. Therefore, as road underdogs, we should get their best effort in this spot.
Regarding injuries, Miami could be down two of its top RBs, Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane. I wouldn't be overly concerned about this from a sides or totals perspective, given that Miami has RBs in the waiting between Jeff Wilson Jr. and rookie Jaylen Wright to more than pick up the slack.
The Bills have a few injuries on defense, but there are no major names.
Looking back on Week 1, I didn't feel comfortable taking the Jags +3.5 on the road in Week 1 versus Miami. I felt the teams were evenly matched enough. The Jags should have won outright. Fast forward to Week 2, and the line is Bills +2.5. I realize the number is a stark difference from the +3.5, but just one point difference going from Trevor Lawrence to Josh Allen against the same opponent seems incorrect. Give me Allen on the road as an underdog. The Bills have won 11 of their last 12 games against the Dolphins.
As for the total, I am shooting for the prime-time under. Both teams want to run the football, as displayed by their negative pass rates over expectations in Week 1. Both were outside the top 20 in PROE: Miami (-5.5%) and Buffalo (-7%). I'm also not sure the Dolphins’ OL will match up well against Buffalo after they got pushed around by the Jaguars' defensive front in Week 1.
Although the Dolphins have explosive playmakers, Buffalo does as great a job as any defense in limiting chunk yardage. Kyler Murray completed just 4.7 yards per attempt against Buffalo in Week 1.
Again, the total is based on these two starting quarterbacks. But in this same matchup in Miami last January, the score was 21-14. Their Week 4 matchup in 2023 in Buffalo was 48-20 in favor of the Bills.
Player Props:
- Josh Allen has scored at least one touchdown in eight of the Bills’ last nine games, per DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Khalil Shakir scored a touchdown in each of the Bills’ last three games.
- Tyreek Hill has scored a touchdown in each of the Dolphins’ last three games.
- James Cook has over 2.5 receptions in four straight games and seven of his last 10. With Ty Johnson dealing with a knee injury, I'd expect Cook to see additional work on passing downs, giving him a clear pathway for targets.
- Dalton Kincaid caught one of his two targets for 11 yards in Week 1. However, the Bills TE was second on the team in route run at 83 percent, although he wasn't targeted until very late into the game. Regardless, the route participation is elite for a tight end. Last season, Kincaid had fewer than four catches only four times in 16 games played. The last time he faced Miami, he caught seven balls for 84 yards.
- For anytime TD bets, take some longshot odds on the backup RBs between Wilson and Wright in case either plays more due to other injuries on the depth chart, although the books were on this, given the odds between +200 and +210.
- If I am taking a long shot for anytime TD, it's for Marquez Valdes-Scantling. His role is clear as a go-route runner, as we saw in Week 1 with his 27-yard average depth of target on two targets.
- Note that James Cook might get run in the red zone as well. He had three red-zone opportunities last week, and Josh Allen was seen on the sideline with a bandage on his hand. If Buffalo elects to use him as a battering ram less, that would benefit Cook.
- Jaylen Waddle has 4.5 catches or more in five of his last seven games. Even if the Bills limit the yardage totals, the Dolphins’ WRs should be PEPPERED with underneath targets. The projections have Waddle for 5.3 receptions in Week 2.
My Picks: