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NFL Thursday Night Football Player Prop Bet Picks: Jaguars vs. Saints (Week 7)

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A very interesting cross-conference matchup to start Week 7. The Jaguars hold just a one-game lead in the AFC South, and you’re seeing the emergence of the Texans, which could keep this division competitive. The Saints have dropped three of their last four, but no one in the NFC South has created separation, so they could be in contention all season. Let’s look at some guys who could make an impact tonight.

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Best Thursday Night Football Player Prop Bets

Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Alvin Kamara Under 50.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Kamara has been heavily contributing to the offense as a volume-based asset. We're seeing a regression in per-play numbers as his 3.8 yards per carry is the second-lowest of his career, and his 3.7 yards per reception is his lowest by nearly a third. The Jaguars have been great against the run, allowing the seven-fewest yards per carry. We will not see enough production on the ground from Kamara for him to hit this prop.

Alvin Kamara Over 31.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

The good news is Kamara has been more of a factor in the passing game, so that's where we will see him featured. Since his return in Week 4, his 23 catches are leading amongst running backs. The Derek Carr shoulder sprain has seemed to impact his ability at the deep throw, and his 29.7 deep pass completion percentage is 24th in the league, so we've seen him result on check down. This is where Kamara will excel tonight.

Christian Kirk Over 4.5 Receptions (-135)

The status of Trevor Lawrence is uncertain, but he says the knee has "progressed really well," and he's "optimistic" that he can play. If not, it'll be C.J. Beathard under center, who has 13 career starts, all with the 49ers. Kirk has led the team in targets in two of the last three weeks, and it has been successful as the Jaguars have won three straight. Calvin Ridley should get most of the attention, which will help Kirk get optimal matchups. Whether or not Lawrence plays, I like this prop.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:


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