NFL Thursday Night Football Same Game Parlay Picks & Predictions: Eagles vs. Texans (Week 9)
The Eagles head to Houston on Thursday night to take on the Texans. Philadelphia has been one of the best teams in the NFL this year and is the last undefeated team standing at 7-0. On the other hand, the Texans are one of the NFL’s worst teams at 1-5-1. The Eagles are 14-point favorites in the game, with a total sitting at 45. The books are anticipating Philadelphia will win handily.
In lopsided games, there’s often plenty of interesting value in betting markets. Below is an SGP that I’m playing on Thursday night in order to try to exploit this value.
- Thursday Night Football Touchdown Scorer Picks & Predictions
- Thursday Night Football Odds, Picks & Predictions
NFL Thursday Night Football Same Game Parlay Picks & Predictions: Eagles vs. Texans (Week 9)
Eagles Halftime/Fulltime Winner (-270)
With Philadelphia installed as massive road favorites, they should win this game easily. Rather than play with the spread and try to hope for no late-game strangeness, I prefer a halftime/full-time winner play. The Eagles have the best first-half offense in the NFL – they score 21 points per game in the first half. On the other hand, the Texans are near the bottom of the league with just eight points per game.
In fact, most of the Eagles’ wins this year have involved them getting up big in the first half and sitting on that lead in the second half. Despite being the best first-half offense in the NFL, the Eagles average just 7.0 points per game in the second half. This is the sixth-lowest mark in the NFL.
If the Eagles win on Thursday, it will almost certainly be due to their explosive first-half offense. I think this is an excellent way to get exposure to an Eagles’ win without laying -770 on the full-game ML.
Miles Sanders 70+ Rushing Yards (-190)
While Miles Sanders has been excellent this year, this is as much a play against the Texans’ defense as anything. Houston owns the worst run defense in terms of rush yards per game allowed (159.3) by a wide margin. The gap between Houston and the second-worst run defense (Chargers) is wider than the gap between the Chargers and the 14th-worst run defense (Colts).
If Philadelphia does get out to an early lead, odds are they’ll keep the ball on the ground and exploit the Texans’ poor run defense. Sanders should get plenty of work in the ground game on Thursday night. This season, he averaged 4.9 yards per carry on 16.3 carries per game. If he can get an above-average number of carries, I love his chances to end up over 70 rushing yards in the game.
Brevin Jordan U17.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
The Texans’ passing game will be depleted on Thursday night. WR Nico Collins will miss the game, and WR Brandin Cooks is questionable after missing multiple days of practice. Despite this, I can’t see Brevin Jordan getting enough opportunity to go over his 17.5-yardage prop.
Jordan has only 5 catches for 27 yards all season. This includes one 16-yard catch – outside of this outlier, Jordan has averaged just under 3 yards per catch this year. His longest catch outside of this 16-yard play was just 5 yards.
The Eagles have allowed just 4.9 receptions per game by TEs this year, which is below the league average. With Jordan Akins and OJ Howard also getting looks at TE for Houston, it seems unlikely that Brevin Jordan will get the opportunity necessary to go over 17.5 yards, especially given his incredibly low YPC.
Under 49.5 Total Points (-205)
This play is likely to hit if the Eagles will get up big early and sit on their lead. As I mentioned, Philadelphia has an incredible first-half offense but a very poor second-half offense. If they can stake a big lead in the first half, odds are they won’t run the score up in the second.
I don’t expect many points to be scored on Houston’s side. Philadelphia has the fourth-best scoring defense in the NFL, while Houston has the 4th worse scoring offense in the NFL. Houston has been held to 20 or fewer points in all but one game this year, and I expect that trend to continue on Thursday.
Houston’s defense is actually fairly solid as well – they rank right at the league average in points allowed per game (22.0). I think the Eagles will win this game handily without putting up massive offensive numbers.
Total Parlay Odds: +420
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our How To Section — including How to Avoid the 7 Biggest Sports Betting Mistakes — or head to a more advanced strategy — like Thinking Like an Expert Sports Bettor — to learn more.