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NFL Week 1 Betting Primer: Picks & Player Prop Bets (2024)

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Introducing the Week 1 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.

Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 1 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for all remaining Week 1 games Sunday-Monday.

NFL Week 1 Betting Primer

Top Favorites:

  • Seattle -6
  • Buccaneers -3.5
  • Lions -4.5

Top Underdogs:

  • Steelers +3.5
  • Cardinals +6.5
  • Patriots +8.5
  • Giants +1.5
  • Panthers +4
  • Jets +4

Top Totals:

  • ATL/PIT under 41.5
  • TEN/CHI under 44.5
  • HOU/IND over 48.5
  • JAC/MIA over 49.5
  • ARI/BUF under 47.5
  • LAC/LA under 40
  • DAL/CLE under 41
  • TB/WAS under 42.5
  • DET/LAR over 52.5
  • NYJ/SF under 43.5

Atlanta (ATL) vs. Pittsburgh (PIT): ATL -3.5

Sides

  • The Falcons were 5-10-2 ATS in 2023.
  • They were better at home, finishing at 5-3 straight up.
  • Atlanta is 7-3 on the ML as home favorites in their last 10 home games.
  • However, the underdogs have won eight of the Falcons' last 12 games.
  • Pittsburgh was 10-8 ATS in 2023.
  • The Steelers went 5-4 ATS and on the ML on the road in 2023.
  • They finished 6-5 overall as an underdog in 2023 (55%).
  • The Steelers have covered the spread in each of their last four road openers, per DraftKings Sportsbook.
  • In the Steelers' last 16 road games, they are 10-6 ATS and 9-7 on the money line.

Totals

  • Seven of the Steelers' last 10 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Steelers have been regressing to the mean with a 7-11 O/U final record in 2023 after starting the 2023 season 2-10 toward the under.
  • Each of the Steelers’ last five season openers has gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall

The Arthur Smith REVENGE game. But the question is: Who is more motivated for revenge? Every single misused Falcons skill player or the big bad boss man (and the new Steelers offensive coordinator himself, who Atlanta fired at the end of last season? I give a slight edge to the Steelers. Smith knows this Falcons offensive personnel very well, and I'm sure he has been able to feed his knowledge to the Pittsburgh defense. The Steelers’ offense is very questionable with their current QB situation (Russell Wilson is already dealing with another calf issue) and with a few injuries across their OL (Isaac Semalo), so the Steelers' path to victory seems pretty self-explanatory. Play conservatively on offense by running the ball no matter what, and win on defense with turnovers/field position.

As for the Falcons, I think we might see a slow start. Remember, the starters did not play together at all during the preseason. It's a brand-new quarterback under center in Kirk Cousins, with all new receivers and a new play-caller. Interestingly enough, new Falcons OC Zac Robinson faced the Steelers’ defense last season as a member of the Rams staff. LA lost 24-17 playing at home. Could we see something similar here in Week 1? I tend to think so.

Mike Tomlin's track record on the road as an underdog is just too good to pass on for the 2024 Falcons "all-hype" team. Per BetMGM, Tomlin is 57-31-3 (64.3%) ATS as an underdog. By far the best of any current head coach, given the sample size.

Given that the line has moved to ATL -3.5, I love the value of the Steel Curtain to cover by at least a field goal. Atlanta has always played better at home, so I'm not confident about going full-blown with the Steelers’ road upset.

The total on this game is already pretty low at 41.5 so it's likely a shy away spot for me. Of course, I always lean toward the under when I'm not overly confident in either team's QB delivering a worthwhile showing.

Cousins is fresh off the Achilles injury, and Russell Wilson is fresh off two bad years in Denver...

Yeah, it's an under for me here.

Props

  • Jaylen Warren has rushed for 27.5 rushing yards in 12 of his last 15 games played (80%).  A perfect 9/9 on the over his rushing total on the road in 2023.
  • He’s also gone over at least 14.5 receiving yards in 73% of his 18 games played in 2023.
  • George Pickens finished with over 52.5 receiving yards in just 44% of his games played in 2023. Fade Pickens.
  • Last season, the Falcons were one of the teams allowing the fewest percentage of fantasy points to the perimeter. Given a tough projected CB matchup with A.J. Terrell and the run-heavy nature of the Steelers, this doesn't scream like a "George Pickens" week. His production will be volatile every week.
  • Kirk Cousins rushed thrice in 2 games last season (8 games played). Over the last two seasons, he's gone over 2.5 rushes in just 27% of his games. Coming off a torn Achilles, he's more likely to get sacked by the Steelers' pass rush than generate any actual rushing production.

My Picks

Chicago (CHI) vs. Tennessee (TEN): CHI -4 

Sides

  • The Titans were 0-8 ATS on the road in 2023.
  • The Titans have lost 10 of their last 11 road games.
  • The Bears were 4-3-1 ATS and 5-3 straight up in their final eight games.
  • Chicago was 63 percent ATS as a favorite in 2023.
  • They have covered the spread in four of their last five home games.

Totals

  • Seven of the Bears' last 10 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • They are 4-1-1 toward the under in their last six games.
  • The Bears finished 4-3-1 toward the over in 2023 at home.
  • Each of the Titans’ last four season openers has gone UNDER the total points line per DraftKings Sportsbook.

Overall.

I love the NFL. Bears QB Caleb Williams is making his first start of his professional career, and he is a heavy home favorite against the Will Levis-led Tennessee Titans. It's odd to see a rookie QB favored this much in their first start ever, but given the optics of the matchup against another relatively inexperienced second-year QB, the spread makes sense. The market feels great about “da Bears” playing at home, with Williams' offense complimented by a strong Bears defense that was a strong unit down the stretch in 2023. Especially when they played at home, Chicago was a MAJOR problem for opposing offenses. They finished 2023 5-1-1 ATS in Justin Fields' last seven starts. 4-3 straight up. But it wasn't all their defense. Fields had his moments fueling an offense that scored 27-plus points in three of their last five games. With Williams and the additional weapons at his disposal, this Titans defense under new DC, Dennard Wilson, might be in for a long day at the office.

All in all, the Bears seem to have every advantage in this game on paper over the visiting Titans. They are playing at home and boast a superior offense/defense. If Williams wasn't a rookie making his first start, this spread would likely be much larger.

Keep in mind that Levis made four full-road starts last season. The Titans lost by 14-plus points twice and went 1-3 ATS.

Still, because Williams is still a rookie (prone to holding onto the ball too long at times), I prefer to bet the under at 44.5 points. My projections have it closer to 42.5, with the full BettingPros projections tabling this game at a 43-point total.

This Bears defense could suffocate the Titans’ offense on the road, as it did to its opponents in the second half of last season. They ended 2023 as the No.1 run defense in the NFL.

And as exciting as Williams looked during the preseason, we should fully expect this offense to grow through some growing pains. Also, both these QBs are notorious for holding onto the ball too long. During the 2024 preseason, the only QB who held onto the ball more than Williams (3.68 average time to throw) was ex-Bears QB, Justin Fields. Levis ranked 12th in the pressure-to-sack rate in 2023.

Holding onto the ball leads to more sacks, which leads to empty drives. Then, considering how many new pieces each team has on the offensive side of the ball, it might be a while until we see points on the scoreboard. The Titans also made a flurry of moves this offseason in free agency and the draft to improve their defense, which was extremely poor (particularly versus the pass) in 2023. They signed Chidobe Awuzie and traded for L'Jarius Sneed to upgrade the secondary. They also drafted T’Vondre Sweat and traded for linebacker Ernest Jones to strengthen their run defense.

Under? Yes, please.

Props

  • The Bears allowed the fourth-most completions per game in 2023. With the Titans finding no room to run against an elite run defense, Will Levis takes advantage with short aDOT throws in Brian Callahan's new offense.
  • Speaking of new offenses. Shane Waldron LOVES Gerald Everett. So much so that they signed him in free agency despite already having Cole Kmet on the roster. Everett played over Kmet at times during the preseason, foreshadowing his underrated role in this offense. 1.5 receptions is a low bar for Everett. He went over that number in 13 of his 15 games played last season in a tight end committee with the Chargers in 2023. Anytime TD bet at long-shot odds? Don’t knock it until you try it.
  • Teams that faced the Bears at home in 2023 ran the ball at the lowest rate in the NFL. There's no better way to kick off the post-Derrick Henry era in Tennessee than with 40 dropbacks from Levis. Slam the under on rushing attempts from Tony Pollard, who is in a 50/50 split with Tyjae Spears. Pollard will have his weeks as a rusher, but it won't come in Week 1. I'd expect both RBs to be used more as receivers (hence the over on Levis completions), given the Bears' weakness last season was against defending RBs in the receiving game.

My Picks

Indianapolis (IND) vs. Houston (HOU): HOU -2.5

Sides

  • These teams played back in Week 18 of the 2023 season. The spread was Texans -1.5. Houston won by four points.
  • The favorites have won each of the Colts' last 12 games.
  • The Colts were 6-0 as favorites in 2023.
  • The Colts are bad to bet as underdogs; the Texans are a bad beat as favorites.
  • The 2023 Colts were 36% ATS as an underdog, going 3-8 overall as an underdog.
  • The Texans were 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as favorites (3-6 ATS as a favorite in 2023)
  • Seven of their last nine wins have been by seven or fewer points.
  • The Colts are one of two home underdogs in Week 1 (New York Giants)
  • Overall, Houston is 10-7 versus the spread over their last 17 games. 8-6-1 in road games ATS.
  • The Texans have covered the spread in four of their last five games against AFC South opponents.

Totals

  • The Colts were 7-2 toward the over at home in 2023. These teams combined for 51 points back in Week 2 of last season. The Colts won after opening as underdogs.
  • Five of the Colts’ last six home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Games played in Lucas Oil Stadium averaged 51.5 points per game in 2023.
  • Three of the Texans' last four road games have gone under the total.
  • The Texans have gone under in 11 of their last 17 games, which featured them playing many offenses that are averaging fewer than 20 points per game.

Overall

It’s the 2023 Week 2 AFC South rematch we have been waiting for. A potential shootout between two QBs drafted inside the top 5 of last year's draft; I am fully anticipating a shootout. As pointed out in the sides notes, you don't want to back the Colts as underdogs and the Texans as favorites. So give me the OVER on this game in the dome, even at the large 48.5 projected total. Both of these teams played their starters to some extent in the preseason, so I am less concerned about slow starts. We should get fireworks in this matchup, with the Colts boasting a roster conducive for "overs." They still have major question marks in their secondary. I fully expect C.J. Stroud to take advantage of operating with his plethora of stud receivers.

This same Week 18 matchup (with Gardner Minshew as the Colts QB1) closed with a 48.5-point total. Add Anthony Richardson, Tank Dell, Adonai Mitchell, Stefon Diggs, and two healthy offensive lines (and Colts kicker Matt Gay dealing with a sports hernia injury) into the fold...I bet you can catch my drift on this game. Take the over, play all the guys in fantasy football, and embrace the player prop overs. Most of them, at least.

Props

  • Dalton Schultz will not be involved enough in this offense alongside three strong WRs to hit his receiving yardage prop. The projections have him hitting the under at 33.2 yards. This number is inflated on his end-of-year production when he went over in five of his last seven games. Nico Collins was the only other healthy Texans WR playing commanding targets during that time frame. Take the under.
  • However, don't do so with Collins. He went over 66.5 receiving yards in both games last season versus the Colts. His production will be bumpy this year with the other weapons in the offense, but based on this matchup, it should be a strong Collins outing.
  • Gus Bradley's defense loves Cover 3, and Collins was the WR3 in yards per route run versus Cover 3 in 2023 per Jacob Gibbs. Also, the Colts’ strongest CB (Kenny Moore) plays in the slot. Collins projects for the most perimeter WR snaps among the Texans’ "Big 3" WRs, setting him up for 60 minutes of favorable looks.
  • But back to tight end unders. No team deploys a TE-by-committee more than the Colts. They wanted Jelani Woods to be “the guy,” but he landed on IR with a toe injury. SMU’s finest, Kylen Granson, is forecasted to be the TE1. But he is listed as the starting F TE on the depth chart, alongside Y TE Mo Alie-Cox. Still, this is just too messy of a situation to confidently back the over. Granson went under 20 yards in 9 of his 15 games played last season (60%).

My Picks

Miami (MIA) vs. Jacksonville (JAC): MIA -3.5

Sides

  • Miami was 6-3 ATS at home in 2023, including a perfect 4-0 through October.
  • They are 10-4 ATS at home as favorites (71%).
  • The Dolphins have won 19 of their last 23 home games.
  • The Jaguars have covered the spread in nine of their last 12 road games.
  • But the Jaguars have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games.
  • The 2023 Jacksonville Jaguars were 7-4 overall as a favorite in 2023 while just 2-4 as an underdog.
  • Miami is sub-20% ATS as an underdog. 1-5 overall in 2023.
  • Miami did not win a game in 2023 while trailing at halftime.

Totals

  • Three of the Jags' last four games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Each of the Jaguars' last five season openers has gone OVER the total points line per DraftKings Sportsbook.
  • The Jaguars have scored 24-plus points in five of their last eight games.
  • Games averaged 49 points scored in Miami in 2023 (4-5 toward the over).

Overall

If you think Colts-Texans will be fun, buckle up for Dolphins-Jaguars (assuming the weather holds up). This should be another easy shootout between two offenses that have major advantages over the defenses they will face. Injuries and free agency eviscerated Miami's defensive line during the offseason. Jalen Ramsey is ‘hopeful” to play in this game.

The Jaguars’ pass defense was horrible last season, and they didn't do much in the offseason to upgrade the secondary.

Only four QBs the Jags faced in 2023 failed to surpass their passing yards projection.

Last season, the Dolphins offense came out of the gates blazing. Against this undermanned Jaguars defense, we should expect similar results in Week 1. But that doesn't mean Jacksonville will go down quietly.

Jacksonville was teed up last season to take the AFC South. They were the heavy betting favorites to start the offseason and were 8-3 at the start of December, with two of their three losses against the teams that played in the Super Bowl. They lost the remaining 5 of 6 games and missed the playoffs entirely. Christian Kirk missed all those games after getting hurt in Week 13's OT loss to the Bengals. Trevor Lawrence played through a high ankle sprain, concussion, and shoulder A/C joint sprain. He missed only one game but was clearly not operating even close to 100%. The Jacksonville OL was also not at 100%. Cam Robinson missed Weeks 12-16. Ezra Cleveland missed games between Weeks 7-14. Walker Little missed Week 14.

The Jaguars were "the" hype team entering last year's offseason, but C.J. Stroud’s Houston Texans have replaced them. Buy the dip and admit we were just a year too early with the Jags.

Lawrence led the NFL in expected passing yards per game in 2023. They are going to SLING it this matchup as they look to keep pace with Miami's red-hot offense. Note that Miami might not have the South Beach heat advantage like they traditionally do in September home matchups, with DUVAL county familiar with Florida conditions.

Props

  • Travis Etienne had at least 2.5 catches in 14 of 17 games last season. He exceeded his 20.5 receiving yards prop in 11 of 17 games last season.
  • Jonnu Smith is way down in the pecking order regarding targets in the Dolphins offense. He's behind the top two WRs and pass-catching RBs like De'Von Achane.
  • Achane is the preferred pass-catching RB in the Dolphins backfield. That's how his usage was last season, and it carried over into this year's preseason usage. Expect him to get peppered with underneath targets. The Jaguars allowed the most catches to RBs in 2023.

My Picks

Buffalo (BUF) vs. Arizona (ARI): BUF -6.5

Sides

  • The Buffalo Bills were 11-5 as a favorite in 2023.
  • But they covered just 43% of their games ATS as favorites. 7-9 ATS.
  • The 2023 Bills were 8-2 and 5-5 ATS at home.
  • Buffalo has failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 15 games. Woof.
  • My projections LOVE Arizona in this spot. I have it closer to a FG spread.
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in each of their last five road openers, per DraftKings Sportsbook.
  • They were 53 percent ATS as underdogs last season.

Totals

  • Buffalo was at an even O/U at home versus the expectation of a team with a high-powered offense.
  • The Bills were 5-5 O/U, averaging under 46 points per game.
  • Five of the last eight Bills' games at home have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Four of the Bills' last five games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Cardinals were an under machine in 2023 on the road (2-5-1).

Overall

Last year, we saw the Bills consistently play down to their competition. They were hardly ever a confident bet against vastly inferior teams, failing to put away bad teams like the Patriots, Chargers, Jets, and Steelers at times during the 2023 season. Their defense is a shell of its former self after injuries took their toll last year. Linebacker Matt Milano is back on IR. Von Miller hasn’t been the same since his injury.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals team overall is vastly underrated on both sides of the ball.

This team played competitive football last season under Jonathan Gannon despite a depleted roster with nothing to play for. In their last seven games, the Cardinals went 5-3 against the spread. They beat the Steelers and Eagles on the road.

I fully expect Gannon to get even more out of this bunch in 2024 after all the improvements they have made on both sides of the football. Marvin Harrison Jr., Max Melton, Evan Brown, and Jonah Williams will all be key contributors.

This pass defense was underrated last year. Entering Week 18, the Cardinals allowed the second-fewest receptions to tight ends. They have also faced the third-fewest targets to WRs. Over the last four weeks of the year, Arizona allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to WRs.

Part of that is because the Cardinals were so bad against the run. But that's exactly why the under is the other play I love in this matchup. The Joe Brady-led Bills offense wants to run the football, which they will do in this exploitable matchup against a suspect run defense to not put as much pressure on Josh Allen and all his new receivers.

I also expect the Cardinals to do the same. They will run the football with a healthy James Conner, just like they did down the stretch after Kyler Murray came back into the lineup last season. Based on the quarterbacks under center, this game looks like a shootout, but the offensive philosophies from both sides suggest a lot of rushing attempts that will eat up the clock and result in fewer total points.

The fact that I think this game is going to be lower scoring also plays into taking the Cardinals +6.5 as they look to hang around a team that failed to put inferior teams away in 2023. And I'd go as far as suggesting the Cardinals aren't even that bad of a team with a healthy Kyler Muray.

The last time Murray started the majority of an NFL season (2021, 14 games), the team was 9-5. The team opened 7-1 before Murray’s ankle injury derailed the Cardinals' momentum.

Props

  • The Cardinals were a top-six unit against slot WRs in 2023. Khalil Shakir projects to mix in the slot in 2024, but his receiving prop is the highest among all the Bills WRs for Week 1 at 47.5 yards. The projection is coming HEAVY toward the under at 40.5. Last season, Shakir went over this number just twice in nine games after Brady took over play-calling duties.
  • Conner saw fewer than 12 carries just once after returning to the starting lineup back in Week 10. I don't expect rookie RB Trey Benson to have a meaningful role unless Conner gets hurt. Over on Conner and under on Benson.

My Picks

Cincinnati (CIN) vs. New England (NE): CIN -8.5

Sides

  • The Bengals have won 13 of their last 16 home games.
  • The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven games in September.
  • New England finished last season 5-11 ATS.
  • They are 5-6 ATS as underdogs in their last 11 road games.
  • The Bengals are 9-4-1 ATS (69%) as home favorites. 12-3 straight up at home.

Totals

  • Each of the Bengals’ last five games as favorites has gone OVER the total points line per DraftKings Sportsbook.
  • The Bengals were 5-4 toward the over in 2023, with games averaging 43 points per game.
  • Eight of the Bengals' last nine games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Four of the last five Patriots' games have gone over the projected game total.

Overall

As a Patriots fan, I have trouble handicapping the best way to approach this game from a betting standpoint. New England is heading on the road to take on a Super Bowl contender, where they will undoubtedly try to run the ball and play defense to keep things tight. Call it the new “Patriot Way.” The Bengals’ defense was bad against the run last season, and it remains to be seen how Sheldon Rankins will replace D.J. Reader on the interior.

The Patriots’ biggest concern is how they will combat their pass protection issues upfront while playing in a hostile environment.

But we've seen this Bengals offense operate with a healthy Joe Burrow. And the Patriots defense isn't as good as it was last year. Missing DT Christian Barmore due to a blood clot diagnosis is going to show up in the team's run defense. Matt Judon was expected to boost the pass rush, but he was traded to the Falcons this offseason in the final year of his contract. And losing Bill Belichick as the defensive play-caller will matter in the long run when we compare this 2024 New England defense to the 2023 version.

I'd like to easily just take the Bengals -8 and move on, but this is the NFL. Teams (even the bad ones) don't go down quietly. Remember that the Patriots under Bailey Zappe were 3-3 ATS last season.  In fact, over the last nine games New England played in 2023, seven of the final scores have been decided by six or fewer points. They lost to KC at home by 10 points and to the Jets by 14 points.

Given the hot streaks, both teams entered this game within terms of overs - I'll just opt for the under on the game total with regression pending. The Patriots are 10-7 toward the under in their last 17 games.

However, for those looking to cash in on some closing line value it might make some sense to take an early stance on the Bengals before Ja'Marr Chase signs his new deal. That will likely flow money for Cincy moving the line back toward Bengals -9.

So, if you want the Bengals’ action, act sooner rather than later. As for the Patriots’ side, wait until this line gets larger. As BettingPros analyst Terrell Furman pointed out in our BettingPros Week 1 best bets podcast, Patriots QB Jacoby Brissett is underrated as a starter. Against spreads that were +8 back in 2022, Brissett would have finished 8-2-1 ATS. The Bengals are a heavy public team as a large home favorite. Fade the public by backing the Patriots. The Bengals have been slow starters in years past, and they may not feel the need to push the needle against an opponent like the Patriots.

Props

  • The Patriots ranked seventh in red zone touches allowed to RBs in 2023. But they finished just middle-of-the-pack in rushing TDs allowed (10). Without DT Christian Barmore plugging up the interior, I expect the Bengals to be able to run the ball effectively. Expect FA-acquisition Zack Moss to see ample opportunities around the goal line and score in this spot as heavy home favorites.
  • The Patriots’ second-round pick projects to have a substantial role in Week 1, given the severe lack of WR depth in the Patriots roster. In three preseason games, Ja’Lynn Polk caught at least two passes in all contests (while seeing at least three targets) on limited work. In a full game with New England chasing points, expect Polk to go over 2.5 catches in his rookie debut. He was listed as a starter in the Patriots' Week 1 depth chart alongside K.J. Osborn and DeMario Douglas.
  • Hunter Henry’s anytime TD odds are bonkers. +500 is way too long for the No. 1 red-zone target albeit on the Patriots’ offense. I don’t expect New England to get shut out completely. Alex Van Pelt is familiar with the Bengals’ defense during his tenure in Cleveland, and he knows he can expose it with TEs. Last year, the Bengals were the second-worst defense against TEs, allowing the most catches to the position. If the Patriots get close to scoring in the red zone, it’s going to Henry.

My Picks

New Orleans (NO) vs. Carolina (CAR): NO -4

Sides

  • The Panthers have lost their last nine road games.
  • Carolina didn't cover the spread on the road once in 2023. Regression should be coming under new head coach Dave Canales.
  • The 2023 Buccaneers (Canales was the OC) were 8-2 ATS on the road.
  • The Saints have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games in September.
  • The Saints opened last season 0-5 ATS at home.
  • The Saints have failed to cover the spread in 9 of their last 13 games against NFC opponents.

Totals

  • Saints games averaged 44 points per game at home in 2023 (3-5 toward the over)
  • These two teams combined for a total record of 11-23 toward the over in 2023 (32%)
  • Ten of the Saints’ last 11 games against NFC South opponents have gone UNDER the total points line per DraftKings Sportsbook.
  • The Panthers have scored zero points in their last two games.
  • The 2023 Panthers scored more than 23 points twice with Bryce Young at QB.
  • Nine of the Panthers' last 11 games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall

This is way too many points for the Saints at -3.5. It opened at -4 so it has moved down, by my projections have it pegged at Saints -1.

Dave Canales is in as the Panthers’ new head coach, and I expect him to provide an immediate impact on the Panthers franchise. He's increased the offensive production of both Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield in back-to-back seasons. And his offensive play calling was a big reason why the Buccaneers were so effective covering the spread on the road last season. I fully expect that trend to carry over with his new team in 2024.

This current Panthers team is far from its 2023 version, with all the additions they have made, specifically on the offensive side of the ball.

Back the Panthers against a fraudulent Saints team at home, led by Dennis Allen, who owns the shortest odds to be the first coach fired in 2024. Allen owns the league’s worst record ATS as a favorite among current head coaches at 7-15-1 (32.6%) per BetMGM.

The lock of the week is Panthers +4. But if you are feeling frisky (just like the cardiac cats), I recommend sprinkling on some Panthers ML action at +170 (ESPN Bet).

Props

  • We saw Canales' offense in two games last season with the Buccaneers against the Saints’ defense. In both games, Baker Mayfield attempted 32-plus passes, while Rachaad White’s ground game was limited to under 60 rushing yards. This could be an opportunity for some sneaky passing volume from Carolina.
  • FWIW, the Saints were a slot funnel defense in 2023, allowing more than twice the production to slot WRs than perimeter ones this season.
  • Keep an eye out for props on Ja’Tavion Sanders (receiving props, anytime TDs, etc.). Both of the Panthers’ current TEs ahead of him on the depth chart – Ian Thomas and Tommy Tremble – have missed practice for weeks. Both were DNPs on Thursday.

My Picks

New York Giants (NYG) vs. Minnesota (MIN): NYG +1.5

Sides

  • The Giants were the 6th-best team ATS at home in 2023 (5-2-1).
  • They finished 6-2 ATS over their last eight games.
  • The Vikings have lost each of their last five road openers.
  • The Vikings have failed to cover the spread in their last six games.
  • All but four of the Vikings' 16 games played last season were decided by eight points or less.

Totals

  • MetLife Stadium was 6-11 toward the over in 2023, averaging 35 points per game.
  • Six of the Giants' last eight home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Each of the Giants’ last 10 home openers has gone UNDER the total points line per DraftKings Sportsbook.
  • New York has scored 20-plus points in 5 of their last six games.
  • The team is 5-3 toward the over in the Giants’ last eight games. Point totals of 51, 66, 46, 50, and 58 when the games have gone over.

Overall

Why should the Vikings be 1.5-point favorites on the road? Because Daniel Jones threw an ugly preseason pick-six? Because when you look at how both teams responded to their own QB injuries down the stretch in 2023, it was the Giants and not the Vikings that were rising to the occasion against the spread? We know that both teams have starting QBs that invite chaos. Turnovers and sacks will be plentiful in this matchup.

A fourth-quarter turnover by either Jones or Sam Darnold will likely decide the winner of the game. Brian Flores’ blitz-heavy scheme suggests we will see chaos ensue from the get-go.

With the matchup closer to a pick 'em in my projections, I'll bet against Darnold as a road favorite against the Giants. New York's defense has a slight edge compared to the Vikings, who might have trouble containing rookie sensation Malik Nabers. The Vikings are running out retread cornerbacks such as Shaq Griffin and Stephon Gillmore.

That being said, it's not as if Big Blue will have many answers for Minnesota's explosive playmakers, such as Justin Jefferson, Aaron Jones, and Jordan Addison.

MetLife Stadium is usually home to unders in NFL betting. But this matchup represents a certain value in two chaotic QBs that will potentially generate big plays for both teams.

Props

The Vikings allowed the most completions per game in 2023. Daniel Jones led the NFL in adjusted completion percentage in 2022.

My Picks

Seattle (SEA) vs. Denver (DEN): SEA -6

Sides

  • Seattle is 7-2 as a favorite last nine games.
  • The favorites have won 13 of the Seahawks' last 15 games.
  • Seattle is 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games played (3-5 over the last seven games).
  • The Seahawks were 3-4-1 at home as favorites ATS.
  • The Seahawks have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five games as favorites.
  • The Broncos were 2-6 ATS on the road in 2023 (2-game losing streak).

Totals

  • Nine of the Broncos' last 13 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Four of the Seahawks’ last five games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall

Bo Nix will make his first NFL start on the road against the Seattle Seahawks, led by their new head coach, Mike Macdonald. Macdonald was hired after his Baltimore Ravens defense posted historic numbers in 2023. The expectation is that his Seahawks defense will be a large part of the team's identity in 2024. Improving the defense will go a long way for Seattle to bounce back after a down 2023 season, as there were moments where they had total defensive lapses (especially defending the run). Although Macdonald's scheme is complex for the new Seattle pieces to learn, I'm not confident this Broncos offense will be able to take full advantage of it. Seattle has made offseason moves to improve their personnel upfront by drafting Byron Murphy II and re-signing Leonard Williams.

I am also very skeptical that Denver’s poor pass rush unit (which had the fourth-worst pressure rate in 2023) can take advantage of Seattle’s question marks across the offensive line.

Fading rookie QBs in their first starts typically is a safe bet to make, as rookie QBs have a 16-35-1 record in openers, including a 0-7-1 mark the past five seasons per AP News. Macdonald's defense in Baltimore took care of business last year at home versus eventually 2024 offensive rookie of the year, C.J. Stroud, winning 25-9. Look for Seattle to break their 5-game streak of failing to cover the spread with a big win (and Macdonald's first) over the Broncos. Consider me skeptical that Nix's preseason performance will carry over into regular-season games.

Seattle has so much more talent than the Broncos… I don’t want to overthink this matchup.

Props

  • Denver allowed the most rushing yards per to RBs in 2023. Twelve of the last 15 RBs they faced went OVER their projected rushing totals last year. Expect a massive game for Kenneth Walker III, who has been talked up as a three-down workhorse this season.
  • The Broncos have one elite player on their defense. CB Patrick Surtain. If he locks up DK Metcalf, that should open the target floodgates for second-year WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Tyler Lockett and Noah Fant have also been missing extensive practice time with injuries the last few weeks, setting the stage for a massive Week 1 game for JSN. The last 10 WRs most comparable to JSN to face Denver have gone OVER their projected receiving totals per the BettingPros Prop Analyzer.

My Picks

Los Angeles Chargers (LAC) vs. Las Vegas (LV): LAC -3

Sides

  • The Raiders are 8-1-1 ATS over their last 10 games.
  • The Raiders have covered the spread in each of their last four games.
  • The Chargers have lost eight of their last nine games.
  • The Chargers have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last nine games.
  • LAC was 4-5 as a favorite in 2023.

Totals

  • Each of the Chargers’ last seven games as favorites has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Twelve of the Chargers' last 15 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • These two teams averaged 42 points scored in 2023.
  • SoFi Stadium was 6-11 toward the over in 2023 between the Rams/Chargers.
  • Six of the Raiders' last 10 games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall

I can't help but think this Chargers -3 line is being fueled solely by Jim Harbaugh taking over as the Chargers head coach. Because we know there's no home-field advantage for the Chargers. And nothing about how last year ended suggested that the Las Vegas Raiders are the vastly inferior team against the spread.

Per Givemesport.com, "Harbaugh has been a head coach for 20 seasons in the NCAA and NFL, going 16-4 in season openers overall. In his previous stint in the NFL with the 49ers, he was 4-0 in season openers, winning by an average margin of 10.3 points. With San Diego, Stanford, and Michigan, he was 12-4 in season openers, with his last loss coming in 2018."

Meanwhile, we've seen the shine go away on a number of interim head coaches the year AFTER they become the head honcho for the same franchise. Performing above low expectations versus rising ones are two different conversations.

All in all, I don't feel comfortable backing this Raiders offense with Gardner Minshew as quarterback, even as a three-point underdog. I'm sure Harbaugh is using last year's embarrassing 63-21 loss the last time these teams played as motivation for the Chargers players that were part of that game.

If I had to pick a side, it's the Chargers (final last words). But this is most likely a stay-away game for me from a side perspective. Justin Herbert played zero snaps during the preseason, so I am concerned they might come out of the gates slow.

Still, I'm more confident projecting both teams to rely on their respective ground games; therefore, I’m slamming the under on this total even at 40.5 points.

Props

  • Only one QB the Raiders faced has thrown for 300-plus yards in 2023. Fully expect LA to pound the rock with J.K. Dobbins leading the charge. Before his injury, Dobbins, at the end of the 2022 season, hit the "over" on his rushing line for five straight weeks.
  • Josh Palmer went over 77 receiving yards in both his games against the Las Vegas Raiders in 2023. As the main Chargers WR who has built-in chemistry with Justin Herbert, I expect Palmer to see a lot of looks in Week 1. D.J. Chark Jr. is out. Be sure to bet those Quentin Johnston unders.

My Picks

Cleveland (CLE) vs. Dallas (DAL): CLE -2.5

Sides

  • The Browns have won eight of their last nine games as favorites.
  • 8-1 on the ML at home. 9-2 as a favorite.
  • Dallas was 4-5 on the road toward the over and ATS in 2023.
  • The favorites have won 14 of the Cowboys' last 15 games.
  • The overall favorites have covered the spread in 15 of the Cowboys' last 19 games.

Totals

  • The Browns were 2-7 toward the over at home in 2023.
  • Nine of the Cowboys' last 14 games have gone OVER the projected total, with their offense firing on all cylinders the last eight of 12 games through the air.
  • In 2023, Dallas finished with 12 straight games with 300-plus yards on offense and scored 20-plus points in all games except for their back-to-back road losses (both unders).

Overall

There was no line I was more surprised by when I first looked at the Week 1 NFL lineup than the Browns-Cowboys. I was shocked that the Brownies were outright favored over the Cowboys, and there were many question marks about Deshaun Watson’s health. But when you look at Dallas' track record combined with how great the Browns’ defense played at home in 2023, you start to understand where these lines came from. This a matchup between two teams that went 8-1 at home in 2023.

The market is heavily weighing these home/road splits. But I think we may have gone just a step too far to where the inferior team is being favored. Again, it's any given Sunday. Anything can happen in professional football. The value of the Cowboys on the ML seems just too good of a value to pass on. But that's why I am shying away entirely from the sides in this game. Like it or not, the Browns are favored for a reason. Myles Garrett will be facing rookie LT Tyler Guyton off the edge in his first NFL start.

I noted the Cowboys’ home/road splits. And Dallas, as an underdog, has not been a profitable wager whatsoever, going 0-6 on the money line as an underdog in their last six games. Many are concerned about the health of Deshaun Watson, but the bookmakers don't seem to be swayed.

As noted above, the favorites win these games more often than not. So, as juicy as the Dallas ML looks on paper, the value means nothing unless we see Dallas go into Cleveland and pull out a W.

I'll opt for both defenses giving these QBs problems and take the under on the game total instead. Browns star OT Jerick Wills doesn’t look probable to play. Jack Conklin is also questionable. Both teams didn’t play their starters in the preseason.  If the Browns win (as Vegas projects), it will likely be winning ugly. Ugly wins are almost exclusively accompanied by unders.

Props

  • David Njoku caught more than four passes in just one of Deshaun Watson's five full starts last season. Dallas also allowed the fewest catches to TEs in 2023.
  • Jerome Ford averaged 11.8 Rush ATTs per game last season in 18 games played. As the expected bell cow facing a “leaky” Dallas Cowboys run defense, Ford should get a solid run as the Browns RB1 while the team eases Deshaun Watson back into the starting lineup.
  • All indications are that Rico Dowdle will be the starting RB for the Dallas Cowboys in Week 1. Simply put, 25.5 rushing yards is just too low of a number for a starter. He is also explosive enough to rip off a big run or two if he sees more of a split workload with Ezekiel Elliott. Speaking of which, I might even like the under on Zeke’s rushing prop at 31.5 rushing yards more than the over on Dowdle. The Browns allowed fewer than 4.0 yards per carry at home in 2023.

My Picks

Tampa Bay (TB) vs. Washington (WAS): TB -3.5

Sides

  • The Commanders have lost each of their last eight games.
  • The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven games.
  • Washington has covered as an underdog in 50% of their games in 2023.
  • Tampa Bay is 4-1-1 ATS as a home favorite in their six games.
  • The Underdogs have won five of the last seven Buccaneers' games.

Totals

  • Six of the Commanders' last eight games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The one "under" was a 48-point game that narrowly hit the under.
  • When Washington didn't allow 20 points on defense last season, they were a perfect 4-0 toward the under; when they allowed at least 20 points on defense - 10-3 toward the OVER.
  • Tampa Bay averaged 35 points total at home in 2023 (2-7 record toward the over).
  • No. 1 red-zone defense in the NFL at home in 2023.

Overall

Jayden Daniels will make his first NFL start on the road in Tampa Bay. He will start behind a shaky offensive line against a fierce Buccaneers defensive front. He is going to be running. A lot.

Meanwhile, Baker Mayfield will take on Dan Quinn's Washington defense, which still lacks the personnel to be a strong, well-rounded unit. Quinn will eventually get the most of what he can from this bunch, but asking Emmanuel Forbes to cover Mike Evans just isn't going to work. The Buccaneers have an improved OL, so Mayfield can get the ball to Evans, Chris Godwin, etc. more than enough to cover the 3.5 point spread.

The Buccaneers have been solid bets as home favorites in their last six games as favorites, and it remains to be seen whether the Daniels-Kliff Kingsbury combination is a match made in heaven. I think in the long run, Daniels will win the OROY award. But I am going to temper my expectations in Week 1 that they keep this game within a field goal.

Props

  • Zach Ertz averaged 3.9 Recs per game last season in seven games played. What defense allowed the most targets and second-most catches/yards to TEs in 2023? The Buccaneers.

My Picks

Detroit (DET) vs. Los Angeles Rams (LAR): DET -4.5

Sides

  • Jared Goff is 7-0 ATS in Week 1.
  • The Lions have won eight of their last nine home games.
  • The Lions have covered the spread as favorites in four of their last five games.
  • The Detroit Lions are 9-5 ATS over their last 14 games.
  • The Lions are the No. 1-ranked team ATS since Dan Campbell was hired to be the head coach (72%). The most profitable teams against the spread to bet on since the halfway point of the 2021 season.
  • The Rams have won six of their last seven games against NFC opponents.
  • The Lions were 69% ATS as favorites in 2023. The Rams were just 55% ATS as underdogs in 2023.
  • The Rams 2023 starters were 1-7 as underdogs straight up.
  • The favorites have won ten of the Rams' last 11 games.

Totals

  • Twelve of the Lions’ last 13 season openers have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Lions have scored first in each of their last seven games.
  • Five of the Rams' last seven games with their starters have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Rams are 6-7 toward the O/U in their last 13 games.
  • Against offenses other than the Browns, Cardinals, Seahawks, or injury-plagued Bengals, the Rams allowed at least 20 points on defense in 2023. Only four times in 2023 has the defense allowed fewer than 300 yards of offense.
  • The average total in the Lions' last 19 home games has been 55 points; 79 percent (15/19) of the games have scored at least 51 points.
  • Five of the Lions' last six home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Lions' last 12 games have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall

We saw these two teams face off in the first round of the NFC playoffs last season. The Lions emerged victorious 24-23. The Rams covered the 3-point spread while the game went UNDER the 52-point closing total. The Lions were up big in the game (14-3) before a 50-yard TD to Puka Nacua closed the gap.

In a heavyweight rematch between two NFC contenders, my lean is simple. Give me the Lions as favorites at home.

The Lions were one best team ATS in 2023 especially when they were favored at home (69%). They are all-in on this season equipped with top-tier playmakers and elite offensive line to protect Jared Goff. Good teams win. Great teams cover. I'll run through a wall for Dan Campbell.

And for one, am skeptical this Rams defense will stop anybody after losing Aaron Donald. They performed well above expectations last season with not many marquee names. They won't be as lucky in 2024, especially in Week 1. On Thursday, they placed CB Darious Williams on IR.

Now to the total. This one is easy. Over.

Here is one of my favorite stats about Ford Field from last season. It's the Coors Field of the NFL. Overs, overs, and more overs. Last year alone, Lions games were 7-3 toward the over, with games averaging nearly 52 total points. The fact that this game stayed under the total when these teams last played makes me even more bullish that we get a long-awaited shootout.

Props

  • The Rams are expected to deploy more of a 1-2 bunch at running back this year, as opposed to how they deployed Kyren Williams with a 90% plus snap share. Blake Corum should get some steady run in a back-and-forth contest. Lions DT D.J. Reader was listed on the injury report, so Detroit’s run defense might not be its stout self in Week 1.

My Picks

San Francisco (SF) vs. New York Jets (NYJ): SF -4

Sides

  • The 49ers were the most overrated team at home ATS, going 3-7, which was fourth-worst in the NFL in 2023.
  • The road team has covered the spread in each of the 49ers' last 12 games.
  • The 49ers have not covered the spread in their last seven home games.
  • SF is 10-4 ATS when they score 23 or more points in 2023.
  • The 49ers’ offense was one of the healthiest in the NFL in terms of adjusted games lost last season, while the 2023 Jets’ offense was one of the worst.
  • The Jets have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 11 games.
  • The Jets have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six road games.
  • The 2023 Jets were 6-10-1 ATS in 2023.
  • The Jets were 43% ATS as an underdog, 5-9 overall in 2023.
  • The favorites have won the first half in 15 of the Jets' last 17 games.

Totals

  • Nine of the 49ers’ last 10 season openers have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Five of the Jets' last six road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Jets' last 12 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Both teams boasted top 10 red zone defenses in 2023.
  • Prime time under close to 75% over the past two seasons.

Overall

Let the season-long fade of the San Franciso 49ers commence. Last season, this team was vastly overrated by ATS as home favorites. They were viewed as a "juggernaut" but never quite lived up to expectations. And we saw what happened to the offense when any of the key offensive pieces missed time. Fast forward to 2024, and the vibes in the Bay Area haven't been glowing. Trent Williams and Brandon Aiyuk are back, but they've missed almost the entire preseason due to contract holdouts. Chrisitan McCaffrey has also missed time dealing with a calf injury. Then, consider the team was forced to place first-rounder Ricky Pearsall on the NFI list after he was shot in an attempted robbery. This has hardly been an ideal off-season for a team looking to fend off the Super Bowl hangover. I do not believe them to be that fortunate.

Then you have the Jets, who are all-in on the 2024 season after a nightmarish 2023 campaign. However, the optics of their roster have improved ten-fold, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Aaron Rodgers is set out to prove something this year as a legitimate AFC contender, and I think they will show it on Monday night.

Props

  • Mike Williams is returning from a torn ACL. He could easily be on a snap count in Week 1. Not to mention, he's playing with Aaron Rodgers for the first time ever. Rodgers always goes to the guys he trusts, and I find it hard to believe Big Mike will be his go-to guy in the season opener.
  • Elijah Mitchell was inactive during weeks 2,4,5, 14, 15, and 16 of the 2023 regular season. Deebo Samuel saw at least three carries in four of those six contests. That's more than enough volume to get him over 10 yards in Week 1. Look for Sameul to shoulder some early-season rushing work with CMC returning from his own injury and Mitchell on the IR.
  • Brandon Aiyuk has a horrible matchup this week against one of the league’s best secondaries. Coming off a completely truncated offseason, you don’t need to squint to see Aiyuk having a down game in Week 1. Keep in mind that last year, in Aiyuk’s final 10 games, he was under this number (while completely integrated with the 49ers offense) in 6 of his last 10.

My Picks

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