NFL Week 1 Early Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)
The NFL is back, and everything feels right again. Every fanbase (except the Cardinals) has high hopes for how this season can go if everything breaks just right.
Early in the season is my favorite time for making bets. There is still so much unknown, so it's a fun time to bet your instincts and attack lines that don't seem right to you. With that in mind, here is a 3-leg parlay that I have bet for Week 1.
Early NFL Week 1 Parlay
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Leg 1 - Pittsburgh Steelers ML (+118) vs. San Francisco 49ers
When TJ Watt was healthy and on the field, the Steelers allowed the fewest total yards per game over their last nine games in 2022. The Steelers went 7-2 over that period but seem to be getting less recognition than the Detroit Lions for how they finished the season.
The 49ers are one of the favorites to win the NFC this year, but the last time we saw them in action, Christian McCaffrey was taking snaps at quarterback after an elbow injury ended the playoffs for Brock Purdy. Initially, there were questions about the timetable and whether Purdy could make it back early this season. It is now reported that Purdy will be starting Week 1 vs. the Steelers.
Going back to the unknown vs. known factors early in the season, we don't know how Purdy will respond to the elbow injury, but we do know that TJ Watt will at least be healthy for the opening snap. I like the Steelers moneyline at home getting plus money in Week 1.
Leg 2 – Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens Over 44 (-110)
There is so much unknown about both of these teams. Houston has a new rookie quarterback and a new rookie head coach. The Ravens have a new offensive coordinator and scheme. They have also revamped their wide receiver room this off-season.
What we do know is that in 2022, Houston ranked 30th in total yards allowed, and Baltimore ranked 26th in passing yards allowed. We also know that Marlon Humphrey will miss Week 1 with an injury.
I don't know if I believe CJ Stroud will be able to put up a lot of points in his first career start. I do believe a newly signed and happy Lamar Jackson, a wide receiver room with Rashod Bateman, Odell Beckham Jr., Zay Flowers, and a somewhat healthy J.K. Dobbins can put up a lot of points. As a result, I could see some garbage time scores by Houston against a team playing prevent defense and missing Marlon Humphrey.
Leg 3 – Seattle Seahawks -5.5 (-114) vs. Los Angeles Rams
We all know the Rams went all-in to win their Super Bowl two years ago. Now, we are going to see the consequences of those moves. After trading away, cutting, and letting free agents walk, the Rams roster looks very different than it did during that Super Bowl run. Of the players still around, health is a significant concern for the Rams. Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp have both struggled with injuries; Kupp's status for week 1 is still unknown.
The Seahawks were one of the biggest surprises from the 2022 season. After trading away Russell Wilson, it seemed like they were entering a rebuilding stage. Then Geno Smith outperformed expectations, and the Seahawks had an unbelievably successful draft, landing multiple starters, including two tackles and a cornerback who finished 3rd in Defensive Rookie of the Year voting. Since making the playoffs, they've added the top rookie CB and WR in the draft. I wonder if we may see a similar situation to last year's Jets, who, in one draft, were able to get both the Offensive and Defensive Rookies of the Year.
3-Leg Parlay (+681)
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