NFL Week 1 Line Movement Analysis: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

Ladies and Gentlemen, the NFL season is finally here!

After a long off-season, football is back, and it starts with the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Detroit Lions. The Chiefs look not only to defend their Super Bowl title but claim their third championship in five years. 

Every week, we will keep tabs on all the NFL Lines, dissecting any major movements that may have happened. Let’s get to it for Week 1.

NFL Week 1 Line Movement

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Detroit Lions @ Kansas City Chiefs

Open: KC -6.5

Current: KC -4.5

DraftKings opened this game in May when they set the line at Chiefs -6.5. For the most part, this line jumped to KC -7 and stayed for a while until it was bought back down to -6.5 in mid-August. 

Over the past two days, the line has dropped to -4.5, primarily due to the Travis Kelce injury news. 

Yesterday, Chiefs” head coach Andy Reid told reporters that Travis Kelce hyper-extended his knee at practice, and his status for Thursday night was questionable. To be exact, ESPN’s Adam Schefter tweeted that out at 2:06 p.m. At 2:10 p.m., DraftKings saw heavy money come in on the Lions and dropped the line to 5.5. After sitting at 5.5 most of the night, DK dropped the line again to 4.5 as of 4:12 Wednesday morning. 

Circa Resort and Casino in Las Vegas currently has the lowest line with the Chiefs at -4.

Arizona Cardinals @ Washington Commanders

Open: WAS -5.5

Current: WAS -7

DraftKings opened with the Commanders as 5.5-point favorites. Within the first week the lines were posted, Washington moved up to 6-point favorites and stayed the same until late August. 

There has been a lot of concussion or uncertainty regarding the QB situation in Arizona until now. We didn’t know what was going on with Kyler Murray as he recovered from off-season surgery, but late last week, the Cardinals announced they would keep the QB on the PUP list, ensuring he won’t be playing in the first four weeks of the season.

Shockingly, the Cardinals cut Veteran QB Colt McCoy and traded for Cleveland Browns QB Josh Dobbs. It’s still unclear who will be the Week 1 starter, whether it be Dobbs or rookie Clayton Tune. 

The line movement could be attributed to a few factors. One being a good first impression by Sam Howell and the rest of the starters in the preseason. Washington went a perfect 3-0 this preseason, including a win against the Ravens, ending their historic preseason winning streak.

In the two games, Howell played in two games, going a combined 28/52 with 265 passing yards and three touchdowns.

The fact that this line has reached the key number of 7 and has stayed there without any buyback should tell you that this Washington Commanders team should win and cover the spread easily; at least, that’s what the market is showing.

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