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NFL Week 2 Line Report: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

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Welcome back to my Week 2 NFL Line Report at BettingPros featuring my custom cost-per-point betting analysis. If you’re unfamiliar with the concept, I encourage you to check out last week’s introduction. Long story short, NFL prices aren’t standardized, and therefore not all points are priced equally. I’m going to run valuations on the betting board and chart prices each week to identify which scenarios are advantageous to bet the ML versus ATS (and vice-versa).

NFL Week 2 Line Report

Overnight Line Moves Since the Open

NYJ moved from (+8.5) to (+9) at DAL
No surprises whatsoever after the fallout from the Aaron Rodgers news plus the Jets’ obvious discomfort moving forward with Zach Wilson. $30 per point still feels like it’s on the heavy side to me. I’m fully expecting a continuation in movement to (+9.5) sooner rather than later. Keep this one circled for a potential Wong teaser.

SF moved from (-8) to (-7.5) at LAR
I was slightly shocked to see the line move away from San Fran after the most well-rounded Week 1 performance in the league. That said, more than anything this feels like a statement on the Ram’s viability providing Matthew Stafford is upright. If you like the 49ers in this spot, now’s the time to bet it. At north of $31 per point, I think we’ll easily get to (-8) again before the close. Could be an interesting teaser pair with the Cowboys.

BAL moved from (+3) to (+3.5) at CIN
Injuries to linemen Ronnie Stanley and Tyler Linderbaum pushed the line beyond a field goal despite the Bengals’ putrid play on Sunday. Pricing per point on this game has fallen into the fair value range where I think it will stick unless more news is released. If you like Baltimore, I’d be proactive and make my move before I lose the hook.

NYG moved from (-4) to (-5.5) at ARI
The market’s obviously not buying the Week 1 results, as well as it shouldn’t. The (-4) open feels like a misprice at this point considering the disparity in QB talent and coaching. Price started to settle in a fair range just north of $20 per point but I don’t necessarily think it’s done there. Without that wonky defensive TD versus the Commanders, this one might be more than a TD.

GB moved from (-1) to (-2) at ATL
Given the Packers and Falcons are two of the harder teams to get a read on, the tight pricing here should come as no surprise. No signals on line direction, but keep in mind the single-digit cost per point. It doesn’t tell you who to bet, but it’s invaluable in identifying how.

IND moved from (+1) to (-1) at HOU
Early questions about Anthony Richardson’s availability caused lines to open with HOU as a slight favorite. The Colts came out and said their rookie QB was totally fine which immediately pushed the line across zero.

NFL Week 1 Cost Analysis-Based Expected Line Moves

NYJ should move to (+9.5) from (+9) at DAL
This line’s been moving slowly with a legitimate shot to close in the double digits on late-week action. During this experiment, I’ve noticed that large intra-game differences in costs per point among teams (like we have here) can act as an indicator of potential price movement.

SF should move to at least (-8) at LAR
Not only are San Fran’s points over the critical $30 mark but there’s also another wide +$7 disparity between the 49ers and Rams. This (-7.5) line really feels like a best-price scenario if you like the Niners.

LV should move to least (+9) at BUF
From a valuation standpoint, again we get both leading indicators for movement. Buffalo’s carrying +$30 per point to the spread with more than a $7 difference from the Raiders. The Bills’ injury report came back clean after MNF and I think the public will end up piling on BUF to bounce back this weekend.

NFL Week 1 Favorites with Value on the Moneyline versus ATS

NFL Week 1 Underdogs with Value ATS vs. On the Moneyline

As usual, most of the ML values for favorites and ATS values for dogs will be found in the most closely-capped contests. It may seem insignificant to some, but winning in sports betting happens on the margins. In my opinion, identifying where to avoid premium pricing is paramount to success. Notice how I rearranged the chart below to read valuations more easily rather than using clunky chronological order. While oftentimes point pricing is related to the total spread, it’s not perfectly correlated; and those outliers are where we want to strike.

    Week 2 BET: MIA ML (-135) to win 1 unit

    When considering both sides of the ball I think the Miami Dolphins are the best coached team in the NFL. Then we also get exposure to the team with the most yards per game, yards per play, passing yards per attempt, EPA/Play, and average drive distance without breaking the bank with juice. While Tua and Tyreek are healthy, this isn’t a more explosive battery in the league, nor a conceivable way to stop them. Yes, New England outperformed expectations on offense against Philadelphia, but I think Vic Fangio will scheme up the MIA secondary to limit any verticality from the Pats. New England gets over on defense by using lots of pressure and blitz packages but there’s nobody more well-equipped to counter that than Tua Tagovailoa. Not only was Tua top-7 in time to throw, but his YPA was more than four yards greater than anyone in his vicinity.

    Even if this one’s close out of the gate, I don’t think New England can keep pace literally or figuratively with the Dolphins. I’m ignoring the spread as the book’s offer of $10 per point is too low for a divisional matchup against a quality opponent. Give me the Fins for the outright win.

    Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:


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