NFL Week 1 Line Report: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)
A hearty hello to all my new friends, NFL bettors, and fellow edge-seekers out there. I could not possibly be more honored or excited to be welcomed into the BettingPros family. Let’s get right to work. There’s not one second to spare as we approach the NFL Sunday kickoff.
A Brief Introduction To Cost Per Point Analysis
In the coming weeks, I promise to expand on the history, working theory, and application of this work. For now, the long and short of it is simple: Pricing in betting markets isn’t currently standardized, therefore creating an immediate benefit in doing cost analysis. Every game yields a unique result, and serious bettors recognize the worth of better understanding this NFL pricing mechanism. Too often, touts and recreational bettors alike instinctively run to wager against the spread without proper due diligence. I’ll be visualizing this theory for you weekly by charting DraftKings Sportsbook lines using a (-110) price as a standard against the spread. This intuitive and even simple method will highlight when it’s advantageous to bet to cover or instead play for the outright win.
Think of it this way. I’m going to do my best to stop you from paying for points you shouldn’t.
Remember, every wager is a transaction, and the goal is attaining the best price. I briefly outlined how using cost-per-point analysis can help identify value on the betting board, but that’s not all. I’ve also found tracking moneyline moves on these identified outliers can act as a leading indicator for final line shifts heading into the weekend. The anticipatory theory here is akin to reading the tape in trading markets during periods of flux. If you’re the first to identify value in a market presumed to be razor sharp, the general public’s actions will eventually lag your own-the definition of value creation.
You still need to do your own analysis in choosing which side to wager. This chart is not the who but the how. It will help you maximize profit on your wins while avoiding unforced valuation errors.
Cost Analysis Chart – NFL Week 1
What is a Hybrid Bet?
I should also include an explanation of something I’ve coined a “hybrid bet,†so there’s no confusion. When we like heavy underdogs and the chart says there’s value on the moneyline, I split my bet in order to increase profit potential. To make it easy, I’ll bet 75% of my pre-allotted unit size (0.75r) on the standard (-110) ATS and the remaining 25% (0.25r) on the ML. Part of my own personal process is never betting on an underdog I don’t think has a chance to win. I do not subscribe to betting on bad teams to keep it close. We know the NFL is wildly unpredictable and subject to seemingly infinite variance. If you mark a mispriced dog, why cap profits? In the case our underdog loses but still covers, the (0.75r) wagered represents a 43% profit on the original venture and a fine day at the office.
Let me preface the rest of this piece by saying that starting next Wednesday when we go live for Week 2, I’ll be able to get into significantly more detail. This specific type of work is ideally done in the middle of the week after the dust settles on opening lines. For the time being, I think it’s worth getting a grasp on the theory in time to get in front of next week’s lines.
All lines per DraftKings as of September 8.
Significant Overnight Line Moves Since the Open
CAR moved from (+2.5) to (+3.5) at ATL
Not surprising to see money on the Falcons after the way CAR looked on offense the entire preseason as the starting WR injury reports pile up.
JAX moved from (-3.5) to (-5) at IND
The circus in IND overshadowed optimism for Anthony Richardson. JAX looks primed to take another step forward in 2023.
TB moved from (+6.5) to (+5.5) at MIN
Sometimes, the market surprises me, which sums up how I feel any time money comes in on a Baker Mayfield-led team. If this keeps up, I may be betting against CLV and on the Vikings come Sunday.
SF moved from (-3) to (-2.5) at PIT
Steady drips of positive news from Pittsburgh camp with the game played in Steel Town got this one down to (-2) for a second, but the Bosa signing bounced it right back.
ARI moved from (+5.5) to (+7) at WAS
I saw the direction of this line movement coming a mile away, but given the QB situation in ARI, I still think it’s short.
GB moved from (+3) to (+1) at CHI
Green Bay was my outright favorite at the open, and the market is just catching up now. At only $10 per point, there’s still no sign of stopping.
PHI moved from (-3.5) to (-4) at NE
The public and the linemakers think more highly of Bill O’Brien and the NE offense than I do apparently. This line surprised me at the open, and though I nailed the direction, I thought the move would be significantly more violent than half a point.
NFL Week 1 Cost Analysis-Based Expected Line Moves
HOU should move to (+10) from (+9.5) at BAL
The (-470) BAL ML is doing a metric ton of lifting here for under 10 points. Incorporating the directionality of line movement since the open, there’s a good chance momentum plus bad injury news for the Texans’ O-line pushes us back to double digits. If you like BAL, time to bet that is now.
- LEAN - BAL (-9.5): I can’t envision this staying in the single digits for long with three of five Texan linemen on the IR.
ARI should move to (+7.5) from (+7) at WAS
I understand the criticality of the number seven and that the Commanders are inexperienced at quarterback, but I’m still surprised we haven’t shifted off the (-7) open. Washington’s got a heavy edge on defense, while the Cardinals have refused to name their starting QB (not that it will matter).
- LEAN - WAS (-7): Arizona has the lowest current floor of any NFL team and lacks a definitive edge anywhere in this contest. If this line were to move to (-6.5), you can bet it’s getting hammered right back to a TD. The perfect example of a game we’ll be ahead of next week.
NFL Week 1 Favorites with Value on the Moneyline versus ATS
- CIN (-130) at CLE
- SF (-130) at PIT
- CHI (-115) vs GB
- BUF (-135) at NYJ
The thinking again is very simple. NFL games are hard to win and harder to predict, and the coaches do not care about covering. Following that logic, it doesn’t make sense to pay a premium for something so variant, especially when considering year-over-year increases in two-point conversions. To me, no one’s ability to predict outcomes is fine-tuned enough to offset such a small shift in implied probability.
If you need any more convincing of how close these games will likely be, the answer’s in the line itself. Especially in the case of road favorites, it feels especially pretentious to pay a premium price for points.
NFL Week 1 Underdogs with Value ATS vs. On the Moneyline
- CLE (+2) vs CIN
- PIT (+2.5) vs SF
- GB (+1) at CHI
- NYJ (+2.5) vs BUF
I don’t want to use too broad a stroke and claim any underdog within three points of a pick-em is misplayed on the moneyline. That said, comparing what those points cost compared to others you’re paying for should be compelling enough to consider. I try and do my best not to try and predict the future but rather place myself in the strongest probabilistic scenario and allow the odds to play out.
Starting next Wednesday, we’ll be here every week using this custom cost-per-point analysis to bring you recorded and third-party tracked bets. Thanks so much for reading. Please follow me on X @JohnLaghezza, and feel free to offer any questions or comments.
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