NFL Week 1 Odds, Picks & Predictions (2024)
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NFL Week 1 Odds, Picks & Predictions
Steelers vs. Falcons
There are reports that the new Pittsburgh quarterback, Russell Wilson, is again dealing with a calf issue. The Steelers are currently unsure of Wilson's status and would start Justin Fields in his place if he could not go. It sounds more likely that Fields will get the start for Pittsburgh, but that's not confirmed. With that in mind, Field finished 2023 with 2,562 yards passing. However, he threw nine interceptions in 13 games played and was sacked 44 times. His running ability also took a hit last season after he averaged a career-low 5.3 yards per rush. On the other hand, the Falcons sured up their defense with Justin Simmons and Matthew Judon late in the offseason. Atlanta's defense looks much better than last year's unit, and the offense, led by Kirk Cousins, should also look improved. Grab Atlanta -3.5 (-105) at home.
Pick: Falcons -3.5
- Jason Radowitz
Cardinals vs. Bills
The Bills are still one of the better teams in the NFL despite losing names like Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. After all, just look at the box scores from previous games. When the Bills lost to the Chiefs in the AFC Divisional Playoffs, Dalton Kincaid led the team in receiving yards, and Khalil Shakir led the squad in receptions. The Bills will be fine offensively with new weapons like WR Keon Coleman. On the other hand, the secondary played at an elite level, and the pass rush was always effective last season. Once the Cardinals find themselves down, they'll have to throw the ball on the road in Buffalo consistently. New WR phenom Marvin Harrison Jr. has great potential and is in a good spot with Arizona. However, if no other receiver steps up and makes plays for Arizona, it'll be hard for him to carry the offense in Week 1. Give me the Bills at -6.5 (-110).
Pick: Bills -6.5
- Jason Radowitz
Titans vs. Bears
The Bears were the winners of the offseason. They added QB Caleb Williams with the first overall pick in the draft, traded for WR Keenan Allen, drafted WR Rome Odunze and signed RB DâAndre Swift in free agency. This should be a vastly improved offense to what we saw last year from Chicago. If the defense can perform like it did the second half of last year, allowing just 15.5 PPG over the last six weeks of the season. The Titans however, will look different on offense. Franchise legend RB Derrick Henry is off to Baltimore and the Titans will rely on QB Will Levis and a thin pass catching group. It could be a tough time scoring for an offense that ranked 27th in points scored last year. With a Tennessee defense that added CB LâJarius Sneed, they should be improved from the league average outfit they fielded last season. This will be the first game for a Chicago offense that will be formidable this season. Both of these teams could get off to a slow start, the perfect recipe for an under.
Pick: Under 45
- Ryan Rodeman
Patriots vs. Bengals
It's still unclear if Ja'Marr Chase will end his holdout and play for the Bengals in Week 1. That said, the Bengals shouldn't have any issues getting by the New England Patriots. Despite drafting Drake Maye, New England will roll with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback in Week 1. Brissett has had some starting jobs before and has much more experience. But that's also why he's been on five teams since 2016. He's a mediocre quarterback playing with a group of receivers that look like the worst group on paper in the NFL. New England's No. 1 receiver is K.J. Osborn or DeMario Douglas. That's not going to cut it. Grab the Bengals -8.5 (-110) in a blowout at home.
Pick: Bengals -8.5
- Jason Radowitz
Texans vs. Colts
Houston will try to improve to .500 all-time in Week 1 (10-11-1) when they travel to Indianapolis to take on the Colts. Indianapolis will try to end a 10-game winless streak in Week 1. The last time they won a season opener was in 2013 when they beat the Raiders 21-17. If history is any indication, the Colts may be in good shape. Since 2010, home divisional underdogs (Colts are +3) have gone 22-7 ATS; since 2018, they've gone 9-2 ATS. To win, the Colts need to get Jonathan Taylor on track early. The more they can run the ball, the less C.J. Stroud and the Texans offense are on the field; Stroud threw for 384 yards and two touchdowns last season. However, the outcome will likely be determined by a different quarterback. If Anthony Richardson can live up to the hype, the Colts could make this one competitive. But I'm not sold on Richardson. The Colts lead the all-time series vs. Houston 33-11-1.
Pick: Texans -3
- Travis Pulver
Jaguars vs. Dolphins
Under Mike McDaniels, the Dolphins have been unstoppable at home in the month of September. Miami is 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS, covering by over 20 PPG, including a 50 point win over the Broncos last year. Itâs tough to play in Miami in September, but if there is any team that could be used to the conditions, itâs their rivals upstate in Jacksonville. After an upstart season in 2022, Jacksonville looked poised to repeat as the AFC South Champions, but an injury to QB Trevor Lawrence allowed the season to get off the rails. Following an 8-3 start, the Jaguars went 1-5 to finish the year and miss out on the playoffs. Lawrence is back and healthy with WRs Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis at his disposal. This offense should be closer to the top 10 outfit we saw in 2022. Weâll see the fruits of that early in this matchup with a Miami defense that lost some big names in Christian Wilkins, Andrew Van Ginkel and Brandon Jones. The Jacksonville pass rush should also be able to get to the quarterback all day against this offensive line. I like the Jaguars to cover and lean an outright win.
Pick: Jaguars +3.5, Lean Jaguars ML (+150)
- Ryan Rodeman
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Panthers vs. Saints
The Panthers hit the road for the Crescent City with renewed optimism after a dismal two-win season in 2024. To make matters worse, they would have had the No. 1 overall pick, but that went to the Chicago Bears as part of the QB Bryce Young trade. After Young had a tough rookie campaign, all indications are that he has made strides in training camp and the preseason. Weâll see. The Carolina offense should be a little more fun after adding WR Diontae Johnson in the offseason, as well as first-round pick WR Xavier Legette. The Saints are still the team to beat when these teams match up. New Orleans swept the season series in 2023, and it has won four of the past five at home against Carolina, sans for a meaningless Week 18 game in Jan. 2023. Back New Orleans laying the points until Carolina proves it is ready to take that next step towards competitiveness.
Pick: Saints -3.5
- Daniel Dobish
Vikings vs. Giants
The expectations weren't high for Minnesota coming into the season. They were ready to get a glimpse into the future with J.J. McCarthy, but a knee injury will sideline him for the season. Sam Darnold will be the starter and has a high caliber of talent, including Justin Jefferson, so hopefully, he manage this offense. Don't expect the high return you're used to from Jefferson because they may rely on the run with newly acquired Aaron Jones. This is a make-or-break year for Daniel Jones. Although he signed a large contract last offseason, there's an option to cut him after this year. They gave him new pieces, including first-round pick wide receiver Malik Nabers and running back Devin Singletary, so hopefully, he can stay healthy and see if he can make all of this work and have the Giants be a contender. The strength of both teams is their pass rush, and they will attack the offensive line and get in each quarterback's face all day. It looks like this is a low-scoring game.
Pick: Under 41.5
- John Supowitz
Raiders vs. Chargers
The Raiders and Chargers renew their heated AFC West rivalry, and there are all kinds of storylines. Antonio Pierce begins his first full season as the head coach after taking over as interim midway through last season. QB Gardner Minshew II has supplanted QB Aidan OâConnell, so the team should be a little more functional on offense, even with RB Josh Jacobs having departed. On the Chargers side, look for a more run-based attack with new head coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman. The offense has a much different look, as QB Justin Herbert is still there but dealing with plantar fasciitis. So, it might behoove the Bolts to run the ball more. Running means the clock keeps moving, which is good news for Under bettors. WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are also both gone, so it could take time for Los Angeles to jell on offense. Look for a slow go initially for both sides before they each find their way in the 2nd half.
Pick: Under 39.5
- Daniel Dobish
Broncos vs. Seahawks
It's a new era in Denver, as the Russell Wilson experiment did not work out. Sean Payton went out and got the quarterback he wanted and even went as far as to trade up for Oregon standout Bo Nix. Experts were surprised by the move, but Payton sees potential and believes he can lead this team. Their defense took a huge dip last year, as they were 23rd in points allowed, but they added many pieces on that side. There were also some changes for the Seahawks as long-time coach Pete Carroll is out. They brought in Mike Macdonald, who has a stellar defensive pedigree, as he ran that side of the ball for the Ravens and previous Michigan. He should help improve this defense, but the offense will also have a jolt with offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, who was a part of that University of Washington offense that had one of the best passing attacks in college football. Poor Nix, his NFL debut, and he has to face the 12th man. Macdonald gets the win in his debut.
Pick: Seahawks -6
- John Supowitz
Cowboys vs. Browns
The Cowboys hit the road for one of the more anticipated games of the opening weekend. The big story in training camp and the offseason was the contract status for WR CeeDee Lamb. There was a long impasse, but the two sides hammered out a lucrative agreement for the pass catcher, which, in turn, makes his QB Dak Prescott happy, too. RB Ezekiel Elliott is back as the starting tailback in Big D, and some things old are new again. For the Browns, RB Nick Chubb has been slow to recover from an ACL suffered in Week 2 last season and begins the season on the PUP list. As such, itâs RB Jerome Ford carrying the mail against a good Dallas run defense. That will put a lot of pressure on the passing game and QB Deshaun Watson. The latter has struggled with consistency in his two seasons in Cleveland, but he has plenty of options, including WR Amari Cooper, facing Dallas for the first time since it traded him to Cleveland after not giving him a Lamb-like contract a couple of years ago. It will be interesting, but Dallas is healthier. Expect the Cowboys to win in a lower-scoring game, and watch for the winds to affect this game, gusting 14-16 MPH at times.
Pick: Cowboys ML (+118)
- Daniel Dobish
Commanders vs. Buccaneers
All eyes will be on Washington QB Jayden Daniels. The second overall pick in Aprilâs draft will start the season opener for the new-look Commanders, who are coming off a 4-13 season. New head coach Dan Quinn and new OC Kliff Kingsbury will look to get creative with Daniels and open up an offense that was far more conservative under Ron Rivera. Despite a .500 record (17-17) in his first two seasons as Bucs head coach, Todd Bowles has led Tampa Bay to a pair of NFC South Division championships. Bowlesâ squad returns all of their primary offensive weapons, including QB Baker Mayfield who threw for over 4,000 yards and 28 TDs a year ago. The Bucs are 2-0 in season openers under Bowles, both on the road. But this game boils down to Daniels. Rookie QBs are 16-35-1 in opening games since the merger and 0-7-1 in the past five years. Look for Bowles, a creative defensive mind, and first-year defensive coordinator Joe Whitt to confuse Daniels with different looks and force him into some bad decisions. Tampa Bay should get off to a good start once again this season as they look to make it three division titles in a row under Bowles.
Pick: Buccaneers -3.5
- Tom Stad