NFL Week 1 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Colts vs. Texans (2022)
Here is my preview and best bet for the 2022 NFL Week 1 game between the Colts and Texans.
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Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
- Kickoff: Sunday, Sep. 11, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: NRG Stadium
- TV: CBS
Colts at Texans: Consensus Lines
Lines from our BettingPros odds page and as of Sep. 3.
- Spread: Colts -8
- Over/Under: 45.5
- Moneyline: Colts -385, Texans +295
Colts at Texans: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Sep. 3.
- Spread: Texans - 45% bets, 98% money
- Over/Under: Under - 17% bets, 27% money
- Moneyline: Texans - 7% bets, 18% money
Colts at Texans: Key Injuries
Indianapolis Colts Injuries
- LB Shaquille Leonard (back) – questionable
- CB Isaiah Rodgers (concussion) – questionable
- P Rigoberto Sanchez (Achilles, IR)
Houston Texans Injuries
- WR John Metchie (leukemia, PUP)
- TE Pharaoh Brown (hamstring) – questionable
- LB Christian Harris (undisclosed, IR)
- CB Tavierre Thomas (quad, IR)
Injury Analysis
Leonard was activated from the PUP just last week after an extended absence.
He’s far from guaranteed to play in Week 1, and his absence would be felt in the middle of the Colts defense. Rodgers was a rotational corner last year. As for Sanchez, he’s a punter.
A second-round rookie, Metchie would’ve been a Week 1 starter if not for his health. The Texans seem optimistic that he’ll be able to return to action in 2023.
Brown is an inline blocking specialist, and Harris and Thomas are rotational backups who are out for the year.
Colts at Texans: Situational Spots
Indianapolis Colts Situation
The Colts with new QB Matt Ryan open the season with winnable but divisional road games in Weeks 1-2. In Week 3, they play their home opener against the Chiefs, who have three extra days of rest. And then they have three more divisional games sandwiched around a road game at Broncos on short rest (elevation, Thursday Night Football).
That's five - FIVE! - divisional games in the first seven weeks of the season ... and then they don't have another divisional matchup until Week 18 vs. Texans. In this first-half stretch, the Colts play the top-seeded Titans twice in the same month, with the rematch on the road and the Titans coming off the bye.
More than most teams do, the Colts need to win in Week 1.
Houston Texans Situation
The Texans are slate-worst +8 underdogs in Week 1 - and then after that they play 3-of-4 away (with a home game against the Chargers). Maybe the Texans can upset the Colts and then steal road wins in Weeks 3 & 5 against the uninspiring Bears and Jaguars.
Or maybe they enter the Week 6 bye with an 0-5 record and in prime position to earn the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NFL draft.
Big picture: Either outcome is probably a net positive for the franchise.
Colts at Texans: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Indianapolis Colts Trends
- HC Frank Reich: 21-12-2 ATS (22.4% ROI) on road (including postseason)
- HC Frank Reich: 0-3-1 ATS (77.0% ROI for faders) in Week 1
- QB Matt Ryan: 5-9 ATS (26.7% ROI for faders) in Week 1
Houston Texans Trends
- HC Lovie Smith: 41-51-1 ATS (9.2% ROI for faders) at home in NFL (including postseason)
- HC Lovie Smith: 13-17 ATS (10.3% ROI for faders) at home in CFB
- QB Davis Mills: 3-1 ATS (44.2% ROI) in last month of 2021 rookie season
- Divisional Underdogs: 58-36-2 ATS (20.3% ROI) in Week 1
- Non-Postseason Divisional Underdogs: 53-23-2 ATS (35.5% ROI) in Week 1
- Indoor Divisional Overs: 17-7 (39.1% ROI) in Week 1
Colts at Texans: Key Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don't Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Indianapolis Colts Offense vs. Houston Texans Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.06 | 13 | 0.077 | 26 | 13 |
| Total SR | 44.6% | 17 | 48.1% | 31 | 14 |
| Total DVOA | 4.4% | 13 | 3.6% | 23 | 10 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.055 | 17 | 0.161 | 25 | 8 |
| Dropback SR | 45.7% | 18 | 52.5% | 32 | 14 |
| Pass DVOA | 6.2% | 20 | 11.1% | 22 | 2 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.2% | 13 | 6.0% | 23 | 10 |
| Rush EPA | 0.065 | 1 | -0.029 | 23 | 22 |
| Rush SR | 43.0% | 8 | 42.7% | 26 | 18 |
| Rush DVOA | 10.4% | 2 | -4.9% | 22 | 20 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.60 | 7 | 4.60 | 25 | 18 |
| Yards per Play | 5.6 | 15 | 5.9 | 28 | 13 |
| Points per Game | 26.5 | 9 | 26.6 | 27 | 18 |
| Rd vs. Hm DVOA | 10.4% | 9 | 7.6% | 29 | 20 |
Indianapolis Colts Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don't Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2021 data: Min. 200 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR. 2019-21 data: Min. 600 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 600 pass attempts for AY/A.
2021: Matt Ryan
- EPA + CPOE: 0.071 (No. 21)
- Air Yards per Attempt: 7.2 (No. 32)
- AY/A: 6.8 (No. 19)
- QBR: 46.1 (No. 21)
- ATS Value vs. Average: -0.42 (No. 28)
2019-21: Matt Ryan
- EPA + CPOE: 0.089 (No. 23)
- Air Yards per Attempt: 8.1 (No. 19)
- AY/A: 7.1 (No. 22)
Career: Matt Ryan
- AY/A: 7.4
- QB Elo per Game: 41.2
Houston Texans Offense vs. Indianapolis Colts Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.134 | 31 | 0 | 13 | -18 |
| Total SR | 37.6% | 32 | 45.4% | 20 | -12 |
| Total DVOA | -22.0% | 30 | -4.9% | 8 | -22 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.086 | 30 | 0.063 | 18 | -12 |
| Dropback SR | 43.0% | 28 | 49.6% | 26 | -2 |
| Pass DVOA | -8.6% | 29 | 5.9% | 17 | -12 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 7.6% | 22 | 5.6% | 25 | 3 |
| Rush EPA | -0.213 | 32 | -0.112 | 8 | -24 |
| Rush SR | 29.0% | 32 | 38.1% | 7 | -25 |
| Rush DVOA | -33.2% | 32 | -21.6% | 3 | -29 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 3.33 | 32 | 4.21 | 15 | -17 |
| Yards per Play | 4.7 | 30 | 5.6 | 22 | -8 |
| Points per Game | 16.5 | 30 | 21.5 | 9 | -21 |
| Hm vs. Rd DVOA | -13.4% | 27 | -4.1% | 8 | -19 |
Houston Texans Quarterback Statistics
2021: Davis Mills
- EPA + CPOE: 0.025 (No. 30)
- Air Yards per Attempt: 7.3 (No. 30)
- AY/A: 6.4 (No. 25)
- QBR: 35.5 (No. 26)
- ATS Value vs. Average: -1.11 (No. 36)
Key Matchup: Davis Mills vs. Colts Secondary
This Week 1 Colts secondary will not look like last year’s unit.
CB Kenny Moore will continue to man the slot, but after him the four corners who played the most snaps — starters Xavier Rhodes (free agency) and Rock-Ya Sin (traded), No. 4 CB Isaiah Rodgers (concussion, questionable) and backup T.J. Carrie (free agency) — are all either gone or uncertain for Week 1.
At safety, the Colts had five players with 100 snaps last year. Four of them — Andrew Sendejo (free agency), Khari Willis (retired), George Odum (free agency) and Jahleel Addae (free agency) — are now gone. Only starter Julian Blackmon remains.
And they have lost DC Matt Eberflus (now the Bears head coach) and replaced him with Gus Bradley, a master of mediocrity who is on his third coordinator job in as many years. Over the past three seasons, Bradley’s “break, don’t bend†defenses have ranked No. 10 in yards … but No. 21 in scoring.
No. 1 CB Stephon Gilmore was a good offseason addition, but he turns 32 years old in September and could slow down this season. Starting perimeter cornerback Brandon Facyson is a Bradley favorite who knows the system from their time together with the Chargers and Raiders over the past four seasons — but he’s a total liability in coverage with a 17.9% target rate and 1.33 yards per coverage snaps for his career (including playoffs, per PFF). And starting safety Nick Cross is a rookie.
Bradley doesn’t seem like the kind of coordinator who can quickly pull together a secondary with that much turnover and vulnerability.
As for Mills, he finished his 2021 rookie season on a five-game hot streak after returning to the starting lineup in Week 14 (1,258-9-2 passing, 7.9 AY/A, 0.080 EPA + CPOE), and he could be better this year, given that quarterbacks typically progress in their second seasons and OC Pep Hamilton was his position coach and passing game coordinator last year.
With an upside pass-catching trio of WRs Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins and TE Brevin Jordan, the feisty Mills could keep this game close.
Bet: Texans +8.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Personal Projection: Texans +5.5
Limit: Texans +7
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