NFL Week 1 Odds, Picks & Predictions for Every Game (2022)
Here are our top odds, picks, and predictions for the full slate of NFL Week 1 games.
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NFL Week 1 Odds, Picks & Predictions
Bills vs. Rams
Buffalo is coming into the season as Super Bowl favorites and has the MVP favorite in Josh Allen. Von Miller will also be making his debut against his former team in the same place he won a championship with them. Jordan Poyer has returned to practice and should be able to play, but Tre'Davious White will not play. That should be a problem against one of the league's best passing offenses which averaged 11.4 yards per completion last season.
The Rams will look to throw the ball and take advantage of their superior matchups outside. Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson should be able to get open. The Rams also add Bobby Wagner to their already stellar defense, which allowed four rushing yards per attempt. This will be a close matchup but expect the Rams' defense to make a game-changing play for their home crowd.
Picks: Rams +2.5 | Lean o52.5
Saints vs. Falcons
In their first game absent former HC Sean Payton, the New Orleans Saints visit the Atlanta Falcons in an NFC South battle. Even in the midst of a regime change, many are bullish on the Saints outlook in 2022. The Saints will return both QB Jameis Winston and All-Pro WR Michael Thomas from injury, and much of their elite defense remains in-tact.
After shipping franchise icon Matt Ryan to Indianapolis this past March, the Falcons also represent a team in the midst of a transition. Atlanta, however, seems intent on building for the future rather than competing this season.
Both the expectations, and the talent disparity between these NFC South rivals are drastically different. Expect the Saints to build upon last season's early success with Jameis Winston under center in week one.
Picks: Lean Saints -5.5 | o42.5
49ers vs. Bears
This is a nightmare matchup for a Bears offensive line that ranked dead last in allowed sack rate in 2021. Nick Bosa and the rest of the 49ers pass rush that finished top 5 in sack rate should be living in the Chicago backfield all day. Justin Fields is capable of using his feet to make plays when the pocket breaks down, but the Bears got weaker at the pass-catching positions to bail him out.
On the other side of the ball, there's hope second-year QB Trey Lance can add explosiveness to the offense. It's often not wise to take a young quarterback on the road, with limited experience, laying a touchdown, but this matchup is tailor-made for the 49ers.
Picks: Lean 49ers -7 | Lean u41
Steelers vs. Bengals
The Steelers named Mitch Trubisky the starter after he beat out rookie Kenny Pickett. He may find holes in the Bengals’ secondary, which gave up 4,222 yards last season. However, there are many concerns with the offensive line.
Joe Mixon should have his way like he did last year. He averaged 5.0 and 5.89 yards per attempt in his two games against Pittsburgh. The Steelers gave up a league-worst five yards per attempt last season and did not do much to fix the issue. Expect the Bengals to establish the run early to negate the pass rush of T.J. Watt, who led the league with 22.5 sacks.
The Steelers scored 10 points in each loss to the Bengals last season and will likely score a similar amount this week. The improved offensive line of the Bengals should help them coast to an easy victory.
Picks: Bengals -6.5 | Lean u44.5
Eagles vs. Lions
The Philadelphia Eagles and Detroit Lions will face-off in an intriguing Week 1 matchup at Ford Field. These two teams met a season ago, a game in which Philly easily beat Detroit 44-6. While one should not expect such an overwhelming victory this time around, expect Philly to once again handle their business in Detroit.
Perhaps no other team has improved as much as the Eagles heading into the 2022 season. And, pending competency from third-year QB Jalen Hurts, this team appears poised to contend in a vulnerable NFC. And while the Lions have become darlings to many via their glowing appearance on HBO's Hard Knocks, they are still a team very much in the midst of a multi-year rebuild.
Picks: Eagles -3.5 | Lean: u49
Patriots vs. Dolphins
The Patriots let J.C. Jackson walk and selected a couple of cornerbacks in the draft, but the lack of depth at the position is still a concern. They will be in for a tall test against Tyreek Hill. He is coming off back-to-back 1,200-yard seasons and had a career-high 111 receptions last season. His success will rely on Tua Tagovailoa, who is entering a make-or-break season.
Both teams changed their coaching staff and will have new-look offenses. Mike McDaniel will be making his coaching debut Sunday for Miami. Opposite him, Bill Belichick will be entering the season without Josh McDaniels for the first time since 2011. The offense is still growing, but they should look to establish the run against a Dolphins defense that allowed 109.8 rushing yards per game last season. Belichick will adjust his game plan on the fly and keep this one close.
Picks: Lean Patriots +3.5 | u44.5
Ravens vs. Jets
The Ravens were decimated by injuries in 2021, but they come into 2022 healthy and ready to make a statement. They've been given a gift by schedule makers with a matchup on the road against the Jets who ranked last in defensive DVOA last year. Though there is some hope for the future after May's draft, it won't take shape in this matchup with a dynamic Ravens offense.
On the other side, the Jets will start either Zach Wilson or Joe Flacco at quarterback. To say Wilson struggled as a rookie last year is an understatement, and if he plays he likely won't be 100%. If it's Flacco, you're getting a guy past his prime trying to do too much against his former team. Either way, a matchup with a hungry Ravens defense is not what the doctor ordered. The Ravens should dominate all facets of this game.
Picks: Ravens -7 | u44.5
Jaguars vs. Commanders
After a nightmare 2021 campaign, the Jaguars are looking for a fresh start with Doug Pederson as head coach. Pederson has a reputation of being a quarterback whisperer from helping Alex Smith revive his career in Kansas City and allowing Nick Foles to turn into a Super Bowl winner. Trevor Lawrence, under Pederson’s tutelage, has all the talent in the world to take his game to the next level, and the Washington pass defense that disappointed in 2021 is a matchup he can exploit. This Jaguars offense will surprise a lot of people, starting in Week 1.
Meanwhile, the Commanders, with Carson Wentz at quarterback, won't be able to keep pace even against a weak defense. Last year in Indianapolis, Wentz struggled in both matchups with the Jaguars, and there's no reason to think that changes enough on Sunday to put them over the top.
Bets: Jaguars +3 | o43.5
Browns vs. Panthers
The Carolina Panthers’ acquisition of former Cleveland Browns starting QB Baker Mayfield provides this contest with a degree of intrigue it would otherwise be lacking. Mayfield's recent comments only add intrigue to the matchup, and this contest has quickly become one of the most compelling of the Week 1 slate.
Cleveland should have success rushing against the Panthers' defensive front, but expect backup QB Jacoby Brissett to struggle to keep pace with a revamped Carolina offense helmed by a vengeful Baker Mayfield. The Browns have gone winless in season openers since 2004, and it is unlikely that they will buck that trend in 2022.
Picks: Panthers -2. Lean u42
Colts vs. Texans
Davis Mills will start at quarterback for the Texans this season and will not have much around him again. Dameon Pierce, who the team drafted in the sixth round out of Florida, will start at running back and may add a spark to the offense.
Matt Ryan will be making his Colts debut, and he may not have to do much. The Texans gave up the second most yards and touchdowns last season against the run. The Colts have an elite offensive line and an elite running back in Jonathan Taylor. He feasted on the Texans' defense last year, posting 145 yards and two TDs in their first matchup. He followed that up with 143 yards and two more TDs in their next meeting. The Colts won those games 31-3 and 31-0. This year should not look that much different with Ryan under center.
Picks: Lean Colts -7.5 | u46
Giants vs. Titans
In 2021 the Titans were perhaps one of the largest overachievers in the league. They exceeded their Pythagorean win total by more than any team. This typically points to regression. With the departure of leading receiver AJ Brown, a potential quarterback controversy brewing, and Derrick Henry coming off a serious injury, it's almost a certainty.
Brian Daboll takes over in New York after helping transform the Bills’ offense and develop Josh Allen. He hopes to have similar success with Daniel Jones. Jones has flashed brilliance in his short career, but injuries in the offense have stalled his development. New York comes into 2022 healthier than they've been in a while and should finally start to find improvement. The Giants can exploit the Titans’ defense while their own defense is capable of containing a Titans’ offense with many question marks.
Picks: Lean Giants +5.5 | Lean u43.5
Vikings vs. Packers
The Green Bay Packers visit the Minnesota Vikings in an exciting Week 1 matchup with the potential to alter the perceived power structure in the NFC. There has been much offseason chatter regarding what to expect from a Packers offense devoid of star WR Davante Adams, however, it may be the Vikings' new-look offense that will determine this matchup.
Expect first-year Head Coach Kevin O'Connell, formerly of the Los Angeles Rams, to bring with him a drastic change to the Vikings' offensive attack, and expect a talented Packers defense to be on its heels early in this contest. Additionally, the Vikings boast one of the greater Home-Field Advantages in the sport, and a strong showing in Week 1 will be critical to their season outlook.
Picks: Vikings +2.5 | Lean o48
Chiefs vs. Cardinals
Two of the League's best offenses meet in the desert as the Kansas City Chiefs travel to face the Arizona Cardinals. The Cards were excellent in 2021, and have tended to start strong since HC Kliff Kingsbury’s arrival in 2020. However, Arizona has undergone a tumultuous offseason highlighted by off-field distractions, and the Chiefs are far from the ideal opponent to begin the season.
The Cardinals were substantially better as the road team in 2021, and they will surely miss WR DeAndre Hopkins' production in attempting to keep pace with the KC offense. Even still, this line has ballooned to Chiefs -6 since opening as KC -3 early in the offseason, and it is hard to push strongly for a KC bet at this point, knowing that much of the value has been priced out.
Picks: Lean Chiefs -5.5, Lean u54
Raiders vs. Chargers
We visit the AFC West and SoFi Stadium for an exciting matchup between the Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers. In 2021, the Raiders thwarted the Chargers' playoff hopes in one of the most bizarre games of the year, and LA will surely have revenge on its mind entering this contest. The Chargers, however, have higher expectations than just a Week 1 victory, as offseason acquisitions have signaled this team is all-in on competing for a Super Bowl this year.
The Raiders have made notable personnel moves of their own and are expected to trot out arguably the best receiving trio in football highlighted by newly acquired WR Davante Adams. However, this offensive firepower may not be enough for Vegas in Week 1, and they may struggle to keep pace with a Chargers offense that should be capable of scoring at will.
Picks: Chargers -3 | o52
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys
Tom Brady was the talk of the offseason, with a brief retirement and atypical absence, but it is the question marks on the offensive line as well as the pass-catching group that is worrisome. Losses due to injury and retirement, as well as questions about how focused Brady is after his tumultuous summer, point to Tampa taking a step back offensively in 2022.
Dallas comes into this matchup with questions of their own. There is no doubt Dak Prescott is the capable leader of the offense, but the losses of Amari Cooper and Tyron Smith will be tough to overcome. The Cowboys posted a top two DVOA defense in 2021, but turnover regression is likely to come. Overall, Dallas has the weapons offensively to outpace Tampa in what could end up being a matchup between teams that are coming into the season a bit overrated.
Picks: Cowboys +2.5 | u51
Broncos vs. Seahawks
Russell Wilson will feel right at home in his first game with the Broncos. What better place to start his tenure with Denver than in Seattle, where he spent 10 years? The new head coach, Nathaniel Hackett, will provide a more pass-happy offense for Wilson to operate. He immediately makes Denver a contender for the Super Bowl, irrespective of their extremely tough division.
Seattle, of course, lost Wilson and also long-time linebacker Bobby Wagner. They have decided to rebuild and focus on drafting a quarterback from the 2023 class. For now, Geno Smith will be starting at quarterback and has another chance to prove he deserves to be a starter. He has a lifetime 58.8% completion rate and a 34-37 touchdown to interception ratio. He will have trouble scoring enough points to keep up against Denver's secondary.
Picks: Broncos -6.5 | Lean u44.5
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