NFL Week 1 Odds, Picks & Predictions First Touchdown Scorer: Colts vs. Texans (2022)
The 2022 NFL season is finally upon us! The prop market continues to explode in popularity when betting on pro football, which is most likely a direct result of lifelong fantasy football players finally entering the betting landscape as legalization spreads.
Every week this season, I will write about my two favorite bets for Sunday’s slate in one of the most entertaining exotic prop markets: first touchdown scorer. It is an opportunity to get long odds on some of the league’s best players to score a TD, and they just have to be the first one.
Below, I will walk through my favorite first touchdown scorer bets for Week 1. These plays are a half-unit each, or 0.5% of your betting bankroll.
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(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jonathan Taylor (+320)
This is perhaps the chalkiest and squarest play in this market, but at over a 3/1 return, it is still too strong to pass up. The Indianapolis Colts travel to Houston to take on the Texans as eight-and-a-half-point favorites.
Jonathan Taylor’s excellence needs no introduction. He is certainly a heavy favorite to find the endzone at least once against the lowly Texans, evidenced by his -240 line for any TD scorer. So, can he get there first?
Indianapolis’ propensity to run the ball should be amplified against a Houston unit expected to be awful this season. According to PFF, the Texans have the third-worst defensive line and second-worst linebacking unit in football.
Last season, Taylor and the Colts dominated Houston, going 2-0 with a combined score of 62-3. Through those two games, Taylor averaged 144 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, and 6.26 yards per attempt.
Over his last three games against the Texans, Taylor has been the first TD scorer twice. Indianapolis will look to establish the run early, which means plenty of touches for Taylor on their first drive. Even if Houston gets the ball first, it is far more likely that they do not score on their first drive. Currently, the race to 10 points market has the Colts listed as a heavy -260 favorite.
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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.