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NFL Week 1 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Giants vs. Titans (2022)

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Here is my preview and best bet for the 2022 NFL Week 1 game between the Giants and the Titans.

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New York Giants at Tennessee Titans

  • Kickoff: Sunday, Sep. 11, 2022, 4:25 pm ET
  • Location: Nissan Stadium
  • TV: FOX

Giants at Titans: Consensus Lines

Lines from our BettingPros odds page and as of Sep. 3.

  • Spread: Titans -5.5
  • Over/Under: 43.5
  • Moneyline: Titans -250, Giants +200

Giants at Titans: Betting Percentages

Data from Action Network and as of Sep. 3.

  • Spread: Giants - 49% bets, 92% money
  • Over/Under: Over - 61% bets, money data unavailable
  • Moneyline: Titans - 59% bets, 71% money

Giants at Titans: Key Injuries

New York Giants Injuries

  • LG Shane Lemieux (toe, IR)
  • C/G Nick Gates (knee, PUP)
  • G Marcus McKethan (knee, IR)
  • OT Matt Peart (knee, PUP)
  • WR Collin Johnson (Achilles, IR)
  • WR Sterling Shepard (Achilles) – highly questionable
  • TE Daniel Bellinger (concussion) – questionable
  • QB Tyrod Taylor (back) – questionable
  • EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux (knee) – questionable
  • S Dane Belton (shoulder) – questionable

Houston Texans Injuries

  • EDGE Harold Landry (knee, IR)
  • LB Monty Rice (undisclosed, PUP)

Injury Analysis

The Giants offensive depth is decimated. The line in particular looks rough. The interior has been hollowed out due to the absence of Lemieux (starter), Gates (top C/G backup) and McKethan (rookie third-stringer). On the perimeter, the team is vulnerable without Peart (top swing tackle).

At receiver, Shepard seems unlikely to play in Week 1 because of his season-ending injury last year, and Johnson (a top backup) is out for the year. Bellinger — a Day 3 rookie-turned-starter who filled in this preseason for since-released veteran Ricky Seals-Jones — is uncertain to play because of a head injury.

And Taylor, one of the league’s best backup quarterbacks, is also questionable.

On the defensive side of the ball, Thibodeaux (No. 1 pass rusher) and Belton (No. 3 safety) are both questionable.

The Titans will miss Landry (16 sacks in 18 games last year) and maybe even Rice (No. 3 linebacker).

Giants at Titans: Situational Spots

New York Giants Situation

The Giants have the easiest schedule of any team (based on the market win totals of all their opponents), so they can afford to lose this game, which is one of the toughest they have. After Week 1, the Giants play 4-of-5 at home, and the fifth game is on a neutral field. Then they play the Jaguars and Seahawks (albeit both on the road) before the Week 9 bye.

After that, the Giants kick off the second half of the year with another 4-of-5 stretch at home, which includes games against the Texans, Lions and Commanders. It’s not inconceivable that the Giants could have an 8-5 record entering the final month … even if they lose in Week 1.

Tennessee Titans

As the No. 1 seed in the AFC last year, the Titans have a tough schedule this year — and they have nine games on the road. It helps that play the Jaguars and Texans twice, and most of the NFC East is manageable.

But they also play the Bills, Chiefs, Chargers, Packers, Bengals, Broncos, Cowboys and Colts (twice), all of whom have win totals of 10 at various sportsbooks.

If the Titans can’t get a win at home against the Giants, this is highly unlikely to be an enjoyable season for their fans.

Giants at Titans: Notable Trends

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).

New York Giants Trends

  • Non-Postseason Teams: 73-46-4 ATS (19.1% ROI) as Week 1 road underdogs
  • QB Daniel Jones: 17-13 ATS (9.2% ROI) as underdog
  • QB Daniel Jones: 12-6 ATS (29.2% ROI) on road
  • QB Daniel Jones: 11-4 ATS (42.1% ROI) as road underdog
  • QB Daniel Jones: 22-14 (17.0% ROI) to the under

Tennessee Titans Trends

  • HC Mike Vrabel: 15-21-1 ATS (12.2% ROI for faders) as favorite (including postseason)
  • HC Mike Vrabel: 1-3 ATS (47.8% ROI for faders) in Week 1 (including postseason)

Giants at Titans: Key Statistics

Advanced data from RBs Don't Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

New York Giants Offense vs. Tennessee Titans Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play -0.141 32 -0.018 10 -22
Total SR 40.2% 30 42.6% 8 -22
Total DVOA -28.1% 32 -2.3% 12 -20
Dropback EPA -0.146 31 0.011 9 -22
Dropback SR 41.1% 31 44.0% 5 -26
Pass DVOA -22.7% 31 1.8% 11 -20
Adj. Sack Rate 6.4% 14 7.2% 10 -4
Rush EPA -0.133 27 -0.082 13 -14
Rush SR 38.6% 22 39.5% 13 -9
Rush DVOA -24.6% 30 -9.2% 14 -16
Adj. Line Yards 3.74 31 4.06 10 -21
Yards per Play 4.7 30 5.4 15 -15
Points per Game 15.2 31 20.8 5 -26
Rd vs. Hm DVOA -30.1% 31 -8.1% 7 -24

New York Giants Quarterback Statistics

Data from RBs Don't Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2021 data: Min. 200 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR. 2019-21 data: Min. 600 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 600 pass attempts for AY/A.

2021: Daniel Jones

  • EPA + CPOE: 0.048 (No. 25)
  • Air Yards per Attempt: 7.1 (No. 34)
  • AY/A: 6.4 (No. 26)
  • QBR: 41.5 (No. 22)
  • ATS Value vs. Average: -0.73 (No. 33)

2019-21: Daniel Jones

  • EPA + CPOE: 0.040 (No. 35)
  • Air Yards per Attempt: 7.6 (No. 30)
  • AY/A: 6.3 (No. 29)

Career: Daniel Jones

  • AY/A: 6.3
  • QB Elo per Game: -34.0

Tennessee Titans Offense vs. New York Giants Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play 0.025 15 0.028 21 6
Total SR 44.7% 15 46.4% 24 9
Total DVOA -4.2% 20 2.8% 18 -2
Dropback EPA 0.092 14 0.048 16 2
Dropback SR 50.6% 6 47.7% 22 16
Pass DVOA 5.8% 21 2.9% 14 -7
Adj. Sack Rate 8.4% 26 6.2% 21 -5
Rush EPA -0.054 13 -0.001 32 19
Rush SR 37.8% 24 44.4% 29 5
Rush DVOA -6.5% 17 2.7% 32 15
Adj. Line Yards 4.31 16 4.78 31 15
Yards per Play 5.1 21 5.3 11 -10
Points per Game 24.6 15 24.5 23 8
Hm vs. Rd DVOA -3.7% 20 8.3% 22 2

Tennessee Titans Quarterback Statistics

2021: Ryan Tannehill

  • EPA + CPOE: 0.113 (No. 13)
  • Air Yards per Attempt: 7.4 (No. 28)
  • AY/A: 6.6 (No. 20)
  • QBR: 55.9 (No. 8)
  • ATS Value vs. Average: 0.19 (No. 20)

2019-21: Ryan Tannehill

  • EPA + CPOE: 0.157 (No. 3)
  • Air Yards per Attempt: 8.2 (No. 16)
  • AY/A: 8.2 (No. 9)

Career: Ryan Tannehill

  • AY/A: 7.2
  • QB Elo per Game: -3.9

Key Matchup: Giants Secondary vs. Titans Pass Catchers

Last year in Week 1, WRs A.J. Brown (8), Julio Jones (6) and Chester Rogers (6) and TE Anthony Firkser (4) led the Titans in targets. They’re all gone.

They’ve been replaced by Robert Woods (coming off an ACL tear), Treylon Burks (failed to distinguish himself in the preseason), Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (literally more “name” than “game”) and Austin Hooper (a professional underwhelmer). Ugly.

In our FantasyPros unit power rankings, the Titans pass catchers are deservedly dead last.

Rank WRs & TEs Opp Secondary Secondary Rank Edge
32 TEN NYG 28 -4

Is the Giants secondary good? No. It’s bad. This offseason they lost starters CB James Bradberry and S/CBs Logan Ryan and Jabrill Peppers.

But all five projected starters this year were on the team in 2021 and got meaningful playing time, so they at least have some continuity within the unit.

And No. 1 CB Adoree’ Jackson is an underappreciated player. Not only has he exhibited the ability to shadow receivers throughout his career, but unlike most perimeter corners Jackson also can line up in the slot, which will give new DC Don Martindale more flexibility with coverages.

Never has Jackson had a coverage grade lower than 65.0, and last year he outright dominated with 0.61 yards per coverage snap and 4.98 yards per target (per PFF). His career numbers put him in some elite company.

  • Adoree’ Jackson: 14.6% target rate | 1.00 yards per snap | 6.83 yards per target
  • Jalen Ramsey: 14.1% target rate | 1.01 yards per snap | 7.14 yards per target
  • Jaire Alexander: 14.4% target rate | 1.03 yards per snap | 7.18 yards per target

If Jackson can man up either Woods or Burks on the perimeter, and if the Giants can shut down the other receiver with safety help, are Westbrook-Ikhine and Hooper going to make the Giants pay? Probably not.

Even with a subpar secondary, the Giants can probably force the Titans toward the ground game — and it’s not as if they need extra incentive to give All-Pro RB Derrick Henry the ball.

And if the Titans decide to run as often as possible, that will give offensive-minded HC Brian Daboll, OC Mike Kafka and QB Daniel Jones an opportunity to get Giants bettors the late-game cover.

Bet: Giants +6 (-110, PointsBet)
Personal Projection: Giants +2.75
Limit: Giants +4.5


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