NFL Week 1 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Longshot Bets (2023)
Week 1 is upon us, and now is the best time to take a look at some long-shot bets for the first of 16 games of the season. With high-scoring affairs expected in many games and numerous rookies making their NFL debuts, some long-odds bets are just too good to pass up.
Here are the best longshot bets of Week 1 of the NFL season.
NFL Week 1: Top Longshot Bets
Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa 300+ Passing Yards Each (+330)
We start off our picks with a bet that doesn't feel like all that much of a long shot. Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa clash in what is expected to be one of the highest-scoring games of Week 1. Both of these quarterbacks can put up video-game numbers, so why are the odds for this bet so valuable?
A lot of it probably has to do with Tua's health. He hasn't played since Week 16 and with how many injuries he suffered in 2022, there are many who wonder if he will be able to take hits this season. But we're going to assume Tua remains healthy throughout the game.
Last season, Tagovailoa threw for just 145 yards against the Chargers in what was easily his worst performance of the season. But he also threw for 300 yards four times in 2022, and he surpassed 280 yards on three other occasions. This game should be a shootout and with all their weapons and their talent, both of these QBs can easily clear 300 yards.
Bijan Robinson 2+ Touchdowns (+600)
The rookie running back has received a lot of attention ever since being drafted by the Falcons. He takes over as the lead back on a team that averaged nearly 160 yards per game on the ground in 2022. But most importantly, he gets a great matchup in Week 1.
The Panthers rush defense isn't terrible, but it's not great either. And with their offense going through a complete overhaul, we're banking on Bryce Young and company struggling in this game. If that happens, then the Falcons are going to have numerous short fields to work with and that's great news for Robinson.
Robinson scoring once doesn't present great odds at just +105, even though we'd still take that bet. But at +600 for two touchdowns, we think this is one of the best longshot bets of the week.
Jalen Hurts First Touchdown Scorer (+750)
Jalen Hurts ran for 13 touchdowns last season and there is no reason to think that he won't run for 13 more this year. In 2022, the Eagles used the QB sneak to their advantage throughout the season as they were able to pick up plenty of short-yardage first downs and score touchdowns.
The Eagles should score the first touchdown in their matchup with the Patriots just based on talent alone. And when they get in the red zone, they don't have a go-to goal-line back with Kenneth Gainwell and D'Andre Swift expected to split time. That makes Hurts their main goal-line threat and against a Bill Belichick-coached team, the best thing is to do what works.
At +750, this bet is simply too good to pass up for a guy that could realistically score a touchdown in 75% of his games this season.
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Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.