NFL Week 1 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Patriots vs. Dolphins (2022)
Here is my preview and best bet for the 2022 NFL Week 1 game between the Patriots and Dolphins.
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New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
- Kickoff: Sunday, Sep. 11, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: Hard Rock Stadium
- TV: CBS
Patriots at Dolphins: Consensus Lines
Lines from our BettingPros odds page and as of Sep. 1.
- Spread: Dolphins -3
- Over/Under: 47
- Moneyline: Dolphins -162, Patriots +135
Patriots at Dolphins: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Sep. 1.
- Spread: Patriots – 33% bets, 39% money
- Over/Under: Over – 50% bets, 68% money
- Moneyline: Dolphins – 67% bets, 78% money
Patriots at Dolphins: Key Injuries
New England Patriots Injuries
- RB Ty Montgomery (ankle) – unknown status
- WR Tyquan Thornton (shoulder) – out for first half of season
- EDGE Ronnie Perkins (undisclosed, IR)
- CB Joejuan Williams (shoulder, IR)
Miami Dolphins Injuries
- CB Byron Jones (ankle, PUP)
- TE Adam Shaheen (knee, IR)
Injury Analysis
The Patriots enter the season relatively healthy: Thornton is the only potential starter who will miss Week 1. The Dolphins will be without Jones, their No. 2 corner, but they otherwise are also healthy.
Patriots at Dolphins: Situational Spots
New England Patriots Situation
The Patriots open the season with 3-of-4 on the road (at Dolphins, at Steelers, Ravens, at Packers), and they’re favored in just one of those games. After making the playoffs last year, the Patriots have a real chance to start 0-4.
Miami Dolphins Situation
The Dolphins have a brutal run of games near the end of the season in Weeks 13-17 (at 49ers, at Chargers, at Bills, Packers, at Patriots), so they need to bank some wins early in the year — but they also open with a challenging four-game stretch (Patriots, at Ravens, Bills, at Bengals). After Week 1, the Dolphins are underdogs of more than a field goal in each of their next three games. As much as the Patriots need this game, the Dolphins might need it more.
Patriots at Dolphins: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
New England Patriots Trends
- HC Bill Belichick: 30-15-2 ATS (29.5% ROI) as underdog
- HC Bill Belichick: 25-22 ML (36.4% ROI) as underdog
- HC Bill Belichick: 29-23 ATS (10.1% ROI) without QB Tom Brady
- Divisional Road Underdogs: 284-211-17 ATS (11.7% ROI) in Weeks 1-10
Miami Dolphins Trends
- QB Tua Tagovailoa: 8-3 ATS (39.4% ROI) at home
- QB Tua Tagovailoa: 3-0 ATS (90.8% ROI) vs. Patriots
Patriots at Dolphins: Key Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
New England Patriots Offense vs. Miami Dolphins Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.07 | 10 | -0.027 | 8 | -2 |
| Total SR | 48.6% | 4 | 43.0% | 9 | 5 |
| Total DVOA | 10.5% | 9 | -2.9% | 10 | 1 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.133 | 11 | -0.016 | 7 | -4 |
| Dropback SR | 50.8% | 5 | 44.7% | 6 | 1 |
| Pass DVOA | 24.7% | 10 | -0.3% | 9 | -1 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 5.4% | 8 | 8.0% | 4 | -4 |
| Rush EPA | -0.012 | 7 | -0.046 | 22 | 15 |
| Rush SR | 45.7% | 4 | 40.2% | 17 | 13 |
| Rush DVOA | 4.9% | 7 | -6.6% | 17 | 10 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.52 | 9 | 4.21 | 16 | 7 |
| Yards per Play | 5.7 | 10 | 5.3 | 11 | 1 |
| Points per Game | 27.2 | 6 | 21.9 | 15 | 9 |
| Rd vs. Hm DVOA | -12.8% | 23 | -10.4% | 4 | -19 |
New England Patriots Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2021 data: Min. 200 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR. 2019-21 data: Min. 600 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 600 pass attempts for AY/A.
2021: Mac Jones
- EPA + CPOE: 0.114 (No. 12)
- Air Yards per Attempt: 8.1 (No. 12)
- AY/A: 7.0 (No. 16)
- QBR: 50.9 (No. 16)
- ATS Value vs. Average: -0.08 (No. 24)
Miami Dolphins Offense vs. New England Patriots Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.046 | 22 | -0.063 | 4 | -18 |
| Total SR | 41.8% | 24 | 42.5% | 7 | -17 |
| Total DVOA | -10.8% | 24 | -12.8% | 4 | -20 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.028 | 20 | -0.051 | 4 | -16 |
| Dropback SR | 47.0% | 15 | 44.9% | 8 | -7 |
| Pass DVOA | 4.8% | 23 | -12.6% | 3 | -20 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.9% | 19 | 6.8% | 14 | -5 |
| Rush EPA | -0.180 | 31 | -0.080 | 14 | -17 |
| Rush SR | 32.3% | 30 | 38.9% | 11 | -19 |
| Rush DVOA | -23.1% | 29 | -13.1% | 10 | -19 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 3.81 | 30 | 4.45 | 22 | -8 |
| Yards per Play | 4.8 | 28 | 5.1 | 3 | -25 |
| Points per Game | 20.1 | 22 | 17.8 | 2 | -20 |
| Hm vs. Rd DVOA | -11.0% | 25 | -19.9% | 2 | -23 |
Miami Dolphins Quarterback Statistics
2021: Tua Tagovailoa
- EPA + CPOE: 0.085 (No. 19)
- Air Yards per Attempt: 7.2 (No. 33)
- AY/A: 6.5 (No. 23)
- QBR: 49.7 (No. 18)
- ATS Value vs. Average: -0.42 (No. 29)
2019-21: Tua Tagovailoa
- EPA + CPOE: 0.072 (No. 25)
- Air Yards per Attempt: 7.5 (No. 34)
- AY/A: 6.4 (No. 27)
Key Matchup: Patriots Run Offense vs. Dolphins Run Defense
In our FantasyPros unit power rankings, we have the Patriots offensive line in the top 10 and the Dolphins defensive line in the bottom 10.
| Rank | Offensive Line | Opp DL | DL Rank | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | NE | MIA | 23 | 16 |
And we also see the Patriots running backs as having a significant edge over the Dolphins defensive front seven.
| Rank | RBs | Opp Defense | DL Rank | LBs Rank | RB-DL Edge | RB-LB Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | NE | MIA | 23 | 24 | 10 | 11 |
In 2021, the Patriots offense had a notable statistical edge over the Dolphins defense in Rush EPA (7 vs. 22), Rush SR (4 vs. 17), Rush DVOA (7 vs. 17) and Adjusted Line Yards (9 vs. 16).
With the departure of defense-focused HC Brian Flores, the Dolphins might be worse on that side of the ball than they were last year, and they also might’ve lost their Pats-specific edge, given that Flores used to coach on the New England staff.
A gap-heavy rushing team for years, the Patriots have been called out this offseason by beat reporters for struggling to implement a zone-blocking scheme in practice. To me, this development doesn’t mean that the Patriots are actually going to abandon the power attack. I think it means that they’re experimenting with and adding to the running game to make it even more dominant.
This offseason, the Patriots jettisoned RG Shaq Mason via trade and they lost LG Ted Karras in free agency, but they otherwise have good continuity along the offensive line with veterans LT Trent Brown, C David Andrews, RG Michael Onwenu (who started eight games last year at left guard and right tackle) and RT Isaiah Wynn, all of whom have started multiple seasons for the team.
To this cohesive unit the Patriots added first-round rookie LG Cole Strange, who was a collegiate mauler as a run blocker.
RBs Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson make up one of the league’s best backfield duos, and the Dolphins are foundationally weak up the middle: NT Raekwon Davis last year had a 36.1 run defense grade and 29.1 tackling grade (per Pro Football Focus).
If the Patriots are able to dominate the ball and extend drives with their ground game, they should be able to keep this game close. And they might even break their ATS losing streak against QB Tua Tagovailoa.
Bet: Patriots +3 (-105, DraftKings)
Personal Projection: Patriots +1
Limit: Patriots +3 (-110)
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