NFL Week 1 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Underdog Bets (2023)
A new NFL Season is finally here! Betting on the NFL is the most popular among fans, but it’s one of the hardest to win at consistently. This season will be no different from the others and it’s sure to be full of chaos and surprises. Every year, I remind myself of a stat that has always tended to stay true: since 2000, Week 1 NFL underdogs have covered the spread 53% of the time and won straight up 34% of the time. This trend usually continues throughout the season, as underdogs have covered the spread 52% of the time in the past 10 seasons. The moral of the story is to find the value underdogs each week in order to have a successful betting season in the NFL.
This article will do exactly that. Each Thursday, we’re going to find our best underdog plays of the week. They won’t always feel good, but we will trust the numbers to get the results we want. Lets kick off Week 1!
NFL Week 1: Top Underdog Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Carolina Panthers (+3.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons
Let’s start with one of my favorite games of the day. These division rivals know each other well and always appear to be in close games. Last year, we were blessed to watch an overtime thriller between these two teams, which resulted in a three point win by the Falcons. Ironically, the Panthers were on track to win the game, before a penalty for unsportsmanlike conduct led to a missed extra point at the end of regulation. A couple weeks later, the Panthers won by 10 at home on Thursday night without Christian McCaffrey.
The Panthers revamped their roster and coaches since these games, and I would argue that they’ve improved more than the Falcons. Despite losing McCaffrey and DJ Moore, the Panthers selected Bryce Young with the first overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. They also added some veterans in Adam Thielen and Miles Sanders and put together a great coaching staff led by Frank Reich and Ejiro Evero.
Bryce Young is a rookie, but he is not afraid of the big stage as he played in prominent college football games through his entire career at Alabama. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him outperform Falcons QB Desmond Ridder.
Carolina is going to surprise some people this year, and it starts with Week 1 in Atlanta.
Bet: Panthers +3.5 vs. Falcons
Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants (+3.5)
The Cowboys will travel to New York and face the Giants to kick off Sunday Night Football in 2023. The Cowboys won both games last year by 7 and 8 points, but this Giants team has been on the rise since Brian Daboll arrived. The Giants were able to get Saquon Barkley back in the building with a new contract, and I believe he will have something to prove this year. They also added some solid pieces to both sides of the ball in A’Shawn Robinson, Darren Waller, and Isaiah Simmons. Meanwhile, the Cowboys lost some pieces in Dalton Schultz and Ezekiel Elliot.
I’m looking for the energy to be high in New York coming off a 2022 season in which they produced a playoff win for the first time in a while. The Giants should be hungry to get some revenge from last season’s losses and the Cowboys may get off to a slow start as their new-look offense tries to gel.
Look for the Giants to play a tough divisional game and keep this one close in primetime at home.
Bet: Giants +3.5 vs. Cowboys
Las Vegas Raiders (+4) vs. Denver Broncos
The Raiders will travel to Denver to face the Broncos in Week 1. This is one of the more interesting games as both of these teams look a lot different from last year. The Broncos come in with a new head coach in Sean Payton to replace Nathaniel Hackett. He’ll attempt to revitalize this offense that finished 2022 with an abysmal 16.9 average points scored, dead last in the NFL, but the Broncos got off to a bad start in 2023 after losing WR Tim Patrick for the season to injury.
The Raiders also have some new faces, starting with QB Jimmy Garoppolo who replaces Derek Carr. Fortunately, they were able to come to terms on a deal with the NFL’s leading rusher Josh Jacobs before the season and the Raiders won both games against Denver in 2022.
If the Raiders can establish the run with Jacobs early and avoid mistakes with Garoppolo, Denver may have a hard time building a lead in this one. RB Javonte Williams is coming off an ACL tear from last season and may be limited in Week 1. That paired with Payton’s new offensive system may lead to a slow start on offense for the Broncos. If Chandler Jones is available to play Sunday, him and Maxx Crosby could wreak havoc on Russell Wilson.
I like the Raiders to come out strong in Week 1 and take Denver to the wire in a close game.
Bet: Raiders +4 vs. Broncos
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