NFL Week 1 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Underdog Bets (2024)
Underdogs are supposed to be the inferior team. They are expected to lose, but they often don’t. They’ve gone 183-163-14 against the spread (ATS) since 2000 and 122-235-3 straight up. Learning how to pick the ones that will hit could put you on the way to becoming a happy fan and bettor. In this article, we will put a spotlight on a few underdogs we think have a chance to win outright or against the spread.
The following are our top three choices for Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season.
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Best Week 1 Underdog Bets
(Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Green Bay Packers (+110) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-2)
- Friday, September 6 @ 8:15 p.m. ET on Peacock/NBC
- Corinthians Arena in Sao Paulo, Brazil
I think there is an expectation that the Eagles team that rolled out to a 10-1 start last season will be back. That version of the team very well could be the one that shows up Friday night in Brazil. But I’m not convinced they’ve figured out what broke down the stretch last season, resulting in a 1-5 finish.
On the other hand, Green Bay did improve the offense with the addition of former Raiders running back Josh Jacobs. With a better running game, some of the pressure will be taken off Jordan Love and the passing game. That could make it easier for Love to pick up where he left off last year.
If Love does pick up where he left off, whether the Eagles fixed whatever broke last season will not matter. It will be a wildly entertaining and competitive game either team can win. In games like that, I prefer to go with the underdog and plus-money odds.
Pick: Packers Moneyline (+110)
Dallas Cowboys (+110) vs. Cleveland Browns (-2.5)
- Sunday, September 8 @ 4:05 p.m. ET on FOX
- Huntington Bank Field in Cleveland, OH
Week 1 of the NFL season has not been great for the Cowboys recently, as they’ve gone 4-6 since 2014. After losing Dan Quinn, it is fair to wonder what the defense will look like. They’ll have a couple of new starters on the offensive line, which does not bode well against Myles Garrett and the Browns’ pass rush. For a run game, they’ll depend on Ezekiel Elliott, someone they were okay with letting him walk last season.
However, the bones of a good defense remain and Mike Zimmer is an excellent defensive coach. The running game was questionable last season, too. Dak Prescott ended up throwing for 4500+ yards and 36 touchdowns.
The Cleveland defense will make it tough for Prescott to get the offense on track. But the Cowboys’ defense will make it even more challenging for Deshaun Watson. Not necessarily because the Dallas defense is better, but because Watson has yet to regain the form that made the Browns willing to overpay for him.
Pick: Cowboys Moneyline (+110)
New York Jets (+180) vs. San Francisco 49ers (-4.5)
- Monday, September 9 @ 8:20 p.m. ET on ESPN/ABC/ESPN+
- Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, CA
San Francisco will be one of the best teams in the NFL once again this season. They don’t have an apparent flaw going into the season. There is no reason to think the defense can’t be one of the top units in the league. Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle are four of the best offensive weapons in the NFL. No other team can boast as impressive a group.
If any flaws do appear, few coaches can deal with them in-season quite like Kyle Shanahan. But in Week 1, Aaron Rodgers may be too much for the 49ers to handle.
Rodgers is 13-6 straight up and 11-8 against the spread with wins straight up in his last 10 starts on Monday Night Football (MNF). After listening to his haters for an entire season, he’ll never admit it, but he’ll be gunning to prove them wrong and to prove the Jets did not make a mistake in acquiring him.
It helps that he has an excellent group of skill position players at his disposal; not as good as Brock Purdy’s, but Rodgers (unlike Purdy) can make bad players good, good players excellent and excellent ones into superstars.
Underdogs have a solid history on MNF in Week 1 (29-12-1 ATS since 1988). Rodgers is 6-3 all-time vs. the 49ers.
Our Pick: Jets +4.5