NFL Week 1 Pick-Em Advice, Picks & Predictions (2023)
Week 1 of the NFL season is here, and there are quite a few juicy matchups right off the bat. While the Baltimore Ravens, Minnesota Vikings, Jacksonville Jaguars and Washington Commanders seem destined to win, there are a bunch of other teams that will be in dogfights in Week 1.
Below, we will look at some toss-up games, as well as a potential upset play that could give you a huge advantage in your pick’em pool.
Here is our best NFL pick’em advice for Week 1:
NFL Week 1 Pick’em Advice & Picks
Detroit Lions vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Travis Kelce hyperextended his knee on Tuesday, and his status for Thursday night's opener is in doubt. His loss would be massive for the Chiefs. However, even if he does play, could the Lions pull out the victory in this game?
In recent seasons, teams that have had success against the Chiefs have done two things: Run the ball effectively and don't turn the ball over. The Lions have a solid one-two punch in the backfield with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. They also have Jared Goff, who didn't throw an interception during the last nine games of 2022.
Without Chris Jones, the Chiefs’ defense may struggle to get off the field. While Patrick Mahomes should have a field day against the Lions’ secondary, he may not get many opportunities in this game. If you're looking for an upset, this is the place to go whether Kelce plays or not.
The Pick: Detroit Lions
Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears
The Jordan Love era in Green Bay begins with a trip to Chicago. The Bears are a popular sleeper pick this season, and with Justin Fields healthy, they could surprise a lot of teams. Shockingly, the spread for this game only shows the Bears favored by one despite the hype around them heading into Week 1.
Don't overthink this one. If Love ends up being a stud for the Packers, then take your loss and learn from it. But based on what each team is putting on the field, the Bears are simply too explosive for the inexperienced Packers offense.
The Pick: Chicago Bears
San Francisco 49ers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Many people aren't discussing this game, but this is a phenomenal matchup. The Steelers won four in a row to end 2022 as Kenny Pickett started to feel comfortable in the starting role. They open the season at home against one of the Super Bowl favorites, the San Francisco 49ers.
While many are just checking the 49ers' box and moving on, there could be an upset brewing in Week 1. Last season, the Steelers upset the Bengals in Cincinnati in Week 1 before losing four consecutive games.
We ultimately believe that the 49ers will pull out the victory, but this will be a close game. If you're looking for an upset play, this is not a bad place to look.
The Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers
Miami Dolphins vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Tua Tagovailoa vs. Justin Herbert is set to be the most entertaining matchup of Week 1. These are two of the best young quarterbacks in the game. With the weapons at their disposal, we could see both teams score in the 30s.
Last season, when these two teams met, Tagovailoa was just 10-28 for 145 yards, as the Dolphins lost 23-17. But even with Herbert outpassing Tagovailoa by more than 200 yards, the Dolphins were still in the game until the very end. With Tua entering the season healthy, this Dolphins team can beat anyone anywhere.
The Chargers are 4-0 on opening day in the last four seasons, but each win has been too close for comfort. We expect a similarly close game on Sunday. While the Dolphins can pull out the victory, we will give a slight advantage to the home team.
The Pick: Los Angeles Chargers
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Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.