Early NFL Week 1 Odds, Picks & Predictions (2024)
Football is by far the most popular sport in the U.S. The NFL continued to show that in many ways this offseason, from the great ratings that the NFL Combine and Draft got (the draft in Detroit also drew a record crowd this year) to most of the league’s offseason moves making headlines.
The latest thing to take attention away from the NHL and NBA Playoffs was the NFL schedule release, which now has most teams developing creative content to put on social media (still my favorite is the Tennessee Titans’ from last season).
The early schedule release means that we now have NFL Week 1 lines to bet on. While much can change through OTAs and preseason games between now and September, we’ll still offer our best early bets to take advantage of.
Read on for our top picks and predictions for Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season.
NFL Futures: Week 1 Odds, Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs
The NFL season kicks off with an incredible “Thursday Night Football†matchup, a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship Game. This has been a one-sided rivalry in these two young quarterbacks’ careers, as Patrick Mahomes is 4-1 head-to-head against Lamar Jackson. Jackson’s only win came in Week 2 of 2021, which required an 11-point fourth-quarter comeback.
Mahomes has an 86 QBR and a 13-2 TD-INT ratio in five games vs. Jackson, while Jackson has posted a 53 QBR and a 5-3 TD-INT ratio in that span. History is also working against Jackson in this matchup, as this is the fourth time the reigning MVP will play the reigning Super Bowl champion in the season opener. Each of the first three matchups was won by the defending champions.
For whatever reason, Baltimore called 10 designed rushes for 53 rushing yards against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game, which were both the fewest in any game with Jackson as quarterback. So while we expect the Ravens to make adjustments in this rematch, there is too much tilting this matchup in favor of the Chiefs.
NFL Picks: Chiefs -3 (-110)
Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles (São Paulo, Brazil)
This Packers-Eagles matchup is the first opening weekend game played on a Friday since Sept. 18, 1970.
There is a lot to like about Green Bay entering the season, as last year, they became the youngest team to win a playoff game since the 1970 merger. There is also reason for optimism on the defensive side of the ball. Though they have ranked 30th in yards per rush, 25th in Total QBR and 26th in third-and-long conversions over the last three seasons, they improved to eighth in the NFL in Defensive Efficiency from Week 16 through the Wild Card Round.
Jordan Love also turned it on and became one of the best quarterbacks in the league over the second half of the season last year. Love went 3-6 through the first nine games with a 14-10 TD-INT ratio and a 48 Total QBR. However, over the last eight games, he went 6-2 with an 18-1 TD-INT ratio and a 75 Total QBR, the best in the NFL.
While Love had the second-most passing touchdowns (32) and seventh-most passing yards (4,159), Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts struggled with 20 turnovers and had five games with multiple turnovers. Philadelphia also has two new coordinators (Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio). While Fangio will likely improve a defense that ranked 30th or worse in points per game allowed, Total QBR and third-down percentage, it will take time to get used to his system, and fans should not expect instant success.
NFL Picks: Packers ML (+105)
New England Patriots (+9) @ Cincinnati Bengals
This Patriots-Bengals spread is the only one in Week 1 thus far that is over a touchdown. We will gladly take the points with New England, who we expect to play inspired in Jerod Mayo’s first game as head coach.
Joe Burrow is back after missing six-plus games in two of the last four reasons. Not only do we expect there to be plenty of rust to shake off after missing much of last season, but he has always performed better at the end of seasons when he is healthy compared to the beginning.
In regular-season games one through nine of the season, Burrow is 17-18-1 with a 54 Total QBR and 7.3 yards per attempt, and the Bengals average 23.6 PPG. In games 10-17, Burrow has a 62 Total QBR, averages 7.8 yards per attempt and led his team to a 26.7 PPG scoring average.
It should also take time for Burrow to get used to a new offensive coordinator, as Brian Callahan left to become the head coach of the Tennessee Titans. While Patriots quarterbacks rank 29th in Total QBR and 27th in passing yards per game since the start of the 2020 season, we expect veteran Jacoby Brissett to play well early before giving way to rookie Drake Maye.
NFL Picks: Patriots +9 (-110)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.