NFL Week 1 Picks: Sleepers & Longshot Bets (2024)
Week 1 is here. We have three longshot bets that could be worth a play on Sunday. Kenneth Walker III could be in line for a huge game as the Seattle Seahawks take on the Denver Broncos and their putrid run defense. The Indianapolis Colts are home underdogs against the Houston Texans, but should they be? And will Kyler Murray have a great game when his Arizona Cardinals take on the Buffalo Bills?
Here are the best longshot bets of Week 1 of the NFL season.
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NFL Week 1 Sleepers & Longshot Bets
(Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Kenneth Walker 110+ Rushing Yards (+550)
Last season, the Broncos were the only team in the NFL to allow 5.0 yards per carry. They also finished the year allowing 137.1 rushing yards per game, which was third-worst in the league. With Bo Nix making his first NFL start, the Broncos offense is likely to go through some growing pains, which will not only give the Seahawks a comfortable lead for most of the game but will also pit the Seahawks' offense against a tired Broncos defense.
Kenneth Walker's season high in 2023 was only 105 yards, which is why this bet is such a long shot. However, in 2022, Walker rushed for more than 110 yards three times, and he put together a 167-yard rushing performance against the Los Angeles Chargers. What hurt Walker last season is that the Seahawks didn't hold comfortable leads in many games, so he saw his production decrease. With the Seahawks leading against a bad rush defense, Walker is in for a huge day.
Colts Win by 7-12 Points (+600)
Everyone has already moved the Texans to 1-0 and dropped the Colts to 0-1. But this is going to be a much better game than many are expecting. The Colts are at home, they have Anthony Richardson under center and they beat the Texans 31-20 in one of their two meetings last season.
Last season, these two teams met in Week 18 with the winner claiming the AFC South. Despite the Texans winning that game, the Colts were tied with them early in the fourth quarter. The Colts are better than they were a year ago, and while the Texans are, too, the home team may have an advantage here.
Picking how much a team will win by is very difficult, but we don't foresee the Colts winning this game by more than 10 points if they do pull out the victory. For +600 odds, take the Colts to win by a margin within this range.
Kyler Murray Over 300 Passing Yards (+600)
Kyler Murray hasn't thrown for 300 yards in a single game since October 30, 2022. Last season, his highest total was 262 yards. He also threw for 256 yards against the Los Angeles Rams. Murray only played in eight games in 2023, as he recovered from injury. Now healthy, Murray could finally top 300 passing yards for the first time in a year and a half.
Last season, the Bills allowed just 198.7 passing yards per game. They still have one of the elite secondaries in the league, but Murray has an exciting young group of wide receivers and Marvin Harrison Jr. is making his NFL debut. Additionally, if the Bills take a lead early, as many expect them to do, Murray will likely throw a lot of passes during the second half of this game. With a new favorite weapon in Harrison, Michael Wilson and Trey McBride, the garbage time numbers could shoot Murray well over the 300-yard mark.
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.