NFL Week 1 Player Prop Bets, Picks & Predictions (2024)
Betting overs on player props is fun. Betting unders on player props is ... less fun.
Overs are appealing. We get to endorse a player we love or a player with a matchup we love.
Unders are for haters. Betting an under means we're feeling salty about a player or a matchup.
Pass the salt.
I'm not exclusively betting player-prop unders this week, but I'm sprinkling in quite a few of them.
My theory is that with the shortened three-game preseason, defenses are way ahead of offenses for at least the first week or two of the regular season.
Last year, Week 1 was an under-fest. There were 40 or fewer points scored in 10 of the 16 games. The average number of points scored in Week 1 games last year was 41.0. Take away the Dolphins' 36-34 win over the Chargers, and the average total dipped to 39.1.
And yet, nine games on this year's Week 1 slate have totals higher than 43 points. Five games have totals of 47 points or higher.
A lot of the game totals are set too high, and a lot of the numbers on player props are set too high. Don't expect to see a lot of offensive pyrotechnics in the NFL this week.
And with that dash of salt, let's get down to business.
Week 1 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz's Favorites (2024)
All odds are courtesy of DraftKings, as of Thursday, Sept. 5.
Anthony Richardson UNDER 224.5 passing yards
Richardson is one of the most exciting young quarterbacks in the league, but the excitement is more about his running than his passing at this point.
In the two games Richardson started and finished before going on injured reserve last year, he passed for 223 and 200 yards. He completed 59.5% of his throws and averaged 6.9 yards per pass attempt
The Colts operate at a brisk offensive pace, which is my biggest concern with betting the under here. But I also expect the Colts to be run-heavy.
The under here seems like a good percentage play.
Brock Purdy UNDER 245.5 passing yards
The Jets are a brutal matchup for opposing quarterbacks. They allowed 198.4 passing yards per game last season and a meager 5.6 yards per pass attempt. They recorded 64 sacks, tied for fourth-most in the league. It's hard to do business against the Jets' superb cornerback trio of Sauce Gardner, D.J. Reed and Michael Carter.
Purdy averaged 267.5 passing yards per game in 2023, but 49ers head coach and playcaller Kyle Shanahan probably isn't going to let Purdy cut it loose in this game — not if he wants to win, anyway.
Look for Shanahan to call plenty of running plays. And expect a slow offensive pace from the 49ers, who averaged a league-high 28.4 seconds between offensive snaps last year.
Antonio Gibson UNDER 19.5 rushing yards
This is a low bar, but Gibson cleared it in only 4-of-16 games with the Commanders last season. He's on the Patriots now, backing up Rhamondre Stevenson and perhaps playing on passing downs.
New England is the biggest underdog on the board this week at +8, so the Patriots might not find themselves in a run-friendly game script when they face the Bengals in Cincinnati.
Taysom Hill OVER 7.5 rushing yards
Saints head coach Dennis Allen has said that Hill will be prominently involved in the offense this year. The hybrid quarterback/tight end averaged 25.1 rushing yards per game in 2023, and in his only game against the Panthers last year, Hill ran for a season-high 75 yards.
Oh, that's the other thing: The Carolina run defense was terrible last year, ranking dead last in DVOA. Smash the over here.
Brian Robinson Jr. OVER 42.5 rushing yards
Robinson cleared this number in 10-of-15 games last season, and he cleared it 8-of-9 times in games where he got 10 or more carries. Expect Robinson to get 10 or more carries against the Buccaneers this week.
Rookie QB Jayden Daniels will be making his NFL debut for Washington and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury would be wise to protect his young quarterback by calling plenty of runs — especially with the Commanders' offensive line being a subpar unit that might have trouble protecting Daniels from the Buccaneers' pass rush.
Mobile quarterbacks often boost the rushing efficiency of the running backs they play with, and Daniels is a dangerous runner. He and Robinson figure to have a symbiotic relationship this season. Daniels’ mobility bodes well for Robinson’s rushing efficiency, and Robinson’s rushing should help keep opposing pass rushers honest.
Cole Kmet UNDER 22.5 receiving yards
When the Bears' starting offensive unit was on the field in the preseason, Kmet split tight end snaps with Bears newcomer Gerald Everett. Not only is Kmet sharing TE snaps, but he'll also have to share targets with one of the best WR trios in the league — D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze.
Kmet and the Bears will be facing a Titans defense that gave up the sixth-fewest receiving yards to tight ends last season.
Javonte Williams OVER 15.5 receiving yards
Until the sportsbooks adjust — and I expect they'll be forced to adjust early in the season — I’m going to be hammering the overs on receiving yardage for the Broncos' top two running backs.
Denver had a league-high 153 RB targets last season. Broncos head coach Sean Payton has always gotten his running backs heavily involved in the passing game (as was the case with Alvin Kamara, Reggie Bush, Darren Sproles and others in New Orleans).
Broncos QB Bo Nix was a check-down and screen machine during his college career. This will be the first NFL game for Nix. Would it be a surprise if he repeatedly pressed the "easy" button by dumping off to his running backs?
Expect Williams to cruise past this number.
Jaleel McLaughlin OVER 13.5 receiving yards
Look for both of Denver's top two running backs to hit the over on receiving yardage. McLaughlin had 31 catches as a rookie last season.
Ezekiel Elliott over 8.5 receiving yards
Zeke didn't have much success as a runner during his one-year exile from Dallas, but he did manage to catch 51 passes for the Patriots last season.
It's not clear how Dallas is going to divide RB snaps between Elliott, Rico Dowdle and others, but Zeke figures to have a prominent role as the dean of the Cowboys' RB room. I expect him to catch at least a couple of passes and clear this low bar.
Mike Evans OVER 69.5 receiving yards
This one almost seems unfair.
Evans had 1,255 receiving yards last season and averaged 73.8 yards per game. He gets a primo Week 1 matchup against the Commanders, who may have the worst collection of cornerbacks in the league. Washington ranked dead last in DVOA against the pass last year and yielded a league-high 4,627 passing yards. The Commanders gave up 186.3 yards per game to wide receivers and didn’t do nearly enough to address their tattered defensive backfield.
Brandon Aiyuk UNDER 52.5 receiving yards
I like the under on Aiyuk's receiving yardage even more than I like the under on Brock Purdy's passing yardage.
As noted earlier, the Jets are a murderous matchup for opposing passing games. Aiyuk is going to get plenty of face time with Sauce Gardner, one of the top cornerbacks in the league. He'll also have to contend with D.J. Reed, a tough cover man in his own right.
Aiyuk averaged 6.6 targets per game last season but made up for modest target counts by being ruthlessly efficient, averaging an outrageous 12.8 yards per target. Don't expect anything close to that sort of efficiency against the Jets.
It also seems significant that Aiyuk missed all of training camp in a contract dispute and only returned to practice this week. It's possible he doesn't even play a full complement of snaps in the 49ers' Monday-night opener.