NFL Week 1 Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions (2022)
The NFL is a bettor’s dream, offering a boatload of wagering options. One of the best betting markets is the NFL Week 1 player prop bet market. They are an opportunity to bet on a player’s stats, such as passing yards, rushing yards, receptions, or touchdowns. They have perfect crossover appeal for fantasy sports gamers dipping their toes into the betting world. Savvy gamblers wisely check many books for the best prop odds, and the following suggestions are my favorite props after scanning multiple sportsbooks.
So, let’s look at some NFL Week 1 player prop bets.
View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Mo Alie-Cox Anytime Touchdown (+310 at Caesars Sportsbook)
According to the Betting Pros consensus, the Colts are -7.0 points, and the game’s total is 45.5 points, leaving the Colts with an implied total of 26.25 points. Thus, there are touchdowns available if the game goes according to plan. Why can’t the big-bodied converted basketball player Mo Alie-Cox reel in a touchdown?
He’s an inviting target in the red zone. Moreover, even in a more crowded tight end room on the Colts last year, he led Indy’s tight ends with nine targets in the red zone. Jack Doyle retired in the offseason, vacating eight targets inside the 20 and three touchdowns from the 2021 squad.
Alie-Cox is now positioned to command the lion’s share of playing time at tight end.
Additionally, after upgrading from Carson Wentz to Matt Ryan at quarterback, head coach Frank Reich might throw slightly more in scoring territory. According to Sharp Football Stats, the Colts passed at only a 44% rate when they were within 10 yards of scoring. Finally, according to Pro-Football-Reference, Houston was tied for the sixth-most touchdowns (eight) allowed to tight ends in 2021.
Aaron Jones Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Green Bay’s passing attack will look significantly different in 2022 after trading Davante Adams to the Raiders. In addition, Allen Lazard is doubtful, removing arguably the team’s No. 1 receiver from the mix. As a result, Jones might be Aaron Rodgers’ top weapon in the passing game.
He’s also shown he can erupt without Adams. According to 4For4 Football’s Market Share Splits App, Jones has averaged 6.7 targets, 5.1 receptions, 55.4 receiving yards, and 21.6 Air Yards in seven games without Adams from 2019 through 2021.
Jones’s Air Yards might not seem like many, but they’re indicative of being used downfield and not merely on swing passes. Further, he’s not just used out of the backfield, either.
According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Jones ran a route on 82.6% of his passing snaps, aligning inline 7.0% of the time, in the slot at a 7.0% clip, and wide 14.0% of the time. He was also tied for 12th out of 51 backs targeted at least 51 times with 1.52 Y/RR. So, Jones is an accomplished passing-game weapon. Jones will be integral to Green Bay’s offense, including their passing attack. So, it’s appealing wagering on his over at a modest -115 line.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.