NFL Week 1 Leans for Every Game & Best Bets (2022)
This season at BettingPros, we’re asking some of our experts to give leans and top picks for every game on the NFL slate. Here are all of their leans, picks, and predictions for Week 1.
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Week 1 Spread Leans for Each Game
| Home Team | Away Team | Home Spread | Fitzmaurice | Freedman | LaMarca | Greer | Wolbransky | Santora | MacMillan | Home Leans | Away Leans |
| DET | PHI | 4 | DET | DET | DET | DET | DET | PHI | PHI | 5 | 2 |
| CHI | SF | 7 | CHI | CHI | SF | CHI | CHI | CHI | CHI | 6 | 1 |
| CIN | PIT | -6.5 | PIT | PIT | PIT | PIT | PIT | CIN | PIT | 1 | 6 |
| MIA | NE | -3.5 | NE | NE | MIA | NE | NE | NE | NE | 1 | 6 |
| CAR | CLE | -1.5 | CLE | CLE | CLE | CAR | CAR | CLE | CAR | 3 | 4 |
| HOU | IND | 7 | HOU | HOU | HOU | HOU | HOU | IND | HOU | 6 | 1 |
| ATL | NO | 5.5 | ATL | ATL | NO | ATL | ATL | ATL | ATL | 6 | 1 |
| NYJ | BAL | 7 | BAL | NYJ | NYJ | NYJ | BAL | NYJ | BAL | 4 | 3 |
| WAS | JAX | -2.5 | JAX | JAX | JAX | JAX | JAX | WAS | WAS | 2 | 5 |
| MIN | GB | 1.5 | GB | GB | GB | MIN | GB | GB | MIN | 2 | 5 |
| TEN | NYG | -5.5 | NYG | NYG | NYG | TEN | NYG | TEN | NYG | 2 | 5 |
| LAC | LV | -3.5 | LAC | LAC | LV | LAC | LAC | LAC | LAC | 6 | 1 |
| ARI | KC | 6 | ARI | ARI | KC | ARI | KC | ARI | ARI | 5 | 2 |
| DAL | TB | 2.5 | DAL | DAL | DAL | DAL | TB | DAL | DAL | 6 | 1 |
| SEA | DEN | 6.5 | SEA | SEA | SEA | SEA | DEN | SEA | SEA | 6 | 1 |
Chargers (-3.5) vs. Raiders
We know the Chargers can light up the scoreboard, but they also have the makings of a top-shelf defense. The Raiders’ problematic offensive line figures to have difficulty fending off the impressive Chargers edge-rushing combo of Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa. In four career starts against the Raiders, Justin Herbert has averaged 311.3 passing yards and has thrown 10 TD passes and only one interception. The Chargers averaged 29.0 points in those four games. Look for the Chargers to cruise in their home opener.
– Pat Fitzmaurice
Browns (+1.5) vs. Panthers
The Browns missed the playoffs last year with an 8-9 record, and road underdogs who missed the postseason in the prior year are 73-46-4 ATS in Week 1 (since 2003), and I think that makes sense: The market is often too low on road teams and underdogs, and recency bias probably causes the market to undervalue non-playoff teams in Week 1. As for Panthers HC Matt Rhule, he’s 1-6 ATS and on the moneyline as a home favorite. With CBs Denzel Ward, Greg Newsome and Greedy Williams, the Browns have the cover men to slow down former QB Baker Mayfield’s new wide receivers in Carolina.
– Matthew Freedman
Browns (+1.5) vs. Panthers
Are we 100% sure that Baker Mayfield is better than Jacoby Brissett? You wouldn’t know if from last year’s numbers. Mayfield ranked 30th out of 37 qualifiers according to Pro Football Focus, and now he has to learn a new offense. The Browns also have the potential to be excellent defensively, featuring a true shutdown corner in Denzel Ward and two excellent pass rushers in Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney. Brissett should be able to lean on one of the best rushing attacks in football against a team that was below average against the run last season.
– Matt LaMarca
Texans (+7) vs. Colts
In all likelihood, the Texans will be one of the worst teams in the NFL again this year, but it’s hard to look at their offseason and say they haven’t at least gotten better. This team added veterans to their defense, upgraded significantly at head coach, and should see progression from Davis Mills, who surprisingly posted the second-best metrics of any rookie QB last year. 7 points is a large number for any away team to cover, let alone in week 1 against a divisional opponent. The Colts win, but I think it’s closer than the market expects.
– Robby Greer
Jaguars (+2.5) vs. Commanders
Carson Wentz will be facing a team coached by the man who coached him to a Super Bowl ring: Doug Pederson. Wentz could have taken his team to the playoffs with a win over the Jaguars last season; a game in which he was favored to win by -15.5. Wentz’s motivation should have been through the roof to win that game, and he fell flat. Facing Pederson won’t be enough motivation for Wentz. Wentz only covered four of the eight games he was favored in last season, Pederson has covered in eight of 11 when an underdog of 2.5 of fewer points.
– Ben Wolbransky
Cardinals (+6) vs. Chiefs
The Cardinals opened last season 7-0. Their first loss came at home to the Packers in Week 8, which was the same week Kyler Murray injured his ankle. This year, the hope is the Cardinals look more like the team that opened 7-0, versus the team that finished 2-7 down the stretch. The matchup with the Chiefs should provide plenty of points, as it currently sits as the highest total game of Week 1. With the addition of Murray’s college teammate Marquise Brown, I see no reason the Cardinals can’t keep pace with the Chiefs, especially as a home underdog getting six points.
– Dylan Santora
Eagles (-4) vs. Lions
The Eagles debatably had the most successful offseason of any team in the NFL by bolstering their defense with key additions like Hasson Reddick and James Bradberry, and adding to their offensive explosiveness by trading for A.J. Brown. The dual-threat weapon of Jalen Hurts at QB and one of the league’s highest-rated offensive lines combined to lead the league in rushing in 2021, and there’s no reason to believe that this offensive success will not continue in 2022. Detroit’s value has been inflated in the betting market, as they still possess one of the worst defenses in the NFL (especially in the secondary), and will be limited offensively to how far Jared Goff can take them. I expect for the Eagles to dominate both lines of scrimmage and pick up right where they left off last season, rolling over the Lions in Week 1.
– Austin MacMillan
Week 1 Total Leans for Each Game
| Home Team | Away Team | Over/Under | Fitzmaurice | Freedman | LaMarca | Wolbransky | Santora | MacMillan | Over Lean | Under Lean |
| DET | PHI | 48.5 | Under | Over | Over | Over | Over | Over | 5 | 1 |
| CHI | SF | 40.5 | Under | Over | Over | Over | Over | Under | 4 | 2 |
| CIN | PIT | 44.5 | Over | Over | Under | Over | Under | Under | 3 | 3 |
| MIA | NE | 46 | Under | Under | Under | Under | Under | Under | 0 | 6 |
| CAR | CLE | 42 | Under | Under | Under | Over | Over | Under | 2 | 4 |
| HOU | IND | 45.5 | Under | Under | Under | Over | Under | Over | 2 | 4 |
| ATL | NO | 42.5 | Over | Under | Over | Under | Over | Under | 3 | 3 |
| NYJ | BAL | 44.5 | Under | Over | Over | Over | Under | Under | 3 | 3 |
| WAS | JAX | 43.5 | Under | Under | Under | Over | Over | Under | 2 | 4 |
| MIN | GB | 47 | Over | Over | Over | Over | Over | Over | 6 | 0 |
| TEN | NYG | 43.5 | Over | Under | Under | Under | Under | Under | 1 | 5 |
| LAC | LV | 52 | Under | Over | Over | Under | Over | Over | 4 | 2 |
| ARI | KC | 53.5 | Under | Under | Over | Under | Under | Under | 1 | 5 |
| DAL | TB | 50.5 | Over | Over | Under | Over | Over | Under | 4 | 2 |
| SEA | DEN | 44.5 | Under | Under | Under | Under | Under | Under | 0 | 6 |
Colts vs. Texans (UNDER 45.5)
The Colts held the Texans to a combined three points in the two meetings between these teams last season. The Texans’ offense should fare slightly better against Indy this year, but this game doesn’t certainly profile as a shootout and should play under the 46-point total.
– Pat Fitzmaurice
Raiders vs. Chargers (OVER 52)
The Raiders and Chargers have one of the highest totals of the week, but I still think it’s too low. Justin Herbert was excellent in two games vs. the Raiders last year, leading the team to 28 and 32 points. Meanwhile, the Raiders made a massive improvement by acquiring Davante Adams in the offseason. He’ll get to face a secondary that is without newly acquired J.C. Jackson, and each of their remaining corners ranked 75th or worse according to Pro Football Focus. This game has all the makings of a shootout.
– Matt LaMarca
Eagles vs. Lions (OVER 48.5)
The Lions Week 1 game has gone over the Vegas line every season since 2011; these games averaged 51 points per game. Both the Eagles and the Lions have upgraded offenses from last season. After Amon-Ra St. Brown’s week 13 break out, the Lions averaged 25 points per game. In the same time range, the Eagles saw 28 points per game and averaged 26 for the entire season. These upgraded offenses will have plenty to show off and will build upon their strong finishes to 2021.
– Ben Wolbransky
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys (OVER 50.5)
Tampa Bay versus Dallas is a rematch of last year’s thrilling NFL season opener, which saw the Bucs win 31-29. This total would be well over the current consensus of 50.5 on the market. I anticipate another shootout, partially due to another pass-heavy game plan we saw the Cowboys deploy last year against the Bucs. Dak attempted 58 passes in the matchup en route to over 400 yards passing.
– Dylan Santora
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys (UNDER 50.5)
Though the total is among the highest on the board for Week 1, I am anticipating that these teams will get off to a slow start in 2022 due to key offensive departures since the last time they each took the field. The Cowboys dealt Amari Cooper in the offseason and will be missing Michael Gallup and Tyron Smith due to injury. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers lost Ali Marpet and Rob Gronkowski to retirement and have recently placed Ryan Jensen on the IR with a knee injury. Add in the uncertainty regarding Chris Godwin’s recovery from his ACL tear and the lack of repetitions between Tom Brady and his new receivers, and I believe that Tampa Bay is in for a very sluggish start. Look for this primetime matchup to go under the point total as both teams look to establish a rhythm in their depleted offenses.
– Austin MacMillan
Editor’s Note: Sometimes, our experts disagree. Be sure to follow the updated consensus NFL lines for Week 1 to monitor how these lines move ahead of kickoff.
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