NFL Week 1 Same Game Parlay Picks: Packers vs. Eagles (Friday)
The Packers vs. Eagles is a bonus primetime game in Week 1. They’re playing on Friday night in Brazil. It’s an intriguing matchup of NFC squads that reached the playoffs last season. When putting together a Same Game Parlay, one player’s props stood out from the rest, and he accounts for three legs of a four-leg parlay. The fourth leg is a line for a high-priced free agent addition to the Eagles, and a positive game script for his prop correlates with the other three legs.
Friday’s Best NFL Same Game Parlay Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
- Leg 1: Jordan Love 250+ Passing Yards (-125)
- Leg 2: Jordan Love Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-145)
- Leg 3: Jordan Love Over 5.5 Rushing Yards (-125)
- Leg 4: Saquon Barkley 60+ Rushing Yards (-150)
Jordan Love had an impressive first season as a starter for the Packers. He had an up-and-down start to his 2023 campaign. Yet, Love cranked it up after getting his feet wet.
Among 32 quarterbacks with at least 150 dropbacks from Week 10 through the Super Bowl, Love was second in Pro Football Focus’s (PFF’s) passing grade, tied for second in big-time-throw rate (7.2 BTT%), and ninth in adjusted completion percentage (76.0 ADJ%).
During his hot finish, Love completed 254-of-374 pass attempts (67.9%) for 2,904 passing yards (264.0 per game) and 25 passing touchdowns (2.3 per game). He had at least 250 passing yards in eight of his final 11 games and exceeded 1.5 passing touchdowns 10 times.
Love might be busy in Week 1. The Eagles hired Vic Fangio to be their new defensive coordinator this year. Still, Philadelphia had a pass-funnel defense last season. Per RotoViz’s pace app, the Eagles faced the highest situation-neutral pass rate (64%) last year. Encouragingly, Fangio’s defense in Miami also faced a 57% situation-neutral pass rate. Thus, even splitting the difference between Philadelphia’s and Miami’s situation-neutral pass rate would yield an above-average pass rate.
Obviously, dropping back often will enhance Love’s passing upside. It will also enhance his scrambling opportunities. According to Pro Football Reference, Love had 8.5 yards per scramble on 24 scrambles last year. Additionally, Love averaged 13.1 rushing yards per game, surpassing 5.5 rushing yards 11 times in 19 games. FantasyPros projects Love to have 252.6 passing yards, 1.8 passing touchdowns, and 12.5 rushing yards against the Eagles.
Like the Eagles, the Packers changed defensive coordinators this offseason, hiring Jeff Hafley to replace Joe Barry. It remains to be seen if teams will attack the Packers the same way this season as last year, but Green Bay had a run-funnel defense in 2023. The Packers were tied for facing the second-highest situation-neutral rush rate (46%) in 2023.
The Packers coughed up 94.3 rushing yards per game at 4.22 yards per carry to running backs last season. There were 12 instances of the Packers allowing at least 60 rushing yards to an opposing running back last year.
Interestingly, Saquon Barkley ran for 86 yards against the Packers behind Big Blue’s pitiful offensive line, with Tommy DeVito starting at quarterback no less. The Eagles had PFF’s third-highest run-blocking grade last year versus 30th for the Giants.
The Packers must also account for Jalen Hurts’ rushing ability and pass-catching weapons, theoretically creating more favorable box counts and lanes for Barkley. Philadelphia’s new feature running back averaged 68.7 rushing yards per game last year, surpassing 60 nine times in 14 games, with a median of 71.5.
If the favored Eagles are in a positive or neutral game script, Barkley should tote the rock often. As a result, FantasyPros projects Barkley to have 70.9 rushing yards in Week 1.
Parlay Odds: +500
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.