NFL Week 1 Survivor Pool Picks & Predictions: Advice for Large Pools (2022)

An increasingly popular way to bet on the NFL and stay involved for most of the season is a survivor pool (pick one winner of an NFL game each win, but you cannot use the same team twice). Some pools with a hefty entry fee or many participants can have prize pools in the tens of thousands.

Depending on the size of the pool, one may employ different strategies. For example, if a pool does not have many contestants, one may use a less risky strategy and pick a big favorite each week. On the other hand, if one is trying to best a pool of thousands of people, they may employ a contrarian style. A way to be contrarian is to pick teams that are less likely to be selected by others and save the better teams for later in the season while others may already have used them.

Each week I will be providing advice for which teams are best to select in survivor pools. Bettors that don’t enter these types of pools can still use this information from a betting perspective if they are comfortable laying big odds on money lines.

Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 1 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).

Contrarian Play to Beat a Large Pool

Washington Commanders (-164)

I personally do not have the courage to make this play, even though being successful with it would give survivor pool competitors a big leg up over the competition. Jacksonville has lost 17 consecutive road games, but the feeling around the Jaguars is that Super Bowl-winning head coach Doug Pederson will get the team turned around quickly after the failed Urban Meyer experiment. However, new Commanders quarterback Carson Wentz finished ninth in total QBR this season. So, by all means, take a stab with Washington if you are trying to best hundreds or thousands of other competitors, not in a smaller pool where a safer pick is more warranted.

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.