NFL Week 1 Thursday Night Football Best Bets (Lions vs. Chiefs)
The Detroit Lions will battle the Kansas City Chiefs at the home of the defending Super Bowl Champions, GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, in the first game of the 2023 NFL season. Here are our best bets and predictions for Thursday Night Football.
Week 1’s Best Thursday Night Football Bets
All wagers are one unit.
Detroit Lions +5.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
With Travis Kelce's status unknown, this spread is all over the place. Yet, whether he plays or not, we think that the Lions are going to cover in this game. Last season, five of the Lions’ eight losses were by four points or less. That includes three-point losses to the Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles.
With Chris Jones out, the Lions have a chance to rack up rushing yards and keep the ball away from Patrick Mahomes. If they can run the ball effectively, and keep their turnovers down, something they did well down the stretch last season, then they will cover even if Mahomes leads a game-winning drive late.
Jahmyr Gibbs Over 38.5 Rushing Yards (-110 at DraftKings)
The Chiefs only allowed 107.2 rushing yards per game last season, but most of their success came because they were always playing from ahead. Even if they lead this game from wire to wire, we expect to see the Lions running the ball often behind their strong offensive line.
The Lions’ backfield is brand new this season with the rookie Gibbs and David Montgomery expected to split carries. While Montgomery's total of 51.5 is a definite stay-away for us, Gibbs’ number seems way too low. Gibbs will likely be used more in the passing game, but we don't imagine that Dan Campbell is going to shy away from having his young running back attacking between the tackles.
It's also worth noting that last season, the Lions' leading rusher had more than 40 yards in all but one game.
Skyy Moore Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
With Kelce's status in doubt and Kadarius Toney coming back from an injury that hampered him during the offseason, this is the perfect time for Moore to have a breakout game. Moore could end up with the most targets of any Chief in Week 1, and if he does, then there is no reason to think he won't clear this number.
In his rookie season, he only caught 27 balls for 267 yards, but he is going to see a lot more snaps in Week 1 than he ever has in the NFL. If Toney doesn't play his usual snap count, then there will be times when Moore is the number two receiver on the field for the Chiefs. Throw out last season's numbers and just look at the secondary he is going against. This is a huge opportunity for Moore, and with Mahomes as his quarterback, we think he will cash in.
Jerick McKinnon Touchdown (+205 at DraftKings)
With Kelce's injury, many are looking at Noah Gray as a potential touchdown scorer in this game. While that seems like it makes sense, Gray is simply not the player Kelce is. His line is currently +225 and we don't think that is warranted.
Instead, we recommend going with a touchdown machine from a year ago, Jerick McKinnon. The 31-year-old scored 10 touchdowns last season, where he found the end zone in six consecutive games to end the regular season. He's a huge threat in the screen game, and with how good the Lions' defensive line is expected to be, we would not be surprised to see a lot of dump-offs go his way in this game. With his explosiveness and ability to find the goal line, we think this is the best touchdown scorer bet of Thursday night.
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Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.