NFL Week 1 Touchdown Scorer Picks: Packers vs. Eagles (Friday)
Friday night, we have a matchup in Brazil between the Green Bay Packers and the Philadelphia Eagles. Millions of dollars will get bet on this game. However, which touchdown prop bets should you bet? Let's take a look.
Packers vs. Eagles TD Scorer Prop Bets
All props are from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Green Bay Packers First TD Scorer: Romeo Doubs (+600)
While Christian Watson and Jayden Reed are the two stars in Green Bay's wide receiver room, Doubs has been Jordan Love's most reliable target. The third-year receiver stepped up last season when Watson and Reed missed time with injuries. He led the team in receiving touchdowns (eight) and first-down receptions (41).
More importantly, Doubs finished fourth in the NFL with 16 end zone targets and second with end zone touchdowns with eight last year (per Fantasy Points Data). Meanwhile, the Eagles had one of the worst secondaries in the league in 2023. They surrendered 27 receiving touchdowns to wide receivers, including seven as their opponent's first score of the game.
Philadelphia Eagles First TD Scorer: Saquon Barkley (+300)
The Eagles made a splash move in the offseason, going against Howie Roseman's nature, signing Barkley to a massive contract. Many believe Philadelphia made that move to lighten Jalen Hurts' workload at the goal line. Last year, the superstar running back had 10 touchdowns with the New York Giants, accounting for 40% of the team's total.
Barkley accounted for 30.8% of the Giants' first offensive team touchdowns in 2023, including three of the final five games. Meanwhile, an Eagles running back scored the team's first touchdown in only three games last season, with Hurts scoring the first touchdown in 35.3% of the contests. More importantly, the Packers surrendered 13 rushing touchdowns to running backs last year, the seventh-most in the NFL.
Anytime TD Scorer: Josh Jacobs (+115)
Green Bay joined Philadelphia in making a splashy move at the running back position in free agency, signing Jacobs to a four-year contract. The star running back had a down 2023 season, totaling six rushing touchdowns in 13 contests. However, he was arguably the top running back two years ago, totaling a career-high 12 rushing touchdowns, ranking fifth in the league.
While Jordan Love had the second-most passing touchdowns in the NFL last season, the Packers had only 10 rushing scores. Furthermore, Love led the team with four rushing touchdowns, showing the Green Bay's need for a massive upgrade at the running back position. The Eagles had a strong run defense in 2023, giving up nine rushing touchdowns to running backs. Yet, don't be surprised if Jacobs gets a short-yardage score Friday night.
Anytime TD Scorer: Dallas Goedert (+195)
Goedert has never been a high-end touchdown producer in his career. The veteran has 307 receptions in 83 career games but only 22 receiving scores, posting a 5.2% touchdown rate. Furthermore, he has scored three receiving touchdowns in three of the past four years, with his career-high of five coming in 2019. Yet, bettors should give him solid odds to find the end zone in this game.
The Packers surrendered seven receiving touchdowns to tight ends last season, the fourth-most in the NFL. Furthermore, teams featured their tight end in the red zone against Green Bay. An inline pass catcher was targeted inside the red zone 15.9% of the time against the Packers, the fifth-most in the league last year (per Fantasy Points Data). Don't be surprised if Goedert scores one of his three touchdowns for the season in Brazil.
Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.