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NFL Week 10 Anytime TD Scorer Picks & Predictions (2024)

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It was a rough week for me in the Anytime Touchdown (ATD) and First Touchdown (FTD) realms a week ago. It was easily my worst week of the season. But just as we cannot get too high when we win, we must not get too low when we lose. Let's make up for it in Week 10 and get back in the black.

As always, I am tracking these using bet sizes of 0.4 units on ATD and 0.1 units on FTD. Whether you play one or all of them, use your discretion and adjust as you see fit. We compare anytime touchdown stats to prop bet odds and projections to help identify this week's best bets.

NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets

Who will score a touchdown in this week's NFL Games? The Anytime TD market covers any player who carries or receives the ball into the end zone, not the QB who passes the ball. We compare anytime touchdown stats to prop bet odds and projections to help identify today's best bets. View Anytime Touchdown odds across sportsbooks here.

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Best NFL Week 10 Anytime TD Scorer Prop Bets

All wagers are 0.5 units

New York Giants at Carolina Panthers

Tyrone Tracy Jr. (RB - NYG)

The first of my 11 Week 10 ATD and FTD picks is for the overseas matchup between the New York Giants and Carolina Panthers. I like each team's starting running back in this game, but am going with Giants back Tyrone Tracy Jr. The difference for me comes down to the defenses. New York's defense has not been great by any means, but Carolina's has been awful all season long. Opponents are averaging 32.6 points per game against the Panthers this year. No other NFL team is allowing more than 28.1 points per game. The Panthers have allowed 15 touchdowns to opposing running backs this year. No other NFL team has allowed more than 12. Tracy Jr. has recently taken over as New York's lead running back and should be in a great position to score on Sunday.

New England Patriots at Chicago Bears

Rhamondre Stevenson (RB - NE)

I must admit that it does not feel great to back the New England Patriots offensive line. Most metrics have them ranked as the worst run-blocking unit in the NFL. However, running back Rhamondre Stevenson has still scored seven touchdowns in eight games despite that. That makes Stevenson an intriguing ATD and FTD bet, especially at these odds. No other running back with at least seven touchdowns scored this season has ATD odds above +100 this week and though New England has a poor offensive line, Chicago's defensive front hasn't exactly reminded anyone of their 1985 squad. The Bears rank 30th in defensive DVOA versus the run. They have given up eight rushing touchdowns to opposing backs this year while allowing 5.08 yards per carry. Given all that, I believe it is well worth the price to go with Stevenson here.

Minnesota Vikings at Jacksonville Jaguars

Justin Jefferson (WR - MIN)

Justin Jefferson has been one of the best wide receivers in the NFL all season long. He now gets arguably his most favorable matchup of the season when the Minnesota Vikings face the Jacksonville Jaguars. Jacksonville ranks dead last in the NFL in DVOA and EPA versus the pass. Schematically, this matchup works to Jefferson's advantage as well. The Jaguars play man coverage at the third-highest rate in the league. However, they are among the worst defenses in man coverage in several key metrics, including defensive success rate. Jefferson lines up all over the offensive formation, but look for Minnesota to target Jefferson when lined up against Ronald Darby. Excluding a recent game against Green Bay in which Darby only played nine snaps, the veteran has given up a touchdown catch in three of his last four games.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Commanders

Najee Harris (RB - PIT)

The Pittsburgh Steelers and Washington Commanders square off in Week 10 in a matchup featuring two of the surprise teams of the season. Both teams enter this game as division leaders with only two losses each. While Pittsburgh has been a stellar defensive team all year, Washington's defense has picked things up in recent weeks following a slow start. However, one area where the Commanders have struggled recently is stopping the run. In their last four games, Washington has given up five rushing touchdowns and 5.16 yards per carry to opposing running backs. For the season, the Commanders are allowing a league-high 1.75 yards per carry before contact. For these reasons, I am going with Steelers running back Najee Harris as my ATD/FTD pick for this game.

Harris was rather pedestrian over the first month or so of the 2024 NFL season. He failed to score in his first five games, totaling just 270 yards on 82 carries. However, he has been a revelation in recent weeks. Harris has gone over 100 rushing yards in each of his last three outings, scoring twice. His recent hot streak should cement his status as Pittsburgh's lead back moving forward, even with the expected return this week of Cordarrelle Patterson. Pittsburgh is coming off a bye, so Harris should be fully rested and ready to roll this week.

Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts

Khalil Shakir (WR - BUF)

Both the Buffalo Bills and Indianapolis Colts have performed similarly from a defensive perspective this year, but one team is averaging a shade under 30 points per game on offense and has a potential league MVP candidate under center. The other averages just over 20 points per game and has a 39-year-old who is on his fifth team in seven years. So, with all due respect to Joe Flacco, I am going to back Josh Allen here. Give me Khalil Shakir as the preferred ATD and FTD pick in this game.

If you prefer another Bills pass catcher such as Amari Cooper or Dalton Kincaid, that is fine, I will not fight you too hard on either option. Shakir just feels like the best fit to exploit this matchup. The Colts play zone coverage at a 79-percent clip, the third-highest mark in the league. However, they rank in the bottom five in first-down-plus-touchdown rate while in that scheme. Meanwhile, Shakir has averaged 2.77 yards per route run in zone coverage this season. In total, he has caught 42-of-45 targets. I believe his connection with Allen will enable Shakir to find the end zone in this game.

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs

Kareem Hunt (RB - KC)

As good as Denver's defense has been this season, Kansas City's is a tick better. While the Chiefs have not been an offensive juggernaut, they are still better on that side of the ball than the Broncos, as well. So for me, this pick came down to the Kansas City side. In the end, I am going with Kareem Hunt. The Chiefs seem content running Hunt into the ground. Hunt has gone from being unemployed eight weeks ago to earning 97 carries over his last four games. He has not been the most efficient back by any means, but Hunt has scored in all four games.  Denver has given up six total touchdowns to opposing backs in their last five games. I like the odds of Kareem Hunt adding to these recent trends on Sunday.

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

Bijan Robinson (RB - ATL)

The Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints are two teams heading in opposite directions. New Orleans has been atrocious on defense recently, particularly against the run. They have allowed nine touchdowns to opposing running backs in their last five games. There are only seven other teams in the NFL who have given up more than that in the entire season. I am going with Bijan Robinson as my touchdown scorer in this Week 10 matchup. Robinson has scored in three of his last four games and has gained 499 scrimmage yards in that span. If you want to get cute, you can play Tyler Allgeier instead. He has scored twice in four weeks and has 43 touches in that span. His best ATD price is +200 at FanDuel while his best FTD price is +1100 at Fanatics.

San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

George Kittle (TE - SF)

Christian McCaffrey is making his 2024 season debut for the San Francisco 49ers this week. The sportsbooks have wasted no time in pricing McCaffrey's ATD and FTD lines as they have been for the past couple of years. If you want to pay up for CMC this week, no judgment, but I will not be joining you. Instead, I am going with George Kittle. Normally, I might say Kittle has less touchdown equity with McCaffrey in the fold, but six touchdowns in six games is tough to ignore, especially given the matchup. In just the last four weeks, Tampa Bay has allowed opposing tight ends to catch 32 passes and score four touchdowns. Kittle should still be a factor in the red zone and is always a big-play threat. I like him to score another touchdown this week.

Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers

J.K. Dobbins (RB - LAC)

J.K. Dobbins found paydirt twice last week against the Cleveland Browns. The Chargers running back now has four touchdowns in his last four games and six on the season. I expect him to add to his touchdown totals on Sunday against a Tennessee Titans defense that has started to fall apart in recent weeks. Sure, games with Buffalo and Detroit are somewhat to blame, but the fact remains that they have allowed seven touchdowns to opposing running backs in the last three weeks. Even if Gus Edwards returns from injured reserve this week, Dobbins should get the majority of the workload. That gives him the edge to be the player most likely to take advantage of this matchup.

New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals

Kyler Murray (QB - ARI)

The New York Jets may have snapped their five-game losing streak last week, but their run defense still struggled. While primary running backs have accounted for four rushing touchdowns against New York in their last three games, the Jets have also allowed a rushing touchdown to an opposing quarterback in three of their last four contests. Kyler Murray has not run as much this season as he has in the past, but he chooses his spots wisely. Murray has at least 45 rushing yards in five of nine games this year. He also has the highest rushing average in the NFL among 90 players with at least 25 carries. If you wish to play this safer, James Conner is a solid option as well. His best ATD line is +100 at BetMGM, while his best FTD price is +600 at DraftKings.

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys

Jalen Hurts (QB - PHI)

Yes, I am capping off my Week 10 Anytime Touchdown and First Touchdown picks with a pair of quarterbacks. The best price you can get on Eagles running back Saquon Barkley is -175 for an ATD bet at Bet365. I do not hate that price, but Barkley and Jalen Hurts each have eight touchdowns this season. The Dallas Cowboys have already given up three rushing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks this year. No NFL team has allowed more than four and the thing about that is Dallas hasn't even played Philadelphia or Washington yet. The Eagles are certainly not shy about running Hurts when the situation warrants it, and sometimes even when it doesn't. Given the price disparity between him and Barkley, Jalen Hurts is my preferred touchdown play in this game.

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