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NFL Week 10 Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prop Odds, Picks & Predictions (2022)

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Touchdowns are why we tune into NFL RedZone each Sunday. Below I will provide my predictions for players who will appear on RedZone by scoring a touchdown this Sunday (excludes the Sunday night game).

Below are my year-to-date results (assumes one unit per prop):

Week Units ROI Record
YTD +3.3 4.7% 28 – 41
4 +0.6 5.2% 5 – 7
5 +5.8 44.6% 4 – 9
6 -7.0 -63.6% 2 – 9
7 +2.0 17.8% 6 – 5
8 +0.4 3.0% 6 – 6
9 +1.6 15.8% 5 – 5

 

Seattle Seahawks at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Godwin has been a frustrating player on the stat sheet and for this article this year. He has received double-digit targets in five of the last six games but has no TDs to show for it. The blame can be put on the Bucs’ offense, as they rank 25th in points scored (18.5) during that span. The hope is the last-second win over the Rams last week gives Brady and company something to build on. Their implied team total sits at 23.5, and they are 2.5-point favorites over the surprising Seahawks for the game in Munich. The consistent target volume is enough to keep chasing Godwin as he looks for his first TD this season.

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers

Schultz should be back to his full workload coming out of the bye for the Cowboys. He was battling a knee injury before the bye but did return for Weeks 6 and 7. During that span, he saw 12 targets (23.1% share) on only 52 passing attempts from Dak. Schultz broke out last season with Dak en route to eight TD receptions, and that connection should start to heat up again with both players healthy now.

Minnesota Vikings at Buffalo Bills

Vegas reduced the Bills’ implied team total from 28.5 to 23.5 with the expectation that Josh Allen will not be able to play this week. They are still 3.5-point favorites over the Vikings at home, but this game no longer has one of the higher totals on the slate. That said, the Vikings rank 30th in passing yards allowed to WRs per game (191.3), including four TDs over the last two weeks. Keenum and Diggs have familiarity during their time in Minnesota together, so there is a chance to take advantage of longer odds than usual this week for one of the elite receivers in the league.

Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans

Sutton leads the team in the red zone (18)  and end zone (9) targets this season. The nine end zone targets rank fourth in the NFL. The Titans rank second in the league in rushing yards allowed, so the Broncos will likely attack the Titans’ 31st-ranked secondary (passing yards allowed) this week. The total for this game is the lowest on the slate (37.5), but I think Wilson should continue to look Sutton’s way during their trips to the red zone this week.

Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins

Peoples-Jones has been a nice complement to Amari Cooper this season. Cleveland has been a run-first team this season, averaging 31.5 rushing attempts per game (1st in the NFL). DPJ is quietly averaging 75.3 receiving yards over his last three games and could take off in this offense once Watson gets under center. This week he will have a matchup with the Dolphins in the second-highest total on the slate (49.5). As we saw last week in the Dolphins’ matchup with the Bears, teams will be pushed on the offensive side of the ball to keep up with the explosive Dolphins. DPJ is a near-every-snap player and should have a good opportunity to find the end zone for the first time this season.

New Orleans Saints at Pittsburgh Steelers

Targeting the Steelers’ secondary has been successful this season. The Steelers have allowed the most yards (212.9) and the most TDs (13) to opposing WRs this season. Chris Olave has been the clear number-one target for the Saints. Since Week 2, he ranks 10th in the league with 9.3 targets per game. The targets are also coming when the Saints enter the red zone, where Olave has six more looks than his closest teammate.

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears

St. Brown started off the season on fire but, unfortunately, was hit with injuries starting in Week 3. He is back to full health, having played over 95% of the snaps the last two weeks and seeing 19 targets across those two games. He does not have much to show for it, but St. Brown remains a key piece to the Lions’ offense. He gets a matchup against a terrible Bears’ defense that just allowed 243 yards and two TDs to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The Bears allowed 42 points per game over the last two weeks and have one sack during that span, which should allow Goff time to connect with St. Brown.

Houston Texans at New York Giants

The matchup doesn’t get better than this for Barkley. The Texans are dead last in rushing yards per game allowed (180.1), 31.3 yards more than the next closes team. They have also given up seven TDs to opposing RBs over the last three games. Barkley averages 97.4 yards on the ground (3rd in the NFL) so it would be hard to imagine a poor showing coming out of the Giants’ bye. This is an anytime TD article, but +380 for two touchdowns is intriguing for Saquon as he continues to build his case for Comeback Player of the Year.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs

Etienne has now cashed for this article three weeks in a row and is established as an elite RB option weekly. He has gone over 100 total yards in five straight games and ranks second in the league with 32 red zone opportunities. While his odds are priced appropriately now, Etienne should continue to get high-value touches weekly. The Chiefs have given up the most catches to RBs per game (6.9) so it’ll be interesting to see if the Jaguars utilize Etienne in the passing game more than they have this season (3.0 targets per game).

Indianapolis Colts at Las Vegas Raiders

Jacobs has had a couple of down weeks after a stretch of three games where he found the end zone six times. The volume has still been there over the last couple of weeks, averaging 17 opportunities a game, but the Raiders offense has only scored 20 points over that span. The Raiders get a home matchup where they are 4.5-point favorites against the Colts, who appear to be tanking after firing Head Coach Frank Reich. Jacobs will likely get over 20 touches in this contest, so he should have a good opportunity to find the end zone.

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams

Prior to the season, this would have been viewed as a high-scoring matchup. As of Friday, the health uncertainty around both QBs has this game total at 40.5, the third lowest on the day. Even with the low total and uncertainty around the offenses, there will still be a few TDs in this matchup. Henderson led the backfield last week with 12 rushes, compared to Akers’ 5. Rookie Kyren Williams may start to get involved this week, but Henderson should lead the backfield again. The Cardinals have given up four TDs to RBs over the last two weeks.

(Data per PFF | Odds as of Friday afternoon)

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