NFL Week 10 Best Bets: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2022)
Our analysts provide their best bets for Week 10. Let’s take a look at our top picks for this Sunday’s NFL action.
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NFL Week 10 Best Bets: Odds, Picks & Predictions
LV -6 vs. IND
For the Colts, interim HC Jeff Saturday has never coached an NFL or college game or served on an NFL or college staff. The Ted Lasso vibes around Saturday and this organization are unreal. Interim OC Parks Frazier has never coordinated an offense or called plays at any level. And third string-turned-starting QB Sam Ehlinger has a sixth-round draft pedigree, just two starts and a 5.0 AY/A in the NFL. I expect the Colts to be extremely conservative on offense. That means they’ll settle for field position and field goals. Translation: They will be incredibly suboptimal as they “get back to basics.†To that end, I anticipate that the Colts will heavily lean on the running game, especially since No. 1 RB Jonathan Taylor (ankle) returned to practice on Wednesday (albeit limitedly). But here’s the problem: The Colts are terrible running the ball, the Raiders have no reason not to stack the box, and they’re already average at worst against the run. If the Raiders can’t shut down this tragicomedy of an offense and cover the spread, HC Josh McDaniels should be terminated immediately.
– Matthew Freedman
CHI -2.5 vs. DET
Over the last three weeks, Justin Fields has captured lightning in a bottle. The Bears offense is quietly putting up the 5th most points per game and firing on all cylinders. They’re 2-1 against the spread in that time frame, while Detroit is just 1-2. It’s not much, but the Lions have lost the spark that they had at the beginning of the season. Perhaps it’s injuries to Amon-Ra St. Brown or DeAndre Swift, but this team hasn’t been able to put anything together. While Chicago’s defense isn’t capable of stopping even the worst of NFL offenses, I think their offense is good enough to keep the Bears in this game til the end, winning by a field goal.
– Ben Wolbransky
LAC +7 vs. SF
When looking strictly at the QB matchup, Justin Herbert getting seven points versus Jimmy Garoppolo pops out. That said, the Chargers’ injury situation needs to be taken into consideration against a healthy 49ers team off their bye. The Chargers will continue to run their offense through their one healthy playmaker left, Austin Ekeler. Ekeler has 10 TDs over his last five games, and the Chargers are 4-1 in that stretch. They may not be the same explosive offense we are used to seeing, but the Chargers should be able to stay within a TD against the 49ers.
– Dylan Santora
CHI -2.5 vs. DET
Detroit brings one of the league’s worst rushing defenses into this matchup, ranking in the bottom 5 in most meaningful statistics. This will be a massive problem against the Bears, whose combination of Fields, Montgomery and Herbert lead the league in rushing attempts and rank 2nd overall in rushing YPA. Their passing offense has been better of late as well, with both Cole Kmet and Darnell Mooney both finding the end zone last week and Chase Claypool gaining more familiarity with the offense. The Lions are 0-3 in road games this season, with an average losing margin of 17 PPG. I like the Bears to run up and down the field against the Lions, covering this spread with ease in front of their home crowd.
– Austin MacMillan
WAS @ PHI over 43.5
Have we considered there’s a chance Philadelphia scores more than 43.5 points on their own in this one? Ok, so that probably won’t happen, but they’re undeniably a top 3 offense in the NFL, no matter how you split it. They’re scoring nearly 30 points per game. Washington, on the other hand, is scoring 19 points per game with Taylor Heinicke under center, two more than they were with Carson Wentz. Undeniably, this won’t be an offensive shootout, but Philadelphia’s offense is good enough to put up 30 points, and Washington should have no problem scoring 14.
– Ben Wolbransky
DEN @ TEN under 39.0
This line has moved substantially from open and is likely unavailable now. The current total of 36.5 is still enticing in this matchup. In terms of points scored and allowed, the line movement makes sense as this is a matchup of two bottom 10 offenses versus two top 10 defenses. The Broncos have allowed a league-low 164 passing yards per game over the last four weeks, so the key to the game will come down to stopping Derrick Henry. Even with Henry leading the league in rushing yards per game (109), Titans games have averaged a total of 32.75 over the last four games.
– Dylan Santora
DAL @ GB Under 43
Whether it be due to the loss of Davante Adams or the fact that the entire Packers WR corps has been in the infirmary, this is not the same Green Bay offense that we are used to seeing, as the Packers rank 27th in the league in points scored per possession. I don’t foresee this being the week that their offense turns things around, as Dallas boasts one of the elite defenses in the NFL – allowing the 6th least yards per possession, 3rd least points per possession, and sacking opposing QBs more than any other team in the league. The Cowboys run the ball at a top-10 clip, and as underdogs, the Packers will need to turn to their run game to limit possessions and keep this game close. This should be a very run-heavy game script with few explosive plays from either offense, keeping the point total under 43.
– Austin MacMillan
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