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NFL Week 10 Betting Primer: Picks & Player Prop Bets (2024)

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Introducing the Week 10 edition of the NFL Betting primer, proudly brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm thrilled to be your guide as we delve into each game on the NFL slate. Here, you'll find expert insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and enticing player props that could pave the way for impressive single-game parlays.

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 10 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for all remaining Week 10 games on Sunday. Note that the international, Sunday night and Monday night games will be getting their own dedicated articles.

NFL Week 10 Betting Primer

Top Favorites:

  • Chargers -7.5
  • 49ers -6.5
  • Bears -6

Top Underdogs:

  • Broncos +7.5

Top Totals:

  • ATL/NO under 46.5
  • IND/BUF under 46.5
  • MIN/JAC under 43.5
  • PIT/WAS under 45

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

Sides:

  • The Saints have covered the spread in five of their last 11 games.
  • The Saints have covered the spread in seven of their last 11 games as road underdogs.
  • Their opponents have scored first in eight of the Saints' last 12 games against AFC opponents.
  • The Saints have lost their last seven games.
  • The Saints have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five games.
  • The Saints are 2-6 ATS as home underdogs (7-14 on the money line as underdogs)
  • As home underdogs, the Saints are 1-7 straight up. Woof.
  • The Saints are 2-6 ATS as road favorites.
  • The Falcons are 5-3 ATS in their last eight home games as underdogs and 10-5 as home favorites on the money line.
  • The Falcons are 10-14-2 ATS since the start of 2023. They are better at home, finishing at 8-6 straight up.
  • The underdogs have won 11 of the Falcons' last 21 games.
  • The Falcons are 5-5 ATS on the road, 3-4 ATS as road favorites, and 6-12 ATS on the road straight up.
  • The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 12 games as favorites against NFC opponents.
  • The Falcons have won six of their last eight games.
  • Atlanta is 10-5 on the money line as home favorites (15-9 at home overall).
  • The Falcons, as a home favorite, are 6-9 ATS.
  • The Falcons have won seven of their last eight games against teams that held a winning record.

Totals:

  • Seven of the Saints' last 12 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Saints are 3-1 toward the over at home (51.3 points per game).
  • The Saints have the ninth-best red-zone defense in the NFL (50% conversion rate) - but it's been getting worse every week.
  • The Falcons are 4-5 O/U this season.
  • Five of the Falcons' last nine home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Atlanta is 2-1 O/U on the road this season, with games averaging 50.5 points.
  • At home, they are 2-4 O/U, averaging fewer than 46 points per game.
  • Four of the Falcons' last six games have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

As home underdogs, the Saints are 1-7 straight up. The Saints are 2-6 ATS as home underdogs (7-14 on the money line as underdogs) Woof.

It's not a ringing endorsement for a team that just fired their head coach in the typical dead-cat bounce spot.

Case in point, there's usually a reason why New Orleans doesn't perform well as an underdog, even at home: they just aren't any good. The majority of those spreads were in the +2.5-4 range, which is exactly what is presented here in Week 10.

Meanwhile, Atlanta is 3-4 ATS as a road favorite. This season, Atlanta is a perfect 3-0 ATS and straight up in their road contests (twice as favorites).

If this was the normal Dennis Allen-led Saints, I think this would be an easy spot to go back to Atlanta.

But the coach firing is a difficult factor to consider given that we see bad teams rise up after these things happen.

We also saw these teams play in Atlanta not long ago, with New Orleans outgaining the Falcons. But this was a bizarre game because both of the Falcons TDs came on special teams/defense with their only offensive TD coming back on a penalty. So, the counting stats were not there for Atlanta.

Now the Saints team is different than the one that covered 2.5-point spread. Rashid Shaheed is on IR and Chris Olave will miss another game with a concussion.

The Saints have a real issue with their passing game, as they can't move the ball downfield with their current WR setup.

And New Orleans’s defense will have its own issues trying to stop this high-flying Falcons offense.

Keep in mind that they didn't just lose their head coach, they also lost their defensive play caller with Allen getting canned. Cornerback Marson Lattimore was also traded putting this defense in even worse shape.

Given this is a divisional game after a head coach firing, there's bound to be some variance in this matchup. I lean toward the under on the game total at 46.5, given New Orleans' ability to play some inspired football in the post-Allen era.

Note that the Falcons have a -7% pass rate over expectation in the last four weeks. If Atlanta controls this game, they can simply run the ball. They need to be pushed into a more aggressive mindset by the Saints, which I don't think is very likely.

This total closed at 41 back in Week 5 (went over at 50 points).

I'd rather just avoid the sides altogether, given the dead-cat bounce expectation from the Saints playing at home. That being said, I'd take my chances with NO if forced to pick ATS. Terrell Furman likes the Saints +3.5, as discussed on this week's BettingPros Week 10 Best Bets podcast.

Teams are now 17-22 straight up after firing their head coach and 23-16 ATS (59%). Atlanta will likely win, but I'm terrified it will be by just a last-minute field goal, which is exactly what happened the last time these teams faced off.

Props:

Every running back the Falcons have faced has gone OVER their rushing yardage prop this season (70-plus yards in all but one game).

Derek Carr's completion projection is 21 in this game. He has at least 18 completions in his last two games and soared over this number to 28 completions the last time he faced Atlanta. I expect plenty of RB/TE dump-offs with so many WR injuries the Saints are dealing with.

My Picks:

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs

Sides:

  • Rookie QBs are a combined 19-13 ATS this season.
  • The Broncos are 6-7 ATS on the road from 2023 (4-3 ATS last seven road games).
  • They are 8-7-1 as road underdogs (52%).
  • The Broncos have covered the spread in six of their last nine games as home underdogs.
  • The Broncos have covered the spread in five of their last seven games.
  • The Broncos have covered the spread in four of their last five games against the Chiefs.
  • The Chiefs have covered the spread in 10 of their last 14 games.
  • The Chiefs have won each of their last 14 games.
  • The underdogs have covered the spread in 15 of the Chiefs' last 21 games.
  • The Chiefs have won each of their last eight games as underdogs.
  • The Chiefs have covered the spread in six of their last seven road games.
  • The Chiefs are sub-50% ATS at home and ATS in their last 22 home games.

Totals:

  • The Broncos rank eighth in red zone defense.
  • Each of the Broncos’ last five games has gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Broncos’ last 13 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Thirteen of the Broncos’ last 21 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Four of the Broncos' last six road games against NFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Denver is 3-1 O/U at home this season. They are averaging 36.7 points per game.
  • Ten of the Chiefs' last 15 games have gone UNDER the total points line (12 of the last 17).
  • Since the start of 2023, the Chiefs have not allowed a team to score 27 points against them.
  • They are undefeated when they hold teams to 17 points or less.
  • KC is 3-1 toward the over at home this season (47.8 points per game).

Overall:

Bo Nix didn't come through in a tough road matchup against the Ravens, but I didn't feel he was totally overmatched. Despite being intercepted on his first pass attempt, they battled back in the second quarter before being blown out in the second half. The Ravens are no strangers to blowing teams out, and they didn't hold back against the Broncos.

But we know the Chiefs aren't a team that blows teams out. Even after a solid offensive performance last Monday night that came against a bad Buccaneers defense.

The Broncos’ defense still remains a top-notch unit even after they got badly beaten by the Ravens’ offense. And Denver has always been a tough out for Patrick Mahomes among his AFC West division rivals.

The Broncos have covered the spread in four of their last five games against the Chiefs.

Meanwhile, Nix still boasts a strong 4-1 record ATS as an underdog (3-2 straight up) despite being a six-point underdog or more in all contests. Up until last week, the Broncos had not lost a game by more than seven points. Six of the Chiefs’ eight wins this season have been close games.

The Broncos have covered the spread in five of their last seven games.

Denver shows no quit. Give them to me all day against a Chiefs team playing on a short week off overtime that doesn't have the requisite firepower or desire to beat a team by more than a touchdown. The also might be looking ahead to a showdown against the Bills in Week 11.

The Broncos still have the No. 3-ranked defense in terms of EPA/play allowed.

As for the total, it's an under for me. Two strong defenses going head-to-head. In their two matchups last season, the games totaled 33 and 27 points, nowhere near the 42 point total this game is slated for.

Props:

Despite completing a league-high 72 passes to tight ends this season, Patrick Mahomes has generated only +3.9 EPA on such passes (23rd-most in the NFL).

The Broncos have allowed -16.6 EPA on throws targeting tight ends this season (3rd-fewest in the NFL), recording a league-high three interceptions on such passes. Mahomes has thrown a league-leading five interceptions on targets toward tight ends this season.

The Chiefs defense has allowed a league-low 223 rushing yards on runs between the tackles this season, allowing opposing rushers to generate -45 rushing yards over expected on such runs (4th-fewest in the NFL).

The Chiefs have missed just 10.4% of their tackles on inside runs this season, the 2nd-fewest in the NFL.

Courtland Sutton has experienced a rebirth the last two weeks - albeit against the Panthers/Ravens. It's a much tougher matchup this week against the Chiefs, who have allowed the second-fewest yards per game to opposing No. 1 WRs this season (36.7 per game). Sutton has come nowhere close to 4.5 catches in his bad matchups this season, finishing under the number in six of nine games played this season.

My Picks:

Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts

Sides:

  • The Bills have won 13 of their last 16 games.
  • The Bills have covered the spread in six of their last 10 games against AFC opponents.
  • The Buffalo Bills are 17-6 as a favorite since the start of last season and 11-12 ATS.
  • Buffalo has failed to cover the spread in 14 of their last 24 games.
  • The Bills have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last 11 games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Bills have won their last 13 home games against opponents on a losing streak.
  • The Bills are 12-2 and 7-7 ATS at home since the start of 2023.
  • Bills are 7-6- ATS as road favorites.
  • The Bills have won eight of their last nine games against NFC opponents
  • The favorites have won 18 of the Colts' last 21 games.
  • The Colts are 2-1 ATS as favorites this season and 3% ATS as an underdog (2-4 overall).
  • The Colts are 8-1 as favorites since the start of 2023.
  • The Colts have covered the spread in seven of their last nine games.
  • The Colts have covered the spread in six of their last seven games.
  • The Colts have lost five of their last six road games.

Totals:

  • Each of the Bills’ last seven home games has gone OVER the total points line. They are 4-0 toward the over this season.
  • Six of the Bills’ last eight road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Bills’ last 11 games have gone OVER the total points line. (15 of their last 21 road games)
  • Seven of the Bills’ last eight games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Six of the last nine Colts' games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Colts' last 12 games against AFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Only thrice has an Anthony Richardson-led offense scored more than 10 points in the first half (nine starts), with seven or fewer points in four contests.
  • With Richardson at QB this season, the Colts are 1-4 toward the over this season (four straight unders).
  • With Joe Flacco, 2-2 O/U (last two games going under).
  • The Colts are 4-0 toward the under in their last four games.

Overall:

Trap game for the Buffalo Bills? Seems like the market is pricing it in. In Week 11, Buffalo will host the KC Chiefs for AFC supremacy. All they need to do is beat a Joe Flacco-led Colts team on the road after an abysmal performance against the Vikings last Sunday night.

The line is right around four points, depending on what side you want to take.

After initially opening the week heavy on Buffalo, I might be changing my tune. As bad as the Colts’ offense was in Week 9, I think that's still saying much more about the Vikings’ defense.

And when you look at how Miami moved the ball on Buffalo, it was with their rushing attack.

Buffalo's run defense ranks 26th in yards per carry faced this season.

And Buffalo plays down to their competition all the time. The Bills have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last 11 games against teams with a losing record. Meanwhile, the Colts have been great underdogs this season, even if they don't win outright.

Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the Colts have lost each of their last 10 games as moderate underdogs (+3.5 to +7.0 points). This season, they are 5-1 ATS as underdogs in that point spread range from +2 to +5.0 points.

All this team does is play guys tightly. According to Next Gen Stats, the 2024 Colts are the 4th team in NFL history to have each of their first nine games decided by one possession.

The trends also suggest that we might see an under at play here as well. No Bills' road game has exceeded 45 points all season.

If the Colts can run the football effectively, I think they can keep this game much closer. The Colts defense has also gotten better with the return of defensive lineman, DeForest Buckner.

The Colts’ defense has generated a 44.4% pressure rate with Buckner on the field this season, compared to a 30.4% pressure rate with Buckner off the field.

Grover Stewart has generated a 14.8% pressure rate and faced a 41.0% double team rate in weeks with Bucker healthy (Weeks 1,8 and 9), compared to just a 1.9% pressure rate and a 50.5% double team rate with Buckner injured or inactive (Weeks 2-7).

Their defense has also been solid, generating turnovers (7th in takeaways), which should help level the field with the QB discrepancy.

According to Next Gen Stats, the Bills are 7-0 when Josh Allen has had a passer rating above 95.0 this season, and 0-2 when Allen has had a passer rating below 95.0.

The Colts have allowed a 95.0+ passer rating to the opposing starting QB in 7 of 9 games (2-5 record in such games).

Props:

The Bills defense is allowing the most yards, most catches, and most targets to RBs in the passing game this season. Jonathan Taylor has at least three catches in his two games played with Flacco this season. However, his receptions prop has moved up top 3.5 as a result. Therefore, I am going to opt for the over on Taylor's receiving yardage instead given his overall middling usage as a receiver in the Colts offense.

My Picks:

Minnesota Vikings at Jacksonville Jaguars

Sides

  • The Jaguars have lost 12 of their last 15 games.
  • The Jaguars have covered the spread in 13 of their last 18 road games (not in Jacksonville).
  • The Jaguars have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 15 games.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars are 9-5 overall as a favorite, dating back to last season. They are just 2-10 as an underdog since the start of last season.
  • The Jaguars have lost each of their last eight games as underdogs.
  • ATS they are 6-2 as a home underdog and 5-3 on the money line (71%).
  • The Jaguars have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games as home underdogs dating back to last season (although it does depend on the final closing line).
  • In four of the Jaguars’ last five games, the first score has been an opponent Touchdown.
  • The Vikings have failed to cover the spread in four of their last seven games as underdogs.
  • The Vikings have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 14 games. They are 6-2 ATS this season under Sam Darnold.
  • The Vikings are 6-2-2 ATS as road favorites (75%).
  • As home favorites, the Vikings are 10-4 on the money line (69%) but just 6-9 ATS. They have dropped seven of their last eight home games ATS as favorites.
  • All but five of the Vikings’ last 22 games have been decided by eight points or less (78%).
  • The Vikings have won the first quarter in seven of their last eight games.

Totals

  • Seven of the Vikings’ last 12 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Vikings are 5-3 toward the under this season. 3-1 toward the under at home this season, averaging fewer than 41 points per game.
  • Teams averaged over 42 points in Minnesota, 3-7-1 toward the over since the start of the 2023 season.
  • The Vikings are 3-9-1 toward the under in Minnesota since the start of 2023.
  • Seven of the Vikings' last eight games against AFC opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Each of the Jaguars' last five games has gone OVER the total points line.
  • They are 2-1 toward the over at home (53 points per game).
  • Six of the Jaguars’ last seven games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Six of the Jags' last 13 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Jaguars have scored 24-plus points in eight of their last 17 games.
  • Jacksonville scored 30 or more points five times since 2023. Three of those games came against the Colts.

Overall:

It's an interesting matchup here in Week 10 between the Vikings and Jaguars. Although Jacksonville has been "plucky" at times this season against the number as underdogs (70% ATS), it hasn't been nearly as prominent at home, where they haven't benefitted from a value boost in the point spread.

Meanwhile, the Vikings have been a confident bet as road favorites (75% ATS).

And that's why I am firmly packing my bags with the Vikings. They have advantages on offense, defense and between head coaches.

Minnesota has taken care of business against bad teams all season, with their only losses coming against the Lions/Rams.

Even though they tend to keep and play games close, I'll take my chances with them prevailing in this spot in Jacksonville. Minnesota has been great at jumping out to leads, and the Jaguars haven't been able to get off to any hot starts in over a month.

Schematically speaking, I discussed last week my concerns for Sam Darnold against the Colts' heavy zone coverage. That won't be the case against the Jaguars, who run one of the heaviest man coverage units in the NFL.

As for the total, the Jaguars have been over machines. And the Vikings are 2-0 toward the over in their last two road games.

But Minnesota's "overs" have all been against offenses like the healthy Rams, Lions, and Packers. Not sure the Jaguars fall into that bucket of offenses. Trevor Lawrence (unlikely to play) was 4 for 10 for 23 passing yards in the first half against the Eagles last week.

Given that Sam Darnold is always good for one or two bone-headed turnovers, I think this game finishes under 45.5. The Jaguars defense played much better against the Eagles than I thought after re-watching Week 9's matchup. They held their own without much support from their offense.

We also got word Thursday that Lawrence likely won't play in this matchup, putting Mac Jones in position to start. Jones is 0-2 ATS against Brian Flores' defense despite being favorites in both matchups back in 2021.

Props:

Tank Bigsby has forced a missed tackle on 37.6% of his rushes, the 3rd-highest rate among running backs with at least 50 carries (Next Gen Stats).

Bigsby has also accumulated +153 rushing yards over expected, the 6th-most among running backs and the 2nd-most in a season for a Jaguars running back since at least 2018 (Travis Etienne, 2022: +234). The Vikings have the 5th-highest missed tackle rate (14.7%). However, they are one of four teams (Chiefs, Steelers, Ravens) to allow negative rushing yards over expected (-7).

T.J. Hockenson added to the Vikings offense in Week 9 with three receptions for 27 yards on four targets, averaging 9 yards per catch. He had a red-zone target, but it was picked off. He also had seven additional receiving yards wiped away because of a penalty.

In his season debut, Hockenson ran a route on 57.5% of dropbacks accompanied by 27 air yards, 11% air yards share, and a 15% target share.

Expect his role to increase. Buy. The single best matchup for tight ends is coming up for him next against the Jaguars. The Jaguars are 31st in DVOA against TEs this season. Three of the last four tight ends they have faced have caught at least five passes against them.

My Picks:

New England Patriots at Chicago Bears

Sides:

  • The Patriots have lost 11 of their last 12 games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in six of their last eight games.
  • The Patriots have lost nine of their last 11 games.
  • The Patriots, as road underdogs, are 45% ATS (7-9) and sub-50% ATS on the road in their last 20 road contests.
  • In each of the Patriots’ last eight games, their opponents have been the first to 15 points.
  • The Bears have covered the spread in each of their last five games as favorites.
  • Chicago is 6-3-1 ATS as a favorite and 1-0 ATS as a road favorite.
  • The Bears have won each of their last eight home games.
  • The Bears have lost nine of their last 10 road games.
  • The Bears have covered the spread in five of their last eight games.
  • The home team has covered the spread in 11 of the Bears’ last 13 games.
  • The Bears are 9-6-1 ATS and 9-7 straight up in their last 16 games.
  • In each of the Bears’ last eight games, their opponents have scored first.
  • The Bears are 5-11-1 ATS as road underdogs. 5-12-1 ATS on the road.
  • Chicago is 4-0 at home/neutral fields and 0-3 on the road.

Totals:

  • Nine of the last 14 Patriots' games have gone OVER the projected game total.
  • Four of the Patriots' last six games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Patriots' defense has allowed 300-plus yards in seven of nine games this season. They had allowed one team to go for 300 yards from Weeks 9-18 last season.
  • New England is 12-14 toward the under in its last 26 games and 4-5 this season.
  • Eight of the Bears’ last nine games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Bears’ last eight road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Six of the Bears’ last nine games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • They are 9-4-1 under the point total in their last 13 games.
  • Twelve of the Bears’ last 18 games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

What do we know about the Bears? Well, it’s a team that you don’t want to play or bet on when they go on the road. Or when they are underdogs. As a result, we faded them with success last week. This week, the script has flipped with them opening as 6.5-point favorites against the Patriots, fresh off a road loss in overtime.

The Bears have covered the spread in each of their last five games as favorites. And they have played significantly better at home during the Matt Eberflus era. Caleb Williams is 4-0 ATS as a favorite this season.

Per Next Gen Stats, Caleb Williams is 4-0 at home and 0-4 on the road in 2024.

Williams has a 105.1 passer rating at home (4th in NFL among QBs with 3+ starts at home), and a 67.2 passer rating on the road (last among 30 QBs with 3+ starts).

In fact, Williams, Bo Nix, and Jayden Daniels, as favorites this season, are a combined 12-0 ATS.

When these rookie QBs are favored to win, they are delivering.

And I can't think of a better bounce-back spot for Caleb Williams and the Bears offense. The Patriots can't stop the run or generate pressure.

According to Next Gen Stats, the Patriots defense has generated the 6th-lowest pressure rate (29.7%) and 5th-lowest sack rate (5.2%) in the league this season.

Bet on the Bears at home as favorites. Even if the line seems "wide," it's wide for a reason.

As for the total, I'd lean toward the under. The Bears biggest defense is against the deep ball, but New England doesn't have the requisite WRs to win downfield consistently. That being said, Drake Maye will push the ball downfield regardless, but it remains to be seen what success that brings.

The Patriots offense is predicated on Maye's off-script abilities, and that is where the Bears have been their best. No. 1 defense in EPA/attempts on pass attempts over 2.5 seconds.

The Bears also have the third-best red zone defense in the NFL, and the game projects to have some rainy/windy elements.

Ultimately, I think we just see the Bears steamroll New England here, with obvious advantages on offense/defense.

Props:

D.J. Moore has scored at least one touchdown in three of the Bears’ last four games as favorites.

Caleb Williams has not attempted 30 pass attempts at home for the Bears this season. He has also only attempted 30-plus passes three times in eight games played this season.

He has also not attempted 30 passes in any game where the Bears have been favored.

My Picks:

San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sides:

  • The 49ers have won each of their last nine games when playing with a rest advantage.
  • The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 12 home games.
  • The road team has covered the spread in 15 of the 49ers' last 20 games.
  • San Francisco is 14-6 ATS when they score 23-plus points since the start of 2023.
  • The 49ers were the most overrated team at home in 2023 ATS, going 3-7, which was fourth worst in the NFL in 2023.
  • So far, in 2024, they are 3-2 ATS at home. They covered against the Patriots/Jets/Cowboys, not against Arizona/Kansas City.
  • The 49ers have covered the spread thrice in their last 12 home games.
  • The 49ers are 9-9 ATS as road favorites in their last 18 games.
  • The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven games following a win.
  • The Buccaneers have won six of their last 11 games as underdogs.
  • But they are just 3-5 ATS as home underdogs.
  • The Buccaneers have covered the spread in seven of their last 12 games.
  • The Buccaneers have won five of their last seven games following a loss.
  • Tampa Bay is 6-3-1 ATS as a home favorite in their last 10 games.
  • The underdogs have won seven of the last 16 Buccaneers' games.
  • The Buccaneers are 11-3 ATS on the road under Baker Mayfield.
  • The Buccaneers have covered the spread in 10 of their last 15 games as underdogs.
  • Tampa Bay is 3-2 ATS against the NFC South, with the only losses against the Falcons.

Totals:

  • Seven of the 49ers' last 10 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The 49ers are 3-2 toward the over at home, averaging over 46 points per game.
  • Each of the Buccaneers' last six games has gone OVER the total points line.
  • Tampa Bay is 7-2 O/U this season (4-1 at home, averaging nearly 54 points per game).
  • On defense, they have allowed the 5th most points per game (27).
  • Tampa Bay has averaged fewer than 42 points total at home since 2023 (5-8 record toward the over).

Overall:

On a short week coming off a back-breaking overtime loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, Tampa Bay is facing an uphill battle against a well-rested 49ers offense. Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the 49ers have won each of their last nine games when playing with a rest advantage. According to Next Gen Stats, the 49ers are 4-1 in their last five games following a bye week. They have allowed 14.4 PPG following their bye since 2019 (2nd in the NFL)

Tampa Bay failed to cover the spread at home earlier this season against the Atlanta Falcons after playing the Ravens on Monday night the week before.

That brought Tampa Bay's home record as an underdog to 3-5 ATS. Tampa is 0-3 in their last three games as a home underdog.

This has the look and feel of a 49ers' beatdown against a reeling Buccaneers defense.

Todd Bowles' teams have traditionally thrived defensively, but that has not been the case this season.

Per Next Gen Stats, the Buccaneers have emphasized stopping the run under Todd Bowles, ranking in the top 3 of loaded box rate in four straight seasons (2024: 56.4%, 2nd-highest).

Despite their efforts, the Buccaneers have allowed 4.6 yards per carry (5th-most) and +98 rushing yards over expected (2nd) on designed runs when loading the box. The 49ers have faced loaded boxes on 53.6% of plays this season, the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL. They have been successful rushing against loaded boxes, trailing only the Ravens in yards per carry (5.2) and rushing yards over expected (+161).

And when the 49ers elect to throw with Brock Purdy, it's going to be more offensive production.

Purdy has averaged a league-high 11.4 yards per play action pass attempt, though he has used play action on just 19.6% of his dropbacks this season, the 6th-lowest rate in the NFL.

Two-thirds (66.7%) of Purdy's play action passes have traveled past sticks this season, the highest rate in the NFL. The Buccaneers have allowed a league-high 59.7% success rate when defending play action this season. Additionally, 48.5% of their play action passes faced have traveled past the sticks, the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL.

The Next Gen Stats just keep on pouring in folks to back the Niners.

The Buccaneers pass defense has allowed the 2nd-highest success rate (56.3%) when facing condensed formations this season, trailing only the Cardinals (57.8%). The 49ers have used condensed formations at the 2nd-highest rate (60.6%) this season, trailing only the Rams (62.3%).

The Buccaneers have played zone coverage on a league-high 85.7% of opposing dropbacks this season.

The Buccaneers have also allowed a league-high 12 touchdowns when playing zone coverage. Brock Purdy has averaged 9.7 yards per attempt vs zone coverage this season, the 2nd-most in the NFL behind Lamar Jackson (10.2).

The Buccaneers won't have any answers to stopping the Death Star Niners.

Props

Deebo Samuel has scored at least one touchdown in six of his last seven regular season road appearances.

George Kittle has caught 17 of 19 targets for 197 yards and a touchdown when the nearest defender in coverage is a linebacker this season, the 5th-most such yards in the NFL.

The 49ers tight end has gone over 57 receiving yards in four straight games and posted at least 90 receiving yards in the last two games played without Brandon Aiyuk. Buccaneers linebackers have combined to allow the most receptions (52), most yards (671), highest completion percentage (86.1%), and 3rd-most yards per target (9.3) among all linebacking corps when targeted in coverage this season.

The Buccaneers have allowed the third-most receiving yards to tight ends this season.

The BP and NFL Pro projections have Kittle slated from anywhere between 64-69 receiving yards in Week 10.

Jauan Jennings leads the 49ers in yards and target rate per route run against zone coverage this season.

My Picks

Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Commanders

Sides:

  • The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last 15 games. They are 7-1 ATS and straight up in their last eight games
  • The Commanders have lost seven of their last 11 home games.
  • The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last 12 games as favorites.
  • The Commanders have covered the spread in each of their last seven games against teams that held a losing record.
  • The Commanders have covered the spread in each of their last five games as favorites.
  • Pittsburgh is 16-10 ATS since the start of 2023 and is 7-2 this season.
  • The Steelers have won nine of their last 12 games.
  • The Steelers are 13-7 ATS on the road.
  • The Steelers are 6-5 ATS and on the ML on the road since the start of 2023.
  • The Steelers are 7-5 as home favorites ATS.

Totals:

  • Five of the Commanders’ last seven games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Thirteen of the Commanders’ last 17 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, eight of the Commanders' last nine road games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • When Washington doesn't allow 20 points on defense since the start of last season, they are 6-3 toward the under; when they allow at least 20 points on defense, they are 14-3 toward the OVER.
  • The Commanders are 3-1 toward the under at home, averaging 41.5 points per game.
  • The Steelers are 4-4 toward the under this season. 2-2 O/U at home this season.
  • Each of the Steelers’ last three games has gone OVER the total points line.
  • Four of the Steelers' last eight games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Steelers’ last 14 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

To start, I am staying very far away from picking sides here. The spread lined up exactly where my BP projections ended up earlier in the week. If anything, I'd consider the Steelers +3 after it moved away from +2.5. But what do you win if the bet pushes with a field goal victory by the Commanders? A full-game sweat that results in a push. That is not how I like to spend a football Sunday.

Mike Tomlin is too good to confidently bet against as a road underdog. 6-0 straight off a bye week in the last six - Tomlin. Locked in

Instead, I love looking toward the under in this contest.

Because this Commanders defense continues to get better every week. They just added CB Marshon Lattimore into the fold before the trade deadline.

According to Next Gen Stats, Marshon Lattimore has allowed a -12.3% completion percentage over expected as the nearest defender this season, 3rd-lowest among outside CBs that have faced at least 10 targets.

Lattimore has been targeted on just 9.7% of his coverage snaps, the 2nd-lowest among outside CBs with at least 100 coverage snaps.

And at home this year, they have already been lights out.

Third-fewest points per game and No. 1 in fewest yards per game in Washington. No team has scored more than 18 points against them at home this season.

Per Next Gen Stats, after allowing the most yards to deep passes in the NFL last season (1,183), the Commanders have allowed just 233 deep yards this season, the 5th-fewest in the league.

Pittsburgh, meanwhile, we already know how good their defense is. Second-fewest points per game allowed on the road this season. Nine of the Steelers’ last 14 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Avoid the sides, slam the UNDER in Commanders-Steelers.

Props:

Jayden Daniels has thrived in the intermediate passing game, generating the 2nd-most EPA per dropback (+0.79), 2nd-highest completion percentage over expected (+11.3%), and 5th-most yards per attempt (11.7) among qualified quarterbacks on passes between 10 and 19 yards downfield.

The Steelers have allowed the fewest EPA per dropback (-0.36), 2nd-lowest CPOE (-11.4%), and 5th-fewest yards per attempt (7.8) on intermediate pass attempts this season.

The Commanders defense has allowed zero QBs to pass between 200-280 yards this season. It's been either under 200 passing yards or nearly 300-plus (three times).

In their last six games, only one QB has thrown for more than 175 yards against them (Lamar Jackson). Given that I like the game total under, I am betting on Wilson's passing yards projection falling short.

My Picks:

Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers

Sides:

  • The Chargers have won each of their last seven home games against teams that held a losing record.
  • The Chargers are 5-3 ATS this season.
  • The Chargers have scored first in six of their last seven games.
  • The favorites have covered the spread in seven of the Chargers’ last eight games.
  • The Titans have lost six of their last eight games as favorites. They are 3-7 ATS as home favorites (30%).
  • The Titans have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 12 games.
  • The Titans are 6-7 at home since the start of 2023.
  • The Titans have covered the spread in six of their last 12 games at Nissan Stadium.
  • The Titans have lost 14 of their last 16 road games.
  • The Titans have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games.
  • As road underdogs, the Titans are 7-9-1 ATS.

Totals:

  • Nine of the Chargers' last 10 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Nineteen of the Chargers' last 23 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Ten of the Chargers' last 12 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Chargers are 7-1 toward the under this season.
  • The Chargers have faced the fewest red-zone scores per game this season (0.8).
  • The Titans are 14-10-1 toward the under in their last 25 games.

Overall:

It's a telling stat about how well the Chargers have fared against the spread this season while also boasting a nearly flawless record toward the under.

The Chargers defense has been one of the best this season, and they should have no problems slowing down the Titans. I'm not sure it matters whether it's Will Levis or Mason Rudolph starting for Tennessee (editor’s note: Levis is slated to start).

The Bolts’ defense ranks No. 1 in the fewest EPA/play allowed this season. They are also great at limiting explosive passing plays.

According to Next Gen Stats, the Titans have recorded the highest run stuff rate (30.2%) against designed rushes this season, with safety Amani Hooker leading all defensive backs with 11 runs stuffs.

But Chargers RB J.K. Dobbins had had some big gains against stacked boxes this season, averaging over six yards per carry while ranking fourth in rushing over expected per attempt.

The Chargers run defense does the exact opposite, with them utilizing mostly light fronts on their defense. This season, Tony Pollard has the 34th-ranked EPA/rush and 39th success rate against light fronts this season.

I see so many advantages on the Chargers side here that I don't think the spread is large enough if Tennessee is too inept to move the ball offensively. And even if their defense can slow down the Chargers run game, I think Justin Herbert can deliver enough as a passer.

The offense has dialed up a more pass-happy approach since Week 5. They are +4% pass rate over expectation since Week 5.

And per Next Gen Stats, Herbert has recorded a league-high 709 passing yards on downfield (10+ air yards) attempts since the Chargers Week 5 bye, compared to just 145 total passing yards on such attempts prior to the bye.

Herbert has averaged 14.8 yards per attempt on downfield attempts since the bye, compared to just 6.0 prior.

The Titans have been a team that has always been someone to bet against on the road, and I see no reason to avoid that trend in this matchup. Of their four road games played this season, the only win and cover came against the Tyler Huntley-led Miami Dolphins.

And if we get the turnover-machine version of Will Levis at quarterback, it just further backs the play behind the Bolts winning by 7-plus. BettingPros analyst Terrell Furman is very much on the specials teams/defensive TD for the Chargers in this spot at 39 points.

As for the total, continue to bet the under. These two teams’ strengths are in their defenses. Tennessee's defense ranks 8th in EPA/play allowed.

Props

Five of the last seven RBs to face the Chargers have exceeded their rushing projection, with them all hitting at least 64 rushing yards.

The Chargers defense has used zone coverage at the 3rd-highest rate (83.3%) in the NFL this season, including the highest Cover 4 rate (29.5%).

Chig Okonkwo has caught more than 2.5 passes in three of his last four games, but those have come with Mason Rudolph under center. With Will Levis returning to the starting lineup, Okonkwo has gone over 2.5 catches only once this season. Okonkwo saw a boost in playing time last week when Josh Whyle was dealing with an illness. Now 100% healthy, I expect Okonkwo to see a reduced role and less volume against the Chargers.

My Picks:

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys

Sides

  • The road team has won eight of the Cowboys’ last 10 games.
  • The road team has covered the spread in eight of the Cowboys’ last 11 games.
  • Dallas is 4-8 ATS and straight up as a road underdog.
  • The Cowboys have covered the spread in eight of their last 11 games as home underdogs.
  • The overall favorites have covered the spread in 20 of the Cowboys’ last 27 games.
  • Dallas went 8-1 at home in 2023. They have lost three straight home games.
  • They are 3-2 on the road this season and ATS.
  • The underdogs have covered the spread in 11 of the Eagles' last 13 games.
  • The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in 12 of their last 15 games.
  • The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 13games against teams that held a losing record.
  • The Eagles have lost five of their last 10 games as favorites.
  • The Eagles are 4-12-2 ATS when their defense allowed 20 or more points since the start of last season. They covered just three spreads when they allowed 20 points on defense.
  • But at home in their last 22 games – 12-10 ATS as home favorites
  • The Eagles have lost five of their last eight road games.
  • Philadelphia ATS on the road: 6-12-1.

Totals:

  • Seven of the Cowboys’ last 10 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Fourteen of the Cowboys’ last 22 games (67%) have gone OVER the projected total, with their offense firing on all cylinders in the last 13 of 20 games through the air.
  • Games in Dallas have averaged north of 57 points this season (3-0 O/U).
  • Since 2023, Dallas is 9-3 toward the over at home, averaging over 53 points per game.
  • Fourteen of the Cowboys’ last 17 home games have gone OVER the total points line per DraftKings Sportsbook.
  • The Eagles are 13-13 O/U since the start of 2023. But they are 5-10 toward the over on the road.
  • Seven of the Eagles' last nine road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The majority of their shootouts have come at home. The Eagles are 8-3 toward the OVER at home since the start of 2023. They are 1-2 toward the over at home this season (43.5 points per game).

Overall:

Cooper Rush will be making his first for Dallas this week against the Eagles, after they placed Dak Prescott on the short-term IR. Many have cited Rush's stats during a five-game stretch in 2022 where he went 4-1 ATS and straight up. His one blemish came against Nick Sirianni's Eagles.

But his supporting cast was completely different, as Dallas was fresh off a 12-5 season. They had an offensive line, an effective ground game and a strong defense. None of which is true in 2024.

Now I got onto the line early at PHI -6.5, and I don't feel like chasing it up to Eagles -7.5 for fear of a touchdown victory. As bad as Dallas' offense projects with the major downgrade at quarterback, Philly doesn't have the benefit of the doubt to cover these larger spreads against inferior opponents - let alone division rivals.

I think underwhelming performances from both sides lean me closer toward taking the game total under 43.5 points. The Eagles constantly go under the game total when they play away from home, and Dallas' streak of overs seems destined to fall with the loss of their starting QB.

And like I pointed out last week, Eagles covering spreads comes down to their defense, where Sirianni has less of an impact. If they hold teams under 20 points, they are 69% ATS in their last sixteen games.

Dallas has an implied team total of 18 points.

Much has been made about the Eagles’ offense, but the defense is improving. No. 2 defense in the fewest points per game in the last three weeks.

Sure, it's been against Deshaun Watson/Daniel Jones/Trevor Lawrence, and it is not overly impressive. But against Joe Burrow? Now you have my attention (insert eye emojis)

According to Next Gen Stats, the Cowboys have recorded the 3rd-lowest success rate on 1st downs this season (33.8%), their lowest 1st down success rate in the NGS era (since 2016) by over 5.0%.

The Eagles defense has held opposing offenses to a 36.5% success rate on 1st downs this season, 4th-lowest in the NFL. The Eagles have also held offenses to the 8th-lowest explosive play rate on 1st downs (11.3%).

After further review of this matchup, I think I'm coming around more to laying a TD-plus with Philly. They can do whatever they want offensively running the football in this game.

Per Next Gen Stats, the Cowboys have allowed opposing running backs to gain more yards than expected on 38.4% of rushes this season, the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL.

I'm not overthinking this game. Eagles dominate, and the Cowboys' spiral continues.

Props:

No quarterback that Dallas has faced has attempted between 28 and 39 attempts. It’s either been extremely under (five times) OR extremely over (40-plus attempts). Jalen Hurts is under 27.5 pass attempts in four straight games since the team came off their Week 5 bye week.

My Picks:

New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals

Sides:

  • The Jets have lost each of five of their six games.
  • The Jets have failed to cover the spread in 15 of their last 20 games. 3-6 ATS this season
  • The Jets have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games against teams with winning records.
  • In each of the Jets’ last six games, their opponents have scored last.
  • The Jets have lost each of their last four road games against opponents on a winning streak.
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in eight of their last 11 games.
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in four of their last five games.
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in seven of their last eight road games.
  • The Cardinals have lost eight of their last 11 games against AFC opponents.
  • The Cardinals had lost each of their last 12 games following a win before Week 8.
  • Per Next Gen Stats, Arizona didn’t have back-to-back wins in 46 games, with their last winning streak coming in Weeks 11-13, 2021. A new streak has begun, with them winning their last three in a row.

Totals:

  • Fourteen of the Jets’ last 20 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Jets are 3-1-1 toward the over on the road this season. The one under came by one point.
  • The Cardinals have been an under-machine on the road since the start of 2023 (4-7-1).
  • Nine of the Cardinals' last 13 home games have gone OVER the total points line (2-3 O/U) this season, averaging 43 points per game.
  • Nine of the Cardinals' last 11 Sunday home games have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

This has to be one of the most polarizing matchups in Week 10. The Jets opened as slight road underdogs early in the week, just for the lines to flip in Gang Green's favor. New York is now a 2-point road favorite - a spot they have dropped ATS in the last two applicable contests (both games also went over the total).

Early in the week on the BettingPros Lookahead Show for Week 10, I felt strongly the early line value was on the Jets as underdogs. The market reacted accordingly and the value's gone from that side. Therefore, I'm entertaining the idea of taking the Cardinals' side.

The Cardinals' strength is their ground game. Arizona is 5-1 ATS when they rush for at least 100 yards this season.

According to Next Gen Stats, James Conner leads the NFL with 62 missed tackles forced this season, forcing a missed tackle on 37.3% of his touches.

Conner has taken advantage of these missed tackles, gaining an extra 388 yards off them, 2nd-most in the NFL behind only Derrick Henry (455). The Jets have missed 15.6% of their tackles this season, the 3rd-highest missed tackle rate in the NFL. However, the Jets have allowed just 4.5 extra yards per missed tackle this season, 2nd-fewest in the NFL.

I expect them to be able to run the ball effectively at home against the Jets, rushing both from the shotgun formations and with Kyler Murray scrambles. Murray hasn't run the last two weeks, but the Jets have allowed over 50 rushing yards per game to the last two QBs they have faced. Murray has at least 33 rushing yards in six of his last nine home games. He has also had over 27.5 rushing yards in seven of his last ten games as an underdog. hurts

I do think the Jets offense will also have success in this game offensively as well. They are starting to click with all their next pieces and the matchup is divine.

Aaron Rodgers has recorded an average time to throw of 2.56 seconds this season, the 3rd-quickest in the NFL. Rodgers has attempted 21 quick passes targeted to Davante Adams since Week 7, the 2nd-most among QB-receiver duos during that span (12/21, 143 yards, TD). The Cardinals defense has allowed the 5th-most yards per attempt (6.9) and the 2nd-highest success rate (61.5%) on quick passes this season.

Arizona - before they faced the Bears last week - also boasted one of the league's worst pressure rates. Rodgers should have plenty of time to throw.

I'd also expect some big runs in this game from the Jets. Breece Hall has been contacted behind the line of scrimmage on 47.6% of his carries this season, the 9th-highest in the NFL (min. 60 carries).

According to Next Gen Stats, Hall has gained 0 or fewer yards on 25.4% of his carries, the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL. The Cardinals have contacted opposing rushers at the 8th-lowest rate in the NFL this season (33.7%).

With both teams trending in the right direction, I think I'm just going to avoid the sides. I've flipped-flopped on this matchup since Monday and feel better about so many other bets on this week's card.

I think if anything I'd look for the over at 46.5 points. Jets road games have trended toward overs (especially in closer games) while the desert as traditionally played host to shootouts.

Props:

Per Next Gen Stats, Davante Adams has played on 89.8% of offensive snaps since joining the Jets in Week 7, aligning in the slot on 44.2% of his routes, an over 20% increase from his slot usage with both the Raiders and from 2016-2021 with the Packers.

Garrett Wilson has upped his production since the arrival of Davante Adams, averaging 0.9 more yards per route run despite recording a 2.0% lower target rate.

Wilson has also seen more targets downfield, upping his air yard per target by 3.7 yards. Wilson has caught 6 of his 13 targets of 10+ air yards since Week 7, totaling 154 yards and a touchdown (Weeks 1-6: 7 receptions for 121 yards). Wilson has recorded +2.7 receptions over expected (10th-highest) and +75 receiving yards over expected (6th-highest) since the team acquired Adams.

My Picks:

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