NFL Week 10 Early Odds, Best Bets & Trends (2023)

by Austin MacMillan |
Nov 07, 2023

Here is an early look at NFL Week 10 odds and trends:

NFL Week 10 Early Odds & Trends

Panthers @ Bears - Thursday, Nov. 9 - 8:15 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - CHI -3.5; O/U 40.0

Panthers trends:

Previous 10 games: 2-7-1 ATS
Previous 10 games as an underdog: 2-7-1 ATS
Previous 10 road games: 7-3 to the Over
Previous 27 games following a loss: 9-17-1 ATS
Previous 28 non-divisional games: 8-20 ATS

Bears trends:

Previous 10 home games: 3-6-1 ATS; 7-3 to the Over
Previous 20 games: 6-13-1 ATS; 14-6 to the Over
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 7-12-1 ATS
Previous 29 games following a loss: 11-16-2 ATS

Best bet: Over 40.0

Neither one of these teams has been close to profitable ATS over the past few seasons, though both have trended heavily toward the over in spots like these. I'll take the over in a game with a relatively low total that features two of the worst defenses in the NFL.

Colts @ Patriots - Sunday, Nov. 12 (Frankfurt, Germany) - 9:30 a.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - IND -1.0; O/U 43.5

Colts trends:

Previous 20 games: 8-12 ATS; 12-8 to the Over
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 7-13 ATS; 13-7 to the Under
Previous 27 non-divisional games: 16-11 ATS

Patriots trends:

Previous 10 games as an underdog: 1-9 ATS
Previous 20 games: 6-14 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
Previous 27 non-divisional games: 12-14-1 ATS
Previous 30 conference games: 13-16-1 ATS
Mac Jones (Career): 17-25 ATS

Best bet: Colts -1.0

The Gardner Minshew-led Colts have been much better than expected, putting up points and remaining competitive no matter the opponent. This number is too short against a Patriots team that currently holds the worst record in the AFC after an embarrassing home loss to the Commanders.

49ers @ Jaguars - Sunday, Nov. 12 - 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - SF -3.0; O/U 45.0

49ers trends:

Previous 10 games following a BYE: 2-8 ATS; 7-3 to the Under
Previous 13 non-conference games: 5-8 ATS
Previous 20 games: 12-8 ATS; 12-7-1 to the Over
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 13-7 ATS
Brock Purdy (Career): 12-4 ATS

Jaguars trends:

Previous 10 games following a BYE: 6-3-1 ATS; 6-4 to the Over
Previous 10 games: 7-3 ATS
Previous 10 games as an underdog: 7-3 ATS
Previous 10 games as a home underdog: 7-3 ATS; 8-2 to the Under
Previous 12 non-conference games: 3-9 ATS
Previous 20 home games: 14-6 to the Under

Best bet: Jaguars +3.0

Doug Pederson's Jaguars have been great as underdogs in this spot since he took over last season and this 49ers team has been leaking oil lately. No rest advantage is conferred in this matchup, with both teams coming off of their bye week, so I'll take the points with the Jaguars at home.

Titans @ Buccaneers - Sunday, Nov. 12 - 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - TB -1.0; O/U 38.5

Titans trends:

Previous 9 games with rest advantage: 6-3 ATS
Previous 10 road games: 8-2 to the Under
Previous 12 non-conference games: 7-5 ATS
Previous 18 games following a loss: 10-7-1 ATS
Previous 20 games: 15-5 to the Under
Previous 20 games as an underdog: 13-7 to the Under
Mike Vrabel as an underdog (Career): 27-17-1 ATS

Buccaneers trends:

Previous 7 games with rest disadvantage: 5-2 ATS
Previous 12 non-conference games: 5-7 ATS
Previous 17 games following a loss: 5-11-1 ATS
Previous 20 games: 7-12-1 ATS; 13-7 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 7-12-1 ATS; 14-6 to the Under
Todd Bowles (Career): 38-48-5 ATS
Baker Mayfield (Career): 31-46-1 ATS

Best bet: Under 38.5

I don't trust either team to win this game, and despite Mike Vrabel's numbers as an underdog, this game is essentially a pick-em. I'll instead take the under in a spot where both teams have struggled to put up points in recent seasons.

Browns @ Ravens - Sunday, Nov. 12 - 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - BAL -6.0; O/U 38.5

Browns trends:

Previous 10 road games: 3-6-1 ATS
Previous 15 divisional games: 6-9 ATS
Previous 18 games following a win: 4-13-1 ATS
Previous 20 games: 11-7-2 to the Under

Ravens trends:

Previous 10 games: 7-3 ATS
Previous 10 home games: 9-1 to the Under
Previous 20 games: 14-6 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 15-5 to the Under
Previous 24 games following a win: 9-14-1 ATS

Best bet: Browns +6.0

Both teams trend toward the under in these spots, and it seems like AFC North games are almost always decided within a 3.0-point margin. I'll take the points with the Browns as the underdog.

Texans @ Bengals - Sunday, Nov. 12 - 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - CIN -7.0; O/U 46.5

Texans trends:

Previous 10 games as an underdog: 8-2 ATS
Previous 20 games: 12-8 to the Under
Previous 20 road games: 14-6 to the Under
Previous 28 non-divisional games: 11-16-1 ATS

Bengals trends:

Previous 10 home games: 7-2-1 ATS
Previous 20 games: 14-5-1 ATS
Previous 31 games following a win: 21-10 ATS
Previous 33 non-divisional games: 23-9-1 ATS
Previous 33 conference games: 21-12 ATS
Joe Burrow (Career): 36-17-2 ATS

Best bet: Bengals -7.0

The Bengals have completely found their stride offensively and have ripped off wins against the Seahawks, 49ers and Bills in recent weeks. I'll back them as a TD favorite in a tough road spot for the Texans after picking up a huge home win.

Saints @ Vikings - Sunday, Nov. 12 - 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - NO -2.5; O/U 41.0

Saints trends:

Previous 10 road games: 9-1 to the Under
Previous 10 games as a favorite: 1-8-1 ATS; 8-2 to the Under
Previous 19 games following a win: 5-13-1 ATS
Previous 20 games: 7-12-1 ATS; 16-4 to the Under
Previous 28 conference games: 11-16-1 ATS
Dennis Allen as a favorite (Career): 4-12-1 ATS

Vikings trends:

Previous 10 games: 6-3-1 ATS; 8-2 to the Under
Previous 10 games as an underdog: 3-6-1 ATS
Previous 20 games as a home underdog: 13-7 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
Previous 24 games following a win: 10-13-1 ATS

Best bet: Under 41.0

The Vikings have sustained a ridiculous amount of offensive injuries, and the Saints have been one of the most profitable Under teams in the NFL in recent years. I'll take the under in a game where I find the point total to be a little inflated.

Packers @ Steelers - Sunday, Nov. 12 - 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - PIT -3.0; O/U 37.5

Packers trends:

Previous 12 non-conference games: 5-7 ATS
Previous 20 games as an underdog: 13-7 ATS
Previous 20 games as a road underdog: 13-7 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
Previous 23 games following a win: 14-9 ATS
Matt LaFleur as an underdog (Career): 15-7 ATS

Steelers trends:

Previous 10 games as a favorite: 7-3 ATS; 8-2 to the Under
Previous 10 home games: 6-4 ATS; 7-3 to the Under
Previous 12 non-conference games: 5-7 ATS
Previous 20 games: 14-6 ATS; 14-6 to the Under
Mike Tomlin as a favorite (Career): 82-94-2 ATS

Best bet: Packers +3.0

The Packers have been great as underdogs in Matt LaFleur's tenure, while the Steelers tend to play down to their competition as favorites under Mike Tomlin. I'll take the points with the Packers in a game that figures to be lower-scoring.

Lions @ Chargers - Sunday, Nov. 12 - 4:05 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - DET -1.5; O/U 48.5

Lions trends:

Previous 8 games with rest advantage: 6-2 ATS
Previous 10 games following a BYE: 8-2 ATS; 9-1 to the Under
Previous 10 games as a favorite: 8-2 ATS; 6-4 to the Over
Previous 13 non-conference games: 8-5 ATS
Previous 20 games: 15-5 ATS
Previous 20 road games: 13-7 ATS; 12-8 to the Under

Chargers trends:

Previous 10 home games: 6-3-1 to the Under
Previous 13 non-conference games: 8-5 ATS
Previous 20 games: 12-6-2 to the Under
Previous 20 games as an underdog: 12-8 ATS

Best bet: Lions -1.5

The Lions have been covering machines ever since Dan Campbell took over as HC, and they've been especially outstanding following their bye week. I'll take them to cover this short road spread against an up-and-down Chargers team playing on short rest after â€œMonday night Football.â€

Falcons @ Cardinals - Sunday, Nov. 12 - 4:05 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - ATL -1.0; O/U 43.0

Falcons trends:

Previous 10 road games: 3-7 ATS; 8-2 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a road favorite: 7-13 ATS
Previous 20 games: 5-15 ATS; 13-7 to the Under
Previous 29 non-divisional games: 9-19-1 ATS
Previous 30 conference games: 13-17 ATS
Arthur Smith as a favorite (Career): 7-10 ATS

Cardinals trends:

Previous 10 home games: 7-2-1 to the Over
Previous 20 games: 12-7-1 to the Over
Previous 20 games as a home underdog: 11-9 ATS; 12-7-1 to the Over
Previous 28 non-divisional games: 17-11 ATS

Best bet: Cardinals +1.0

Kyler Murray is likely to return at QB for the Cardinals, and the Falcons have absolutely no offensive identity right now. I'll take Arizona at home, as Atlanta doesn't deserve to be a road favorite against any team.

Giants @ Cowboys - Sunday, Nov. 12 - 4:25 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - DAL -16.0; O/U 39.0

Previous 10 games: 3-6-1 ATS; 9-1 to the Under
Previous 20 games as an underdog: 12-7-1 ATS; 15-4-1 to the Under
Previous 20 road games: 13-7 to the Under
Previous 25 games following a loss: 14-11 ATS
Brian Daboll as an underdog (Career): 12-7-1 ATS

Cowboys trends:

Previous 10 home games: 8-2 ATS; 7-3 to the Over
Previous 12 games following a loss: 11-1 ATS
Previous 14 divisional games: 10-4 ATS
Previous 20 games: 13-7 to the Over
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 13-7 ATS
Mike McCarthy as a favorite (Career): 105-72-4 ATS

Best bet: Cowboys -16.0

I'm usually not a fan of laying huge numbers like this. However, most of Brian Daboll's numbers as an underdog were from last year's team, and this is a spot where Dak Prescott and the Cowboys have rolled under Mike McCarthy.

Commanders @ Seahawks - Sunday, Nov. 12 - 4:25 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - SEA -6.0; O/U 45.5

Commanders trends:

Previous 10 road games: 7-3 ATS
Previous 20 games: 12-7-1 to the Under
Previous 20 games as an underdog: 11-6-3 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
Ron Rivera as an underdog (Career): 58-43-2 ATS

Seahawks trends:

Previous 10 games: 7-3 to the Under
Previous 20 home games: 12-8 to the Under
Previous 20 games following a loss: 11-9 ATS
Previous 30 conference games: 13-17 ATS

Best bet: Under 45.5

Despite the perception of Seattle's offense, their games have tended to go under more times than not in recent years. The Commanders profile in nearly the exact same way, so I'll take the under in this one.

Jets @ Raiders - Sunday, Nov. 12 - 8:20 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - NYJ -2.5; O/U 36.5

Jets trends:

Previous 10 road games: 7-3 to the Under
Previous 20 games: 14-6 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 12-8 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a road favorite: 13-7 to the Under

Raiders trends:

Previous 6 games with rest advantage: 1-5 ATS
Previous 10 home games: 7-3 ATS
Previous 20 games: 14-6 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a home underdog: 12-8 ATS; 13-7 to the Over
Previous 30 non-divisional games: 12-18 ATS

Best bet: Jets -2.5

The Raiders had a nice boost on Sunday after parting ways with Josh McDaniels, but that came against a listless Giants team that lost Daniel Jones early in the game. I'll take the Jets to cover this short spread against the Raiders after their emotional win.

Broncos @ Bills - Monday, Nov. 13 - 8:15 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - BUF -7.5; O/U 46.5

Broncos trends:

Previous 7 games with rest advantage: 4-3 ATS
Previous 10 games: 3-6-1 ATS
Previous 10 games following a BYE: 6-4 ATS; 6-4 to the Under
Previous 20 games as an underdog: 13-7 to the Under
Previous 20 road games: 7-12-1 ATS; 13-7 to the Under
Previous 27 non-divisional games: 11-15-1 ATS

Bills trends:

Previous 7 games with rest disadvantage: 5-2 ATS
Previous 12 games following a loss: 6-4-2 ATS
Previous 20 games: 8-12 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 12-8 to the Under
Sean McDermott (Career): 34-28-4 ATS

Best bet: Bills -7.5

Buffalo has made a habit of pounding inferior opponents, especially coming off of losses. This is a get-right spot for Josh Allen and the Bills, who desperately need to find some offensive rhythm to keep pace in the AFC playoff picture.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:

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