NFL Week 10 First Touchdown Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions
Someone must score the first TD of the game, and this article will help you increase your odds of hitting on that player based on matchups and team strengths. It will feature a selection for each game of the Sunday slate. And then here’s a closer look at GAME.
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Seattle Seahawks @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Ken Walker III
Odds: +700 via BetMGM
Last week, Ken Walker did not score until the fourth quarter but still found the end zone twice. He is averaging 5.14 yards per carry this season and will be facing a defensive unit that has allowed 157.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games. The Buccaneers are also good at defending the pass this season, which likely means Seattle runs the ball more. Since Rashaad Penny’s injury, he has only had less than 20 carries once, and it was 18 against the Giants. He will have plenty of opportunities to score first.
Minnesota Vikings @ Buffalo Bills
Dalvin Cook
Odds: +800 via BetMGM
The highest chance for Minnesota to score is via the ground. The Bills have allowed 150 rushing yards per game in their last three games. Josh Allen has also missed practice this week, so Case Keenum could be the starter if Allen is ultimately inactive. The Bills pass-catchers have a good matchup, but without Josh Allen, it is hard to trust them to run smoothly out of the gate. Dalvin Cook has the best value and the highest chance to score first.
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
Jamaal Williams
Odds: +750 via BetMGM
The Lions have allowed the most points this season but fewer first-quarter points than the Bears this season. They also have a good matchup against the Bears defense, which has allowed the most rushing TDs this season. Williams has received at least 10 carries in every game this season, so regardless of D’Andre Swift’s status, Williams will be involved. Last week, he received 24 carries, and Swift only carried the ball twice, with three receptions. It could be a similar gameplan this week, given Swift’s ankle injury. Both teams should be able to run the ball, but predicting who scores from Chicago in a running situation is involved. Williams is the safer bet.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Kansas City Chiefs
Travis Kelce
Odds: +525 via BetRivers Sportsbook
Travis Kelce continues to be the most targeted weapon for Patrick Mahomes, who leads the league in passing yards and TDs. Jacksonville has allowed 10.7 yards per completion this season, so Kelce should find room to operate. He has seven TDs this season but has not scored in three games. He gets the most opportunities on the best passing team in the league, which has a solid matchup. Do not overthink it, and bet Kelce.
Cleveland Browns @ Miami Dolphins
Tyreek Hill
Odds: +750 via BetMGM
Despite leading the league in receiving yards, Tyreek Hill has only found the end zone three times this season. The TDs are bound to come if the targets and yards keep flowing. He receives 31.1% of the team’s targets and averages 11.1 per game. It looks as if Denzel Ward will return to action this week for the Browns, but that should not be a problem for Hill. The Browns are also coming off a bye week, but speed is one thing that is hard to replicate in practice. Hill has the same odds as Raheem Mostert but is far more likely to score first.
Houston Texans @ New York Giants
Daniel Jones
Odds: +800 via BetMGM
The Texans have been bad against the run all season. They allow 180.6 rushing yards per game, which is the highest in the league. Saquon Barkley is probably the most likely player to score, but the odds reflect that. Jones has more value at this price. He is a threat with his legs, with 363 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns this season. In week seven against Jacksonville, Jones had 107 yards on the ground and a TD. He has a decent chance this week and is worth a bet.
New Orleans Saints @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Pat Freiermuth
Odds: +1200 via BetMGM
The Steelers are coming off their bye week and are facing the Saints, who allow 25.2 points per game this season. The Steelers allow 24.6 points per game this season, so neither defense is playing well. The Steelers have had more time to practice and game plan, so they may be able to script together some plays to grab an early lead. This week will also be the first game without Chase Claypool, and his targets will go to someone else. Freiermuth is targeted 6.9 times per game on average but could see a slight increase since he is Pickett’s biggest target now.
Denver Broncos @ Tennessee Titans
Derrick Henry
Odds: +450 via BetMGM
Both teams have a good matchup in this game. The Titans are facing the number one passing defense in the league, but the Broncos allow 122.6 rushing yards per game. It is an ideal matchup for Derrick Henry, who will be looking for his sixth consecutive game with 100 rushing yards. On the other hand, the Broncos are facing a defensive unit that allowed 446 passing yards to Patrick Mahomes. Unfortunately, Russell Wilson has not had time to throw the ball this season. Henry should have the best opportunity to score first, provided the Titans’ pass rush gets to Wilson.
Indianapolis Colts @ Las Vegas Raiders
Michael Pittman Jr.
Odds: +950 via Caesars Sportsbook
It is hard to tell how the Colts’ offense will look on Sunday under interim head coach Jeff Saturday. They fired their head coach and play caller, Frank Reich, so Parks Frazier will call plays for the Colts on Sunday, and it will be his debut. The Colts’ defense has been solid all season, and the offense averages the fewest points per game. The Raiders allow 255.2 passing yards per game, so if the Colts can turn things around under new leadership, Pittman will be the guy most likely to see the targets. If Jonathan Taylor does not play, Pittman is their best offensive weapon and is a great value bet at this price.
Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers
Ezekiel Elliott
Odds: +650 via BetMGM
Following a bye week, the odds favor Tony Pollard significantly more than Elliott to score first. Elliott missed their last game but has had an off week to regain health. He is still practicing in a limited capacity and should be monitored as the week progresses. Elliott and Pollard have a timeshare over the backfield, and Elliott tends to get the runs between the tackles. Green Bay allows 138.6 rushing yards per game, so it is a solid matchup for Dallas. If Elliott is healthy, he provides better value. If Elliott is not active, pivot to Pollard or Prescott, who ran for a TD in his previous game.
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams
Van Jefferson
There is quite a bit of ambiguity surrounding the starting quarterbacks for this game. Kyler Murray has a hamstring injury and was a limited participant in practice Thursday. Matthew Stafford is in concussion protocol and did not practice on Thursday. As a result, the oddsmakers have yet to release any odds. Regarding matchups, the Rams should be able to throw the ball, but their ground game has been nonexistent. The Cardinals will have less success, but the Rams allow 214 passing yards per game, which is seventeenth in the league. It is worth taking a shot in this game, and Jefferson is the perfect play. He got targeted five times in his return to action last week and is always a deep ball threat. Be sure to search for the best available number when the odds are released.
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