NFL Week 10 Line Movement Analysis (2024)
Tracking how lines move throughout an NFL week can provide meaningful information to bettors. In general, lines become more sharp throughout the week as the sportsbook collects more information.
Each game will have its reasoning for movement (e.g., injuries, betting activity, weather, etc.) and varying degrees of impact on the line.
- NFL Player Prop Bets
- NFL PrizePicks Player Predictions
- NFL Consensus Odds
- NFL Expert Game Predictions
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
NFL Week 10 Line Movement Analysis
The table below is intended to summarize the home team spread and total movement for this week’s games to help provide context for any significant movements.
| Home Spread | Total | ||||||
| Away | Home | Open | Current | Diff | Open | Current | Diff |
| NYG | CAR | 4.5 | 6.5 | 2 | 42.5 | 40.5 | -2 |
| MIN | JAX | 4.5 | 4.5 | 0 | 46.5 | 45 | -1.5 |
| NE | CHI | -7 | -6 | -1 | 39.5 | 38.5 | -1 |
| DEN | KC | -9.5 | -8 | -1.5 | 42 | 41.5 | -0.5 |
| PIT | WAS | -2.5 | -2.5 | 0 | 44.5 | 45.5 | 1 |
| ATL | NO | 3 | 4 | 1 | 48 | 46.5 | -1.5 |
| SF | TB | 6.5 | 6 | 0.5 | 48 | 51 | 3 |
| BUF | IND | 4.5 | 4 | 0.5 | 47 | 48 | 1 |
| TEN | LAC | -7.5 | -7.5 | 0 | 38 | 38.5 | 0.5 |
| PHI | DAL | 7 | 7 | 0 | 43 | 43 | 0 |
| NYJ | AZ | -1.5 | 1 | 2.5 | 45 | 46 | 1 |
| DET | HOU | 4.5 | 3.5 | 1 | 48.5 | 49 | 0.5 |
| MIA | LAR | -2.5 | -1 | -1.5 | 50 | 50 | 0 |
(Lines per DraftKings Sportsbook | Line movement via EV Analytics | Open odds as of Monday morning | Current odds as of Thursday evening)
NFL Week 10 Spread Movement Analysis
New York Giants vs. Carolina Panthers: +4.5 -> +6.5
This is the only line on the Week 10 slate where homefield advantage is not baked in given that this game is being played in Munich. Bettors do not seem enamored by Carolina’s second win of the season last week, as this line movement has been non-stop in support of the Giants.
Perhaps it is a good thing for Giants backers that the team is hitting the road, as New York is 0-5 at home for the first time since 1974. Meanwhile, Carolina’s Bryce Young is 0-10 in his career in starts away from home. This line made stops at each half-point increment (5.0, 5.5, 6.0) on the way to 6.5, and while the movement has not suggested any reason the line will not get to the key number of seven, that would likely be the first time we hear from Panthers backers if the line ballooned that high.
Detroit Lions at Houston Texans: +4.5 -> +3.5
These two teams are coming off opposite performances last week, as Houston laid an egg on Thursday night at the Jets amid all its injuries, while the Lions took control of the NFC North race with their third straight win at Lambeau Field for the first time since 1986-88.
The line opened as high as Detroit -4.5 and got all the way down to the key number of -3 before Texans backers pushed it back up to -3.5. That line movement towards the Texans likely had much to do with the fact that they received positive injury news regarding star wide receiver Nico Collins when he passed all tests regarding his hamstring injury. He still has not yet officially been ruled active, but if and when he is, it is likely this line returns to the key number of three at some point.
NFL Week 10 Total Movement Analysis
Minnesota Vikings at Jacksonville Jaguars: 46.5 -> 45
No total has reached as many highs and lows throughout the week than this Vikings-Jaguars matchup. Initially, the total was bet down from 46.5 to 46, then made a steady climb to its week-long high of 47.5. From there, the total got back to its opening number of 46.5, rebounded slightly to 47, and has been a non-stop plummet since to the week-long low of 45.
While rain is projected in the forecast for Sunday morning in Jacksonville, the showers are expected to taper off by kickoff, leaving just win gusts of 10-15 mph. Perhaps the love for the Under comes from the fact that Minnesota and Jacksonville were each shut out in the first half of last week’s games, before rallying to score 21 and 23 points, respectively.
I expect this total to come up slightly from now until Sunday, as the Over is 5-0 in Trevor Lawrence’s last five starts.
San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 48 -> 51
No total in Week 11 has risen as much as this one between the 49ers and Buccaneers. While there has been non-stop support on the Over from an opening number of 48 to 51, the most surprising move was the initial jump straight from 48 to 50. There is optimism that this game will mark the season debut for Christian McCaffrey, who was limited at practice on Wednesday but reportedly felt no pain with regards to his Achilles injury.
The Buccaneers scored 24 points on the road against the Chiefs last week, which were the second-most points Kansas City has allowed this season. Tampa Bay has also lost three games when scoring 26-plus points this season, and has allowed 30 or more in four of the last five weeks.
The Buccaneers are the second-most profitable team to the Over this season (7-2), and the Over has cashed in each of their last six games.
Transform your betting strategy with Automated Line Tracking across all major markets and sports >>
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.