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NFL Week 10 Line Report: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

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Welcome back to my Week 10 NFL Line Report at BettingPros, featuring my custom cost-per-point betting analysis. If you’re unfamiliar with the concept, I encourage you to check out my Week 1 introduction.

Long story short, NFL prices aren’t standardized, so not all points are priced equally. I’m going to run valuations on the DraftKings Sportsbook betting board each week and chart prices to identify which scenarios are advantageous to bet the ML versus ATS (and vice-versa).

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NFL Week 10 Line Report: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

Significant Overnight Line Moves & Notes Since the Open

CLE moved from (+3.5) to (+6) at BAL

Baltimore grabbed the public’s attention last weekend by tossing the Seahawks a beatdown in a statement win. However, has the public push gone too far? For all the momentum heading Baltimore’s way, Cleveland made some major strides themselves, just without the fanfare. Yes, the Ravens hammered their division rival Week 4, but that was without Deshaun Watson. This Browns’ defense is legit; they’re the league’s top dog in plays per game, EPA/play, average drive distance, time of possession per drive, drive success rate, yards before contact per rush, EPA/dropback, completions allowed and passing yards per game. I’ll agree Baltimore should be favored at home this Sunday but I think the pendulum has swung too far. I’d be surprised if the line doesn’t close more toward the open.

NO moved from (-0.5) to (-2.5) at MIN

The legend of Joshua Dobbs pulling off a miracle win only 48 hours after getting air-dropped into a new offense clearly had no effect on the public. Kidding aside, every conceivable arrow’s pointing up for these Saints. The defensive side of the ball continues to hurry opposing QBs and force INTs without having to blitz, carrying New Orleans to early wins. Now Alvin Kamara and Juwan Johnson are back, as Derek Carr’s shoulder is getting healthy, materializing in over 400 yards per game on offense over the last month. The Vikings’ story is nice and all, but I think the fairy tale ends here. I’m expecting public sentiment to follow my own, as this line continues floating toward New Orleans right up to kickoff.

NYJ moved from (-2.5) to (-1) at LV

Bad teams always seem to stir up the most recency bias, which is exactly what I think is happening here. Zach Wilson looked awful again under center in Week 9; that much is hard to argue. However, the Jets just held a very good Chargers team under 200 scrimmage yards and are the best unit in this game by a mile. On the other hand, the Raiders technically dominated in their last contest, but it was against the most inept offense we’ve seen in some time. The Giants’ injury status shot from bad to worse when Daniel Jones tore his ACL, rendering the Giants non-competitive thereafter. In the name of transparency, I am a Jets fan, but I don’t understand this line at all. I’ll be watching closely to see how close it gets to.

NFL Week 10 Cost Analysis-Based Expected Line Moves

BUF should move to (-8) from (-7.5) vs DEN

This line opened at (-8.5) and promptly dropped a full point in response to Patrick Mahomes’ flu, plus the Bills’ loss to the Bengals. However, the result of that Buffalo/Cincinnati game says more to me about Cincinnati and its trajectory than Buffalo itself. At (5-4), Josh Allen will play like a man possessed in a must-have game with potential playoff implications. Also, the fact the spread has barely changed all week tells me the $60 difference in ML cost (the highest on this week’s board) can collapse the line back to -8.0 or more before we kick off.

NFL Week 10 Favorites With Value on the Moneyline vs. ATS

  • NO (-135) at MIN
  • DET (-135) at LAC
  • ATL (-122) at ARI
  • NYJ (-118) at LV
  • TB (-115) vs. TEN

NFL Week 10 Underdogs With Value ATS vs. on the Moneyline

  • MIN (+2.5) vs. NO
  • LAC (+2.5) vs. DET
  • ARI (+1.5) vs. ATL
  • LV (+2.5) vs. NYJ
  • TEN (+2.5) at TB

As usual, our cost-per-point analysis identifies value in games with spreads of three or fewer points. Remember that any (-110) standard price carries an implied probability of 52.4%, another critical part of our calculus. In these examples, betting slight favorites to cover will theoretically save you in terms of total risk, but it’s costing you implied probability. To me, the games themselves are too variant, and the samples of NFL games we deal with are too low to pass on a chance to maximize outcomes.

In plain English, play it safe, and don’t be greedy trying to cover these narrow spreads. We are nearly halfway through the season, and just under 10% of all games this year have been decided by two points or less.

Week 10 Best Bet: NO ML (-135) To Win 1 Unit

Record YTD (2-5-1, -3.50u)

I shared a few thoughts on this game above, so to avoid being redundant, I simply think New Orleans is a much better and more balanced team. The best unit in this contest is easily the Saints’ defense, performing at top-five levels in both levels (67.5% Defensive Rush Success Rate, 57.8% Completion Allowed, 77.2 Opponent Passer Rating). Year-to-date stats don’t do the Saints justice on offense; Derek Carr has eclipsed 300 passing yards in three of the last four games with only two total picks.

On the other hand, the Vikings are on a four-game winning streak and running hot as the sun. I think the magic runs out this weekend. However, rather than risk getting cleaned out on CLV, we can stay with the momentum without paying the premium.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

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