NFL Week 10 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Underdog Bets (2024)
Week 9 was not a good one for the underdogs, with only one winning outright (Carolina) and two others winning against the spread (ATS) - Jacksonville and Miami. With injuries impacting several teams and a few looking like they may finally be ready to make a playoff push, there are several intriguing underdog candidates this week.
Will it be another lackluster week for underdogs? Or will a few of them have their day? Because every dog will have one.
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Best NFL Week 10 Underdog Picks
Detroit Lions (-3.5) vs. Houston Texans (+160)
(Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Detroit opened as the underdog in this game, but not much of one (+0.5 or +1.5, depending on the site you check). But with the Lions clicking on both sides of the ball and coming off their sixth win in a row and Houston getting hit hard with injuries, the public has gotten behind the Lions enough to move the spread to Lions -3.5.
It’s not hard to understand why. Teams have been generating some yards against them of late (400+ yards allowed per game over their last three), but they have only averaged 19 points per game (PPG) over that span. They averaged 100+ yards fewer per game but have done a lot with those yards (35.7 PPG – best in the NFL over the last three weeks).
Houston, on the other hand, is coming off its second loss in three games and has been averaging fewer than 20 PPG the last three weeks. How can the Texans pull off an upset?
It is possible depending on a few different factors:
- Joe Mixon needs to keep running for 100+ yards per game.
- C.J. Stroud has to complete some passes. That’s usually not an issue as he has completed between 63.9%-75% in all but two games - like last week’s dismal 36.7% performance. It will certainly help if they can get Nico Collins back (which is up in the air).
- The defense needs to step up against an excellent Lions offense. It will be more challenging if Will Anderson can’t go (ankle), but the Texans have the second-best defense (281.7 total yards allowed per game) in the league. It will be harder to slow them down without Anderson, but not impossible.
Pick: Texans Moneyline (Pair with another game in a parlay and keep the wager small.)
New York Jets (-3.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals (+106)
(Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook)
This matchup makes for an interesting game. The Jets have been struggling for most of the year, but the offense finally clicked in the second half last week, and they won their third game of the season. Arizona has won four of its last five games, including a win over the 49ers, has a record of 5-4 and leads their division.
But the Jets are favored.
The Cardinals have not been the most consistent on offense, which could be a problem against the Jets’ defense. The question here is whether the Jets offense will play like it did in the second half vs. Houston. Or will it go back to the inconsistent unit it has been all season?
Pick: I don’t trust the Jets’ offense, so I would say go with the plus-money odds for the Cardinals. But keep your wager small and consider pairing it with another game in a parlay (for a better payout).
Pittsburgh Steelers (+130) vs. Washington Commanders (-3)
(Odds via BetMGM)
When the schedule came out, no one had this game circled as must-see TV. Little was expected of the Steelers and even less of the Commanders. Just a few weeks ago, it still wouldn’t have been appointment TV because the Steelers’ offense was struggling hard.
Washington was playing well on both sides of the ball. Pittsburgh, not so much. But then Mike Tomlin inserted Russell Wilson into the lineup. In six games with Justin Fields at quarterback, the offenses finished with fewer than 300 yards four times, over 300 yards twice and over 400 yards once. They averaged just over 20 PPG.
In two games with Wilson at quarterback, the offense recorded 400+ yards in both and averaged 30+ PPG.
The Commanders are the proven concept compared to the Steelers. They are considered one of the better teams in the NFC and a legitimate playoff contender. Pittsburgh looks like one now, but can we trust them? Scoring 37 on a good Jets defense was impressive and the Giants’ defense is not terrible.
Maybe Russell Wilson is back?
This one will come down to who has the better game on defense. Both are allowing around 300 yards of offense a game, but the Steelers are giving up 14.9 PPG to 21 PPG allowed by the Commanders.
I want the Commanders to win because they make for a better story. But as long as Wilson keeps playing well and the defense doesn’t let Jayden Daniels go crazy, Pittsburgh could steal a win here.
Pick: Steelers Moneyline