NFL Week 10 Picks & Predictions: Chiefs vs. Jaguars (2022)
In this article each week, I present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that — as of writing on Wednesday — I’m most likely to enter into the $1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I’ll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update.
I track all of my picks collectively in the BettingPros App and BettingPros Discord.
Week 9 Record
- Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 8-5-1 (+2.5 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 0-0 (used Week 9 as my “skip weekâ€)
Year-to-Date Record
- Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 61-48-2 (+7.21 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 22-18
All odds are from our BettingPros matchups page, where you can see the percentage distributions of spread, over/under and moneyline bets tracked in the BettingPros App.
Week 10 ATS Bet Breakdowns: Chiefs vs. Jaguars
Check out our Jaguars at Chiefs matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 13, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
- TV: CBS
Jaguars at Chiefs: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Chiefs -9.5
- Over/Under: 50.5
- Moneyline: Chiefs -435, Steelers +360
Jaguars at Chiefs: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Nov. 9.
- Spread: Chiefs – 82% bets, 86% money
- Over/Under: Under – 48% bets, 76% money
- Moneyline: Chiefs – 98% bets, 99% money
Jaguars at Chiefs: 2022 ATS & ML Records
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Jaguars ATS & ML Records
- ATS: 3-6 (-36.5% ROI)
- ML: 3-6 (-13.2% ROI)
Chiefs ATS & ML Records
- ATS: 3-5 (-27.8% ROI)
- ML: 6-2 (15.6% ROI)
Jaguars at Chiefs: Notable Trends
- Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence: 8-18 ATS (32.3% ROI for faders)
- Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence: 6-20 ML (35.2% ROI for faders)
Jaguars at Chiefs: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Jaguars Offense vs. Chiefs Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.051 | 10 | 0.037 | 21 | 11 |
| Total SR | 48.0% | 6 | 45.0% | 22 | 16 |
| Total DVOA | 6.6% | 11 | 7.4% | 23 | 12 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.121 | 7 | 0.081 | 19 | 12 |
| Dropback SR | 51.6% | 3 | 46.1% | 18 | 15 |
| Pass DVOA | 20.6% | 9 | 12.8% | 24 | 15 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 4.8% | 4 | 8.3% | 9 | 5 |
| Rush EPA | -0.043 | 18 | -0.054 | 18 | 0 |
| Rush SR | 43.1% | 11 | 42.8% | 20 | 9 |
| Rush DVOA | -1.4% | 18 | -1.8% | 20 | 2 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.16 | 26 | 4.86 | 28 | 2 |
| Yards per Play | 5.7 | 10 | 5.5 | 15 | 5 |
| Points per Game | 22.1 | 18 | 23.6 | 20 | 2 |
Chiefs Offense vs. Jaguars Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.19 | 1 | -0.003 | 15 | 14 |
| Total SR | 48.5% | 5 | 42.7% | 10 | 5 |
| Total DVOA | 22.0% | 1 | 6.3% | 22 | 21 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.282 | 1 | 0.032 | 12 | 11 |
| Dropback SR | 52.5% | 1 | 44.5% | 11 | 10 |
| Pass DVOA | 38.7% | 2 | 15.5% | 27 | 25 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 4.9% | 5 | 4.3% | 31 | 26 |
| Rush EPA | -0.031 | 14 | -0.061 | 13 | -1 |
| Rush SR | 38.8% | 25 | 39.8% | 10 | -15 |
| Rush DVOA | -4.3% | 19 | -5.5% | 14 | -5 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.21 | 25 | 4.06 | 5 | -20 |
| Yards per Play | 6.2 | 3 | 5.4 | 13 | 10 |
| Points per Game | 30.4 | 1 | 19.8 | 10 | 9 |
Jaguars at Chiefs: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 128 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Trevor Lawrence
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.085 | 13 |
| AY/A | 6.6 | 18 |
| QBR | 50.9 | 17 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 0.2 | 15 |
Career: Trevor Lawrence
- AY/A: 5.6
- QB Elo per Game: -34.4
2022: Patrick Mahomes
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.177 | 2 |
| AY/A | 8.3 | 3 |
| QBR | 75.4 | 2 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 5.4 | 1 |
Career: Patrick Mahomes
- AY/A: 8.6
- QB Elo per Game: 120.3
Key Matchup: Chiefs TE Travis Kelce vs. Jaguars Safeties & Linebackers
As I note in my Week 10 fantasy favorites piece, Kelce has either 90 yards or a touchdown in every game but one. He leads all tight ends in targets (77), red-zone targets (16) and plays of 20-plus yards (10, per our Advanced TE Stats Report).
He easily leads the Chiefs in receptions (57), yards receiving (659) and touchdowns (664).
Regardless of matchup, he tends to dominate — and he has an incredible matchup, as the Jaguars are No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA against tight ends (31.5%). On top of that, SS Rayshawn Jenkins (concussion) is in the league’s protocol and missed practice Wednesday.
As for the other Jaguars safeties, Andre Cisco almost never plays in the box, and Andrew Wingard is primarily a special-teamer.
At linebacker, Devin Lloyd and Foyesade Oluokun are utter liabilities. Together, they’ve been targeted 95 times and allowed 807 yards on 78 receptions (per PFF).
Even in triple coverage, Kelce will be open against these defenders.
If the Jaguars can’t contain Kelce, they seem unlikely to limit the Chiefs offense.
Best Line: Chiefs -9.5 (-105, PointsBet)
First Recommended: Chiefs -9.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Chiefs -11.5
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