NFL Week 10 Picks & Predictions: Raiders vs. Colts (2022)
In this article each week, I present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that — as of writing on Wednesday — I’m most likely to enter into the $1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I’ll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update.
I track all of my picks collectively in the BettingPros App and BettingPros Discord.
Week 9 Record
- Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 8-5-1 (+2.5 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 0-0 (used Week 9 as my “skip weekâ€)
Year-to-Date Record
- Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 61-48-2 (+7.21 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 22-18
All odds are from our BettingPros matchups page, where you can see the percentage distributions of spread, over/under and moneyline bets tracked in the BettingPros App.
Week 10 ATS Bet Breakdowns: Raiders vs. Colts
Check out our Colts at Raiders matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 13, 2022, 4:05 pm ET
- Location: Allegiant Stadium
- TV: CBS
Colts at Raiders: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Raiders -6
- Over/Under: 43.5
- Moneyline: Raiders -250, Colts +205
Colts at Raiders: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Nov. 9.
- Spread: Raiders – 65% bets, 85% money
- Over/Under: Under – 79% bets, 97% money
- Moneyline: Colts – 19% bets, 86% money
Colts at Raiders: 2022 ATS & ML Records
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Colts ATS & ML Records
- ATS: 3-6 (-36.6% ROI)
- ML: 3-5-1 (-8.4% ROI)
Raiders ATS & ML Records
- ATS: 3-5 (-27.4% ROI)
- ML: 2-6 (-62.2% ROI)
Colts at Raiders: Notable Trends
- Colts QB Sam Ehlinger: 0-2 ATS (93.1% ROI for faders)
- Colts QB Sam Ehlinger: 0-2 ML (87.8% ROI for faders)
Colts at Raiders: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Colts Offense vs. Raiders Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.148 | 32 | 0.089 | 30 | -2 |
| Total SR | 40.4% | 28 | 48.1% | 29 | 1 |
| Total DVOA | -29.0% | 32 | 15.8% | 32 | 0 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.103 | 29 | 0.233 | 31 | 2 |
| Dropback SR | 43.9% | 23 | 52.2% | 30 | 7 |
| Pass DVOA | -23.6% | 31 | 30.8% | 32 | 1 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 9.5% | 29 | 4.6% | 30 | 1 |
| Rush EPA | -0.242 | 31 | -0.132 | 5 | -26 |
| Rush SR | 33.2% | 31 | 41.7% | 15 | -16 |
| Rush DVOA | -29.8% | 32 | -3.2% | 17 | -15 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 3.86 | 31 | 4.29 | 11 | -20 |
| Yards per Play | 4.8 | 30 | 5.8 | 24 | -6 |
| Points per Game | 14.7 | 32 | 25.1 | 27 | -5 |
Raiders Offense vs. Colts Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.031 | 13 | -0.041 | 9 | -4 |
| Total SR | 43.5% | 19 | 43.7% | 15 | -4 |
| Total DVOA | -0.9% | 18 | -4.7% | 11 | -7 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.082 | 12 | 0.041 | 13 | 1 |
| Dropback SR | 43.6% | 24 | 47.5% | 25 | 1 |
| Pass DVOA | 3.2% | 20 | 7.0% | 17 | -3 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.9% | 15 | 7.7% | 15 | 0 |
| Rush EPA | -0.067 | 23 | -0.146 | 4 | -19 |
| Rush SR | 43.3% | 10 | 38.9% | 8 | -2 |
| Rush DVOA | 5.5% | 9 | -17.8% | 5 | -4 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 5.28 | 1 | 3.75 | 2 | 1 |
| Yards per Play | 5.6 | 12 | 5 | 6 | -6 |
| Points per Game | 22.9 | 14 | 20.3 | 13 | -1 |
Colts at Raiders: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 128 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Sam Ehlinger
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -5.5 | 45 |
Career: Sam Ehlinger
- AY/A: 5.0
- QB Elo per Game: -172.6
2022: Derek Carr
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.084 | 14 |
| AY/A | 6.9 | 15 |
| QBR | 58.6 | 10 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -0.3 | 20 |
Career: Derek Carr
- AY/A: 7.1
- QB Elo per Game: 13.0
Key Matchup: Raiders Rush Defense vs. Colts Rush Offense
For the Colts, interim HC Jeff Saturday has never coached an NFL or college game or served on an NFL or college staff. The Ted Lasso vibes around Saturday and this organization are unreal.
Interim OC Parks Frazier has never coordinated an offense or called plays at any level. And third string-turned-starting QB Sam Ehlinger has a sixth-round draft pedigree, just two starts and a 5.0 AY/A in the NFL.
I expect the Colts to be extremely conservative on offense. That means they’ll settle for field position and field goals.
Translation: They will be incredibly suboptimal as they “get back to basics.â€
To that end, I anticipate that the Colts will heavily lean on the running game, especially since No. 1 RB Jonathan Taylor (ankle) returned to practice on Wednesday (albeit limitedly).
But here’s the problem: The Colts are terrible running the ball, the Raiders have no reason not to stack the box, and they’re already average at worst against the run.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Rush EPA | -0.242 | 31 | -0.132 | 5 | -26 |
| Rush SR | 0.332 | 31 | 0.417 | 15 | -16 |
| Rush DVOA | -0.298 | 32 | -0.032 | 17 | -15 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 3.86 | 31 | 4.29 | 11 | -20 |
If the Raiders can’t shut down this tragicomedy of an offense and cover the spread, HC Josh McDaniels should be terminated immediately.
Best Line: Raiders -5.5 (-115, FanDuel)
First Recommended: Raiders -5.5 (-107)
Personal Projection: Raiders -7.25
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