NFL Week 10 Picks & Predictions: Steelers vs. Saints (2022)
In this article each week, I present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that — as of writing on Wednesday — I’m most likely to enter into the $1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I’ll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update.
I track all of my picks collectively in the BettingPros App and BettingPros Discord.
Week 9 Record
- Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 8-5-1 (+2.5 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 0-0 (used Week 9 as my “skip weekâ€)
Year-to-Date Record
- Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 61-48-2 (+7.21 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 22-18
All odds are from our BettingPros matchups page, where you can see the percentage distributions of spread, over/under and moneyline bets tracked in the BettingPros App.
Week 10 ATS Bet Breakdowns: Steelers vs. Saints
Check out our Saints at Steelers matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 13, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: Acrisure Stadium
- TV: FOX
Saints at Steelers: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Saints -2.5
- Over/Under: 40
- Moneyline: Saints -134, Steelers +118
Saints at Steelers: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Nov. 9.
- Spread: Saints – 38% bets, 51% money
- Over/Under: Under – 72% bets, 96% money
- Moneyline: Saints – 83% bets, 96% money
Saints at Steelers: 2022 ATS & ML Records
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Saints ATS & ML Records
- ATS: 3-6 (-36.2% ROI)
- ML: 3-6 (-45.7% ROI)
Steelers ATS & ML Records
- ATS: 3-4-1 (-15.2% ROI)
- ML: 2-6 (3.1% ROI)
Saints at Steelers: Notable Trends
- Steelers HC Mike Tomlin: 64-56-4 ATS (4.6% ROI) at home
- Steelers HC Mike Tomlin: 48-26-3 ATS (26.0% ROI) as underdog
- Steelers HC Mike Tomlin: 15-3-3 ATS (53.4% ROI) as home underdog
Saints at Steelers: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Saints Offense vs. Steelers Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.005 | 16 | 0.074 | 26 | 10 |
| Total SR | 48.8% | 3 | 44.9% | 20 | 17 |
| Total DVOA | -4.7% | 21 | 3.2% | 20 | -1 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.025 | 17 | 0.118 | 27 | 10 |
| Dropback SR | 49.9% | 7 | 47.1% | 23 | 16 |
| Pass DVOA | -2.7% | 24 | 10.9% | 21 | -3 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.2% | 11 | 5.6% | 22 | 11 |
| Rush EPA | -0.026 | 12 | -0.001 | 24 | 12 |
| Rush SR | 47.2% | 3 | 41.1% | 12 | 9 |
| Rush DVOA | 7.0% | 6 | -7.9% | 11 | 5 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.90 | 4 | 4.34 | 13 | 9 |
| Yards per Play | 5.9 | 6 | 5.9 | 28 | 22 |
| Points per Game | 23.6 | 11 | 24.6 | 23 | 12 |
Steelers Offense vs. Saints Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.081 | 28 | 0.007 | 16 | -12 |
| Total SR | 41.7% | 25 | 43.0% | 12 | -13 |
| Total DVOA | -10.6% | 24 | -0.7% | 16 | -8 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.109 | 30 | 0.089 | 22 | -8 |
| Dropback SR | 42.9% | 26 | 45.3% | 13 | -13 |
| Pass DVOA | -0.5% | 22 | 2.3% | 12 | -10 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.3% | 12 | 7.3% | 17 | 5 |
| Rush EPA | -0.023 | 11 | -0.111 | 6 | -5 |
| Rush SR | 39.3% | 22 | 39.7% | 9 | -13 |
| Rush DVOA | -18.1% | 28 | -4.4% | 16 | -12 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.22 | 24 | 4.48 | 16 | -8 |
| Yards per Play | 4.7 | 31 | 5.3 | 10 | -21 |
| Points per Game | 15 | 31 | 25.2 | 28 | -3 |
Saints at Steelers: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 128 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Andy Dalton
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.098 | 10 |
| AY/A | 7.2 | 11 |
| QBR | 49.7 | 19 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -1.1 | 27 |
Career: Andy Dalton
- AY/A: 6.7
- QB Elo per Game: -6.6
2022: Kenny Pickett
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| AY/A | 3.9 | 35 |
| QBR | 36.7 | 26 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -1.7 | 35 |
Career: Kenny Pickett
- AY/A: 3.9
- QB Elo per Game: -41.5
Key Matchup: Steelers Defensive Line vs. Saints Offensive Line
Coming out of the Week 9 bye, the Steelers are “optimistic†that All-Pro EDGE T.J. Watt (pectoral, IR) will return for this matchup.
With Watt on the perimeter and DTs Cameron Heyward and Larry Ogunjobi on the interior, the Steelers have a top-eight defensive line, while the Saints might be without the entire left side of their offensive line: LT Trevor Penning (foot, IR) is out, LG Andrus Peat (tricep) missed practice on Wednesday with a new injury and C Erik McCoy (calf) exited Week 9 early.
If the Saints are unable to win in the offensive trenches, they will likely struggle passing and running.
Best Line: Steelers +2.5 (-110, Caesars)
First Recommended: Steelers +2.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Steelers +0.75
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