NFL Week 10 Picks: Sleepers & Longshot Bets (2024)
Last week, Alvin Kamara ran for 155 yards giving us a nice +500 winner. This week, I continue to fade the Carolina Panthers' run defense, as they take on Tyrone Tracy Jr. and the New York Giants. I also look at Jared Goff's matchup with the Houston Texans and try to predict Sunday’s highest-scoring game.
Here are the best longshot bets for Week 10 of the NFL season.
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Best NFL Week 10 Longshot Bets
(Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jared Goff 3+ Passing Touchdowns (+425)
Since struggling through the first three weeks of the season, Jared Goff has been absolutely incredible in his last five contests. He's completed over 80% of his passes in four of those five games and has thrown 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions during that span. In two of his last four games, he's thrown three touchdown passes. In five of his last six, he's thrown at least two.
This week, Goff gets to take on a defense allowing 2.1 passing touchdowns per game this season. Only the Baltimore Ravens are worse. David Montgomery or Jahmyr Gibbs could end up stealing touchdowns from him, but those two backs have combined for 10 rushing touchdowns over the last five weeks, and Goff has still put up incredible numbers.
With how this game could play out, it may even be worth taking Goff to throw four or more touchdown passes. That number is set at +1400 right now.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: Highest Scoring Game on Sunday (+650)
While the Jaguars rank just 18th in average points per game this season, the Vikings rank eighth. The Vikings are averaging 26.1 points per game. The Jaguars are averaging 21.7. While the Jaguars may struggle a bit in this game against the seventh-best scoring defense in the league, they're allowing 28 points per game, which ranks 30th in the NFL.
The Jaguars are allowing 2.1 passing touchdowns per game, which plays right into the strengths of the Vikings. Sam Darnold is tied for fourth in the league with 17 touchdown passes, and he's thrown multiple in each of his last two games.
The Vikings haven't scored more than 30 points since Week 4, but that's all going to change in this matchup. The Jaguars have allowed at least 28 points in four of their last five games. When the Jaguars fall behind, they'll do what they've done all year - score plenty of garbage-time points to make the game look more competitive than it ever really was.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. 120+ Rushing Yards (+400)
Fade the Panthers' run defense. Last week, I did just that, and Alvin Kamara ended up hitting a big winner for us. The Panthers are allowing 159.3 rushing yards per game, which is by far the worst number in the league. With what they allowed last week, even in a win, why wouldn't I go against them again?
Tracy has run for over 120 yards in two games this season. One of those performances came two weeks ago when he rushed for 145 yards in a loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. He's averaging 5.0 yards per carry, the key is just getting him the football. The Giants have lost four games in a row, so they've struggled to get him the ball at times. But against arguably the worst team in football, it's hard to imagine the Giants getting blown out. That means Tracy will get plenty of carries, which he will make the most of against this defense.
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.