NFL Week 10 Touchdown Scorer Odds & Picks: Colts vs. Patriots (Germany)
Sunday morning will bring us a special matchup between the Indianapolis Colts and the New England Patriots in Frankfurt, Germany. Millions of dollars will be bet on this game. But which touchdown prop bets should you make? Let’s take a look.
Colts vs. Patriots TD Scorer Prop Best Bets
All props are from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Indianapolis Colts First TD Scorer: Michael Pittman Jr. (+450)
While many thought Pittman would struggle this year with the lack of a proven quarterback on the roster, the former USC star has played well. He has three receiving touchdowns this season, a team-high. Furthermore, the veteran wide receiver is only one away from matching his total in 2022. More importantly, the Colts have leaned on the passing attack early in games. Over the past seven weeks, the first Indianapolis touchdown has been a passing score six times, including in four straight contests.
Two weeks ago, Pittman had the first Colts touchdown against the New Orleans Saints, scoring from 10 yards away. Meanwhile, the Patriots have struggled to slow down opposing passing attacks. They have given up 10 receiving touchdowns to wide receivers this year, the fourth-most in the NFL. More importantly, four of the 10 receiving touchdowns surrendered by New England were the first score of the game for their opponents.
New England Patriots First TD Scorer: Ezekiel Elliott (+475)
No one should be surprised if the Patriots don’t score a touchdown in this game. They didn’t score a touchdown in two of their past six contests. At 11-1 odds, more aggressive bettors should seriously consider the bet. However, I’m going with Elliott. The veteran running back has two rushing touchdowns this season, and both were New England’s first touchdown of the game. Furthermore, he scored both touchdowns over the past four weeks.
The Colts’ run defense may been impressive in previous years, but they have unfortunately struggled this year. Furthermore, their run defense has been awful since losing defensive tackle Grover Stewart to a suspension. The Colts have surrendered 11 rushing touchdowns to running backs this season, the most in the NFL entering Week 10. They have given up six rushing touchdowns to the position over the past four weeks, the most in the league.
Anytime TD Scorer: Jonathan Taylor (-120)
After missing the first four games this season, Taylor has turned back into a superstar. The former Wisconsin stud is fourth on the team in rushing touchdowns (one) behind Zack Moss (five), Anthony Richardson (four), and Gardner Minshew (two). However, his workload has expanded lately. The superstar running back has made at least 12 rushing attempts in three consecutive games. More importantly, Taylor had 18 rushing attempts and at least three receptions in two of those contests. He found the end zone in both games, including last week against the Carolina Panthers.
Meanwhile, the Patriots have surrendered seven rushing touchdowns to running backs this season, the eighth-most in the NFL. Their run defense has been solid, but they haven’t been able to keep running backs out of the end zone. Since Week 1, New England has given up at least one rushing touchdown to running backs in all but two games, including two consecutive contests. Taylor is the focal point of the Colts’ offense. He should have at least 18 rushing attempts in the game and find the end zone.
Anytime TD Scorer: Hunter Henry (+310)
Unfortunately, the Patriots have dealt with injuries to their receiving core all season. DeVante Parker missed last week’s game with a concussion, and Kendrick Bourne is out for the year with a torn ACL. Therefore, more of the receiving game work has fallen on Henry’s shoulders. The veteran tight end is second on the team in receiving touchdowns and total scores with three, only one behind Bourne. Last week, Henry found the end zone and had the third-most targets on the team with six.
Indianapolis has surrendered only one receiving touchdown to tight ends this season, the second-fewest in the NFL. That touchdown came back in Week 6 against the Jacksonville Jaguars when Brenton Strange scored from 10 yards away. However, the Colts have struggled to defend tight ends. Opposing teams have targeted their tight ends 78 times this year against Indianapolis, the most in the NFL. More importantly, Henry was the only Patriots player to see a red zone target last week in the team’s first game without Bourne, per Fantasy Points Data.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:
- NFL Week 10 PrizePicks Player Predictions
- Erickson’s NFL Week 10 Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions
- NBA First Basket Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions
- NBA Player Prop Bet Odds, Pick & Predictions
- Top NHL Odds, Picks & Predictions
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.