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NFL Week 11 Anytime TD Scorer Picks & Predictions (2024)

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I got back on track last week. Sort of. I went 6-5 on Anytime Touchdown (ATD) bets. However, most of that profit went out the window when only one of my First Touchdown (FTD) bets came in. Still, it was nice to get back in the black. This week I am back with picks for all 11 of the games on the Week 11 Sunday slate, excluding Sunday Night Football.

As a reminder, I am tracking these using bet sizes of 0.4 units on anytime touchdown bets and 0.1 units on first touchdown bets. Whether you play one or all of them, use your discretion and adjust as you see fit. 

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Best NFL Week 11 Anytime TD Scorer Prop Bets

All wagers are 0.5 units

NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets

Who will score a touchdown in this week's NFL Games? The Anytime Touchdown market covers any player who carries or receives the ball into the end zone, not the quarterback who passes the ball. We compare anytime touchdown stats to prop bet odds and projections to help identify today's best bets. View Anytime Touchdown odds across sportsbooks here.

Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets

Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND)

My best hit last week was Kyler Murray. He went off at +250 to score a touchdown. He ended up scoring twice. The New York Jets have now allowed five rushing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks in the last five weeks. Because of that, I am quite tempted to take Anthony Richardson here.

The Colts have re-inserted Richardson into the starting lineup. Given his pedigree and rushing ability, he can certainly score in this matchup. He is going off at +215 (Anytime Touchdown)/+1100 (First Touchdown) on DraftKings Sportsbook for those interested.

However, I am going to pick Jonathan Taylor in this game. While New York has allowed five touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks in their last five games, they have also given up six to enemy running backs. Taylor has five scores in seven games, so this is a pretty good price all things considered.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

George Pickens (WR – PIT)

It has been several weeks since sportsbooks have posted anytime touchdown and first touchdown lines for Ravens running back Derrick Henry at prices I have been willing to pay. FanDuel Sportsbook has the best pricing on King Henry this week - -175 (Anytime Touchdown)/+420 (First Touchdown). Those prices are tempting considering he has scored in every game this season.

Pittsburgh is an above-average defense, but they have given up eight total touchdowns to opposing backs this year. But I am going to take a different path and go with George Pickens in this game.

Pickens has thrived in three games since Pittsburgh installed Russell Wilson as its starting quarterback. The third-year wide receiver has at least 74 yards in all three games. It is the first time in his career he has posted three consecutive games with 70+ receiving yards.

Pickens has also scored twice in three games with Wilson at the helm. The veteran quarterback is allowing Pickens to make plays down the field, and Pickens has obliged. This week, Pickens gets a fantastic matchup. The Ravens have allowed the most receiving yards and most touchdowns to wide receivers this year. Given his recent form and Baltimore's struggles defensively, I think Pickens is a better value this week than Derrick Henry.

Minnesota Vikings at Tennessee Titans

Aaron Jones (RB – MIN)

Minnesota Vikings running back Aaron Jones has failed to find the end zone in three consecutive games. However, he is still getting a ton of volume and providing solid production. Jones has earned at least 20 opportunities (carries plus targets) in all three contests. He has also averaged 92.7 scrimmage yards in those three games.

That workload should result in some positive regression in the touchdown department when the Vikings travel to take on the Tennessee Titans. Tennessee has been abused by opposing running backs recently. The Titans have allowed eight total touchdowns to opposing running backs in their last four games. I think Jones makes for a solid anytime touchdown and first touchdown bet in this game.

Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints

Taysom Hill (TE – NO)

Taysom Hill has three total touchdowns in his last four games. He very easily could have scored more. Hill had an 88-yard touchdown catch that was called back due to a penalty last week. Hill was hobbled by injuries earlier in the year but has played in three straight games. In those games, the Saints have given Hill three carries inside their opponents' 10-yard line.

Primary running back Alvin Kamara has only had two such carries in that span. Kamara's best anytime touchdown price is -135, while Hill sits at +187. I think the odds are Hill and Kamara should be much closer, which is why I prefer Hill in this spot. If you want to play the other side, Nick Chubb is a solid option. Bet365 has Chubb at +100 for an anytime touchdown, while DraftKings Sportsbook has his first touchdown price at +650.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions

Jameson Williams (WR – DET)

With an implied total of just over 30 points this week, there is no shortage of anytime-touchdown options and first-touchdown candidates for the Detroit Lions. Detroit is a two-touchdown favorite in Week 11 against the Jacksonville Jaguars. That is the largest point spread of the 2024 NFL season.

If you want a chalkier pick, you can go with running backs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. I certainly would not fault anyone who wanted to bet on any of those players. However, I lean towards Jameson Williams in this matchup.

Jacksonville ranks dead last in the NFL in both expected points added (EPA) and DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) defensively against the pass. That may signal a move toward Detroit's top wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown. But interestingly enough, the Jaguars rank third in the league in DVOA against No. 1 WRs. They also play man coverage at a high rate, and slot cornerback Jarrian Jones is the team's best cornerback. Both of those tendencies could work against St. Brown.

The Lions will be missing tight end Sam LaPorta in this game. That should open up more opportunities for Williams to operate. Look for Detroit to get Williams matched up against Ronald Darby. Darby has a reputation as a gambler and has given up four touchdowns this year. I love the value we are getting on Williams from both an anytime touchdown and first touchdown standpoint this week.

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

Josh Jacobs (RB – GB)

Much has been made in recent weeks about the recent offensive struggles of the Chicago Bears. But that is not the only reason to pivot to the Packers here. It is Chicago's defense that is the primary reason why Josh Jacobs is one of my favorite Week 11 anytime touchdown and first touchdown picks.

Chicago has been a run funnel for most of the year. The Bears are sixth in DVOA against the pass, but just 30th versus the run. They have allowed an NFL-low six passing touchdowns the entire year.

Meanwhile, they have given up eight rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs. Considering Chicago's stout pass defense and quarterback Jordan Love's turnover issues, Green Bay would be best served to feature Jacobs down by the goal line. Expect Josh Jacobs to score at least one touchdown in this game.

Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins

Jonnu Smith (TE – MIA)

In their last game, the Las Vegas Raiders served up three touchdowns to Cincinnati Bengals tight ends. That performance may be something of an anomaly. But Las Vegas enters their Week 11 meeting with the Miami Dolphins ranking 29th in DVOA versus tight ends this year. Dolphins tight end Jonnu Smith only has one touchdown thus far in 2024. But he has played a featured role in the passing game.

Smith’s season-long totals (33 receptions, 44 targets, 347 yards, one touchdown) are eerily similar to those of wide receiver Jaylen Waddle (31-44-367-1). Yet Waddle's anytime touchdown price ranges anywhere from +150 on BetMGM to +190 at Caesars Sportsbook. Meanwhile, we are getting Smith at +300. I will gladly take the chance that Miami gets Smith involved in scoring territory.

Los Angeles Rams at New England Patriots

Puka Nacua (WR – LAR)

For me, Rams running back Kyren Williams is in the Christian McCaffrey/Derrick Henry/Saquon Barkley category concerning anytime touchdown and first touchdown bets. His best anytime touchdown price is -185 at Caesars. If you want to play that, I will not talk you out of it. But that is just too high for me, even in a solid Week 11 matchup with the New England Patriots.

Instead, I am going with Puka Nacua in this game. The Patriots rank 30th in DVOA versus the pass this year. They also play man coverage at the second-highest rate in the NFL. The Rams feature a ton of 3-WR sets. That should enable them to exploit favorable matchups with Nacua, Cooper Kupp and Demarcus Robinson. Robinson - +400 (Anytime Touchdown)/+1900 (First Touchdown) at DraftKings Sportsbook - is worth a speculative play if you want a longer shot. However, I am sticking with Nacua in this game.

Atlanta Falcons at Denver Broncos

Courtland Sutton (WR – DEN)

This is an interesting matchup because it features strength against strength and weakness against weakness. The Atlanta Falcons have a top-10 offense in both passing and rushing based on DVOA. They face a Denver Broncos defense that also ranks in the top 10 versus both the pass and run. Meanwhile, Denver's offense and Atlanta's defense are both below league average in each respective category. That leaves a bit of ambiguity concerning the anytime touchdown and first touchdown bets in this game.

I am going to go with Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton as my pick. The Falcons have allowed 12 receiving touchdowns to opposing wideouts this year. Only Baltimore and Houston have allowed more. Sutton has earned 30 total targets across Denver's last three games. He should get enough opportunities to take advantage of a weak Atlanta pass defense in the red zone.

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers

Kenneth Walker (RB – SEA)

Seven different players scored when the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks met last month. One of those players was Seattle running back Kenneth Walker. Walker has now scored seven total touchdowns in as many games this year. Last week was the first game in which Walker logged at least 10 carries and failed to score a touchdown.

The 49ers are a bit of a run funnel defensively, which could work in Walker’s favor this week. San Francisco ranks second in defensive DVOA against the pass but 20th versus the run. They have given up 10 total touchdowns to the running back position. That ranks in the bottom 10 in the NFL. As long as Seattle does not fall too far behind early, Walker should get a normal workload. That should enable him to find paydirt at least once in this game.

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills

Travis Kelce (TE – KC)

One of Week 11's marquee matchups pits the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs against the Buffalo Bills. Once again, there are several directions I can go with this game's anytime touchdown and first touchdown bets. But this is another instance in which I am going to ride the hot hand, especially when it comes to volume.

Travis Kelce has seen a massive uptick in targets over the past three weeks. He has earned a whopping 40 targets in that span. Six of those have come inside the opponents' 10-yard line, leading to two touchdowns. Buffalo has been slightly above average at defending tight ends this season. But I will happily take Kelce considering the amount of volume he has been receiving of late.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

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