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NFL Week 11 Composite Power Ratings (2023)

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Each week, I compile power ratings from a bevy of respected sources across the NFL handicapping community. Power ratings are designed to identify how many points a team would be favored by against an average team on a neutral field. By calculating the difference in ratings between the two teams (and adjusting for home-field advantage), you can get a ratings-implied spread to compare to the actual spread. In the second section, I’ve done that while assuming a value of 1.5 points for home-field advantage and using the composite spread from all the sources. Additionally, I’ve provided some comments on trends and numbers that stood out to me.

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    Week 11 NFL Composite Power Ratings

    • Since I last wrote this article, I have changed some of the sources that I do and don’t use for the composite ratings. It was clear that some sources were not properly (or at all) accounting for major injuries, specifically to quarterbacks who are out for the season. Along those same lines, on Wednesday it was announced that Deshaun Watson would be out for the season with a shoulder injury that he suffered in Sunday’s win against the Ravens. This makes Cleveland’s rating a bit ambiguous as these sources account for his absence in different ways. So, when evaluating Cleveland’s rating (like you’ll see below) or using it for analysis, take it with a major grain of salt.

    Week 11 Matchups

    • On Monday Night Football this week, the Denver Broncos upset the Buffalo Bills in stunning fashion. One key driver of Denver’s recent success is the performance they’ve gotten from their defense. After allowing an atrocious 36.2 points per game through the first five weeks (obviously inflated by the 70 points they allowed to Miami) and a league-worst 0.225 EPA per play, Denver hasn’t allowed more than 22 points in a single game and their -0.056 EPA per play allowed ranks 10th overall. They’ll now face a Minnesota Vikings team that the ratings show some value on as they are riding a five-game winning streak despite losing Kirk Cousins to a season-ending injury two weeks ago. Both Minnesota’s offense and defense have improved from where they were to start the season, so this should be a fun primetime matchup!
    • The ratings have three massive underdogs — the New York Giants, the Las Vegas Raiders, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers — as showing some value this week. If I were to make a bet on one of them, it would be the Buccaneers. While San Francisco looked like the cream of the crop once again with a dominating win over Jacksonville, Baker Mayfield is playing some of the best football of his career and has been able to perform well when pressured. Not to mention, Tampa Bay’s defense hasn’t been as much of a pushover this year.

    Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

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