NFL Week 11 Early Lines vs. Line Movement Predictions (2022)

by Phil Wood |
Nov 14, 2022

Week 10 saw some of the craziest finishes of the season. The Minnesota Vikings managed to upset the Buffalo Bills thanks largely to a fumble recovery touchdown, the Green Bay Packers erased a 14-point fourth-quarter deficit to defeat the Cowboys, and Matt Ryan led a fourth-quarter game-winning game drive to give interim head coach Jeff Saturday a win in Las Vegas. The Vikings, Bills, and Colts were three of six underdogs to win straight up in Week 10, yet only one underdog covered ATS without winning their game.

Here is a look at some early Week 11 lines and where you should expect them to move.

Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers

Christian Watson made his presence known on Sunday, as the rookie wide receiver hauled in three touchdowns to help the Packers pull off a miraculous come-from-behind win over Dallas. At 4-6, the Packers are very much alive in the NFC playoff hunt, and bettors seem to like their chances of inching closer to .500.

They opened as 2.5-point favorites over the 6-3 Titans, but that line has already moved to three at some of the major sportsbooks. This one could keep going through the key number but expect things to level off as kickoff approaches.

You may see the Packers favored by 3.5 at some point this week, but expect late money to push the line back significantly in favor of the Titans, especially with Ryan Tannehill back under center.

Current Line: Packers -2.5

Predicted Final Line: Packers -2

Detroit Lions at New York Giants

About to play in their 10th game of the season, the 7-2 Giants find themselves favored for just the fourth time this year. They have covered in two of their previous three as favorites, including last week against the Texans.

Meanwhile, the Lions have won straight up twice in a row as underdogs against division rivals. Their most recent ATS win moves the Lions to 5-4 against the spread on the season.

All seven of the Giants' wins have been by eight points or less. The Lions have been scrappy of late as they attempt to save their season. Look for the line to move through the key number in favor of the Lions as the Giants look ahead to four consecutive division games.

Current Line: Giants -3.5

Predicted Final Line: Giants -2.5

New York Jets at New England Patriots

Earlier this season, the Patriots went on the road as three-point favorites and defeated the Jets 22-17. They are favored by three points again in this one, except this time, they are playing in Foxborough.

Both of these teams have covered the spread in five of their last six games, while the Jets hold the better season ATS record at 6-3. With both teams coming off their bye, they each had plenty of time to gameplan for each other.

However, look for this line to move in favor of the Patriots. The first reason is that they are the home team. The second is that they have won 13 in a row against the Jets, with all but one of those wins coming by more than a field goal.

Current Line: Patriots -3

Predicted Final Line: Patriots -4

Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings

The Cowboys and Vikings are entering Week 11 with very different mindsets. The Vikings pulled off a miraculous victory in Buffalo, while the Cowboys blew a 14-point fourth-quarter lead for the first time in franchise history.

The Cowboys are favored in Minnesota, despite the Vikings being 8-1 and holding a 4.5-game lead in their division. While initially, it may seem like this line is destined to move in favor of the Vikings, the Vikings are due for a letdown, and with a line this fishy, it's unlikely many bettors are going to take the bait.

Current Line: Cowboys -1.5

Predicted Final Line: Cowboys -2.5

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers

Sunday Night Football features a rematch of the best Thursday Night Football game we have seen this season. In that game, Justin Herbert put up his second-most passing yards of the season, but the Chiefs were able to escape LA with the 27-24 victory.

Now, the Chiefs hold a two-game lead over the Chargers for first place in the AFC West, and with a win on Sunday Night, would really take control of the division.

This line is already moving to -7 at some of the major sportsbooks, and it wouldn't be surprising to see it move through the key number. The Chargers offense has been decimated by injuries, which has led to them losing two of their last three.

If Keenan Allen or Mike Williams is able to play this week, this line should drop back under the key number. But if they're both out, the Chiefs will be favored by eight in this game.

Current Line: Chiefs -6.5

Predicted Final Line: Chiefs -6.5

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals

The 49ers have won two in a row to get back above .500. However, in their last four games, they are just 1-3 against the spread, and they failed to cover at home as 7.5-point favorites on Sunday night.

The Cardinals took care of business against the Rams even though Kyler Murray was out with a hamstring injury. Yet, bettors do not seem impressed since the win came with Matthew Stafford out. Before that game, the Cardinals had lost four of their previous five.

This line seems like it was made assuming that Murray will be out again this week. However, even if he is, Colt McCoy was solid in the Cardinals' win, completing 26 of 37 passes for 238 yards and one touchdown. Therefore, no matter who is under the center, look for this line to drop below the key number.

Current Line: 49ers -7.5

Predicted Final Line: 49ers -6.5

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