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NFL Week 11 Early Odds, Best Bets & Trends (2023)

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Here is an early look at NFL Week 11 odds and trends:

NFL Week 11 Early Odds & Trends

Bengals @ Ravens – Thursday, Nov. 16 – 8:15 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines – BAL -3.5; O/U 46.0

Bengals trends:

  • Previous 10 games as an underdog: 8-2 ATS; 7-3 to the Under
  • Previous 10 games as a road underdog: 7-3 ATS; 7-3 to the Under
  • Previous 14 games following a loss: 9-4-1 ATS
  • Previous 20 games: 13-6-1 ATS
  • Previous 20 road games: 15-5 ATS; 12-7-1 to the Under

Ravens trends:

  • Previous 10 games vs Cincinnati: 6-4 to the Under
  • Previous 17 divisional games: 7-10 ATS
  • Previous 17 games following a loss: 11-6 ATS
  • Previous 20 games: 13-7 to the Under
  • Previous 20 home games: 14-6 to the Under
  • Previous 20 games as a favorite: 8-12 ATS; 14-6 to the Under

Best bet: Bengals +3.5

During Joe Burrow’s tenure, Cincinnati has been great in these spots as road underdogs, especially following a loss. I’ll take the points with them here in another AFC North matchup that figures to go down to the wire.

Titans @ Jaguars – Sunday, Nov. 19 – 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines – JAC -6.5; O/U 40.0

Titans trends:

  • Previous 13 divisional games: 8-5 ATS
  • Previous 20 games: 15-5 to the Under
  • Previous 20 road games: 13-7 to the Under
  • Previous 20 games as an underdog: 13-7 to the Under
  • Mike Vrabel as an underdog (Career): 27-18-1 ATS

Jaguars trends:

  • Previous 10 games vs Tennessee: 3-7 ATS
  • Previous 20 games: 12-8 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
  • Previous 20 home games: 14-6 to the Under
  • Previous 20 games as a favorite: 7-13 ATS; 12-7-1 to the Under
  • Previous 24 games following a loss: 9-15 ATS

Best bet: Titans +6.5

This is a classic Mike Vrabel spot, with the Titans catching nearly a TD in a road divisional game as the underdog. I’ll take them to cover this spread in a game that I expect to be closer than anticipated.

Chargers @ Packers – Sunday, Nov. 19 – 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines – LAC -3.0; O/U 44.0

Chargers trends:

  • Previous 10 games as a favorite: 6-3-1 ATS; 6-2-2 to the Under
  • Previous 10 road games: 7-2-1 to the Under
  • Previous 14 non-conference games: 8-6 ATS
  • Previous 18 games following a loss: 10-8 ATS
  • Previous 20 games: 12-6-2 to the Under

Packers trends:

  • Previous 13 non-conference games: 5-8 ATS
  • Previous 17 games following a loss: 9-8 ATS
  • Previous 20 home games: 12-8 ATS
  • Previous 20 games as an underdog: 12-8 ATS
  • Matt LaFleur as an underdog: 15-8 ATS

Best bet: Under 44.0

Green Bay has been one of the slowest starting teams in the NFL, and the Chargers’ WR room is significantly hampered by injuries. I’ll take the under in this one, especially in a spot where Chargers games have heavily trended under in recent years.

Giants @ Commanders – Sunday, Nov. 19 – 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines – WAS -10.0; O/U 37.0

Giants trends:

  • Previous 10 games as an underdog: 3-6-1 ATS; 9-1 to the Under
  • Previous 10 games: 2-7-1 ATS; 8-2 to the Under
  • Previous 16 divisional games: 7-9 ATS
  • Previous 20 road games: 13-7 to the Under
  • Previous 26 games following a loss: 14-12 ATS
  • Brian Daboll as an underdog (Career): 12-8-1 ATS

Commanders trends:

  • Previous 10 games vs NYG: 2-8 ATS; 5-3-2 to the Under
  • Previous 15 divisional games: 5-8-2 ATS
  • Previous 20 games: 10-8-2 ATS; 12-7-1 to the Under
  • Previous 20 home games: 7-11-2 ATS; 14-6 to the Under
  • Previous 20 games as a favorite: 7-13 ATS; 12-6-2 to the Under
  • Previous 23 games following a loss: 10-11-2 ATS

Best bet: Giants +10.0

Betting on this Washington team as a 10-point favorite is not a profitable proposition, especially against a division rival. I’ll take another divisional underdog here, with the Giants catching double digits.

Raiders @ Dolphins – Sunday, Nov. 19 – 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines – MIA -11.5; O/U 48.0

Raiders trends:

  • Previous 10 games as an underdog: 7-3 to the Under
  • Previous 12 games with rest disadvantage: 9-3 ATS
  • Previous 20 games: 14-6 to the Under
  • Previous 20 road games: 7-13 ATS; 12-8 to the Under

Dolphins trends:

  • Previous 10 games: 7-3 ATS
  • Previous 10 games following a BYE: 7-3 ATS
  • Previous 20 home games: 14-6 ATS
  • Previous 20 games as a favorite: 13-7 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
  • Previous 31 conference games: 19-11-1 ATS

Best bet: Dolphins -11.5

Miami has rolled in these spots as large favorites over inferior opponents this season. Although the Antonio Pierce story has been fun, the Dolphins are on a completely different level than the Giants and Jets.

Cardinals @ Texans – Sunday, Nov. 19 – 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines – HOU -4.0; O/U 47.5

Cardinals trends:

  • Previous 10 road games: 3-7 ATS
  • Previous 16 games following a win: 7-9 ATS
  • Previous 20 games: 12-7-1 to the Over
  • Previous 29 non-divisional games: 18-11 ATS

Texans trends:

  • Previous 10 games as a favorite: 2-8 ATS; 6-4 to the Over
  • Previous 14 non-conference games: 5-8-1 ATS
  • Previous 20 games: 12-8 to the Under
  • Previous 29 non-divisional games: 12-16-1 ATS
  • DeMeco Ryans as a favorite: 0-2 ATS

Best bet: Cardinals +4.0

We saw some flashes of the old Kyler Murray in his return from injury in the Cardinals’ victory over the Falcons on Sunday. Meanwhile, Houston has not been profitable as favorites in recent history. I’ll take the points with the Cardinals getting over a FG in Houston.

Bears @ Lions – Sunday, Nov. 19 – 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines – DET -10.0; O/U 47.0

Bears trends:

  • Previous 11 games following a win: 2-9 ATS
  • Previous 14 divisional games: 2-12 ATS
  • Previous 20 games: 5-14-1 ATS; 13-7 to the Over
  • Previous 20 games as an underdog: 7-12-1 ATS; 13-7 to the Over
  • Previous 20 road games: 7-13 ATS; 12-8 to the Over

Lions trends:

  • Previous 13 divisional games: 11-2 ATS
  • Previous 16 games following a win: 12-4 ATS
  • Previous 20 games: 16-4 ATS
  • Previous 20 home games: 15-5 ATS
  • Previous 20 games as a favorite: 12-8 ATS; 12-8 to the Over
  • Dan Campbell as a favorite (Career): 10-5 ATS

Best bet: Over 47.0

The Lions have been absolute scoring machines as home favorites under Dan Campbell, and I don’t see the Bears’ defense being able to put up any resistance. On the other side of the ball, I like the Bears to put up some points of their own, with Justin Fields hopeful to return from injury.

Steelers @ Browns – Sunday, Nov. 19 – 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines – CLE -4.0; O/U 37.0

Steelers trends:

  • Previous 10 games vs Cleveland: 8-2 ATS
  • Previous 10 road games: 7-3 ATS; 7-3 to the Under
  • Previous 10 games as an underdog: 7-3 ATS
  • Previous 14 divisional games: 9-5 ATS
  • Previous 20 games: 14-6 ATS; 13-7 to the Under
  • Mike Tomlin as an underdog (Career): 55-29-3 ATS

Browns:

  • Previous 10 home games: 7-3 ATS; 7-1-2 to the Under
  • Previous 16 divisional games: 7-9 ATS
  • Previous 19 games following a win: 5-13-1 ATS
  • Previous 20 games: 11-8-1 ATS; 11-7-2 to the Under
  • Previous 20 games as a favorite: 8-12 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
  • Kevin Stefanski as a favorite (Career): 12-21 ATS

Best bet: Steelers +4.0

Fading Kevin Stefanski and the Browns as favorites, with Mike Tomlin and the Steelers catching over a field goal as divisional underdogs? Say less; I’ll take the Steelers in this one.

Cowboys @ Panthers – Sunday, Nov. 19 – 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines – DAL -11.0; O/U 42.0

Cowboys trends:

  • Previous 6 games with rest disadvantage: 4-2 ATS
  • Previous 20 games: 12-8 ATS; 13-7 to the Over
  • Previous 20 road games: 12-8 to the Over
  • Previous 20 games as a favorite: 14-6 ATS; 12-8 to the Over
  • Previous 31 non-divisional games: 19-12 ATS
  • Previous 33 conference games: 22-11 ATS
  • Mike McCarthy as a favorite (Career): 106-72-4 ATS

Panthers trends:

  • Previous 7 games with rest advantage: 1-6 ATS
  • Previous 10 games: 3-6-1 ATS; 7-3 to the Under
  • Previous 10 games as an underdog: 3-6-1 ATS; 7-3 to the Under
  • Previous 20 home games: 7-12-1 ATS; 13-7 to the Under
  • Previous 28 games following a loss: 9-17-2 ATS
  • Previous 30 conference games: 10-18-2 ATS

Best bet: Cowboys -11.0

Carolina’s roster is arguably the worst in the NFL, and Dallas has made a habit of pounding inferior opponents as large favorites. I’ll take Dallas to keep rolling and cover this spread against a Panthers team with a pretty bleak outlook.

Buccaneers @ 49ers – Sunday, Nov. 19 – 4:05 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines – SF -11.0; O/U 41.5

Buccaneers trends:

  • Previous 20 games: 13-7 to the Under
  • Previous 20 road games: 14-6 to the Under
  • Previous 20 games as an underdog: 12-8 to the Over
  • Previous 32 non-divisional games: 13-18-1 ATS
  • Previous 33 conference games: 14-18-1 ATS
  • Todd Bowles as an underdog (Career): 22-28-3

49ers trends:

  • Previous 10 home games: 8-2 ATS; 7-3 to the Over
  • Previous 20 games: 13-7 ATS; 12-7-1 to the Over
  • Previous 20 games as a favorite: 13-7 ATS
  • Previous 32 games following a win: 21-11 ATS
  • Previous 33 non-divisional games: 19-14 ATS
  • Previous 35 conference games: 24-11 ATS

Best bet: Over 41.5

The 49ers’ offense has been a wagon at home under Kyle Shanahan. Buccaneers games have actually trended to the Over in underdog spots, even though they’ve been an Under team overall. I’ll take this game to go over the point total.

Seahawks @ Rams – Sunday, Nov. 19 – 4:25 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines – SEA -1.0; O/U 46.0

Seahawks trends:

  • Previous 9 games with rest disadvantage: 6-3 ATS
  • Previous 10 games as a favorite: 3-6-1 ATS; 6-4 to the Over
  • Previous 15 divisional games: 6-9 ATS
  • Previous 20 games following a win: 7-12-1 ATS

Rams trends:

  • Previous 5 games with rest advantage: 1-4 ATS
  • Previous 10 games: 7-3 to the Under
  • Previous 17 divisional games: 10-7 ATS
  • Previous 20 games as an underdog: 8-10-2 ATS; 12-7-1 to the Under
  • Previous 20 games vs Seattle: 13-7 ATS; 13-7 to the Under

Best bet: Rams +1.0

Matthew Stafford is on track to play this week after the Rams bye, and Sean McVay has dominated this matchup against Pete Carroll. I’ll take the Rams at home to win this divisional matchup.

Jets @ Bills – Sunday, Nov. 19 – 4:25 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines – BUF -7.0; O/U 40.5

Jets trends:

  • Previous 6 games with rest advantage: 1-4-1 ATS
  • Previous 10 road games: 3-6-1 ATS; 7-3 to the Under
  • Previous 14 divisional games: 5-9 ATS
  • Previous 20 games: 15-5 to the Under
  • Previous 20 games as an underdog: 13-7 to the Under

Bills trends:

  • Previous 7 games with rest disadvantage: 5-2 ATS
  • Previous 10 games vs NYJ: 7-3 to the Under
  • Previous 20 games: 8-12 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
  • Sean McDermott as a favorite: 34-28-4 ATS

Best bet: Under 40.5

The Jets have dominated the pace of these matchups in recent years, keeping the games close and relatively low-scoring. I’ll count on this game to have a similar script, trusting the Jets’ defense to keep the Bills in check without having much of their own offensive success.

Vikings @ Broncos – Sunday, Nov. 19 – 8:20 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines – DEN -1.5; O/U 43.5

Vikings trends:

  • Previous 10 games: 6-3-1 ATS; 7-3 to the Under
  • Previous 10 road games: 6-2-2 ATS
  • Previous 12 non-conference games: 7-5 ATS
  • Previous 20 games as an underdog: 13-7 to the Over

Broncos trends:

  • Previous 10 games: 3-6-1 ATS
  • Previous 13 non-conference games: 7-5-1 ATS
  • Previous 20 home games: 12-8 to the Under
  • Previous 20 games as a favorite: 4-15-1 ATS
  • Previous 26 games following a loss: 11-14-1 ATS

Best bet: Broncos -1.5

The Joshua Dobbs experience has been remarkable in Minnesota, but this is a tough road spot for them, traveling to Denver. I think the Broncos cover this short spread against a surging Vikings team.

Eagles @ Chiefs – Monday, Nov. 20 – 8:15 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines – KC -3.0; O/U 46.5

Eagles trends:

  • Previous 10 games as an underdog: 3-7 ATS
  • Previous 10 games following a BYE: 3-5-2 ATS
  • Previous 20 games: 12-8 to the Over
  • Previous 31 non-divisional games: 17-13-1 ATS

Chiefs trends:

  • Previous 10 home games: 7-3 ATS; 8-2 to the Under
  • Previous 10 games: 7-3 ATS; 8-2 to the Under
  • Previous 10 games following a BYE: 7-2-1 to the Under
  • Previous 10 games as a favorite: 6-4 ATS; 7-3 to the Under
  • Previous 14 non-conference games: 10-3-1 ATS

Best bet: Eagles +3.0

Patrick Mahomes’ numbers as a favorite go down significantly when the spread is 3.0 or greater. I see Philadelphia as the better and more complete team at the moment. I’ll take the Eagles to cover this field goal spread in what should be one of the best regular season games this season.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:

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