NFL Week 11 Early Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

by Nick MacDonald |
Nov 14, 2023

Week 11 has a lot of huge spreads. Half of the spreads this week are by a touchdown or more. The odds-makers are starting to really separate the good teams from the bad and have the spreads reflecting that.

With that considered for the Week 11 Early NFL Parlay, Iâ€™ve taken a closer look at a couple of point totals. However, I couldnâ€™t help but pick one of the big favorites to cover. Read on to see which favorite I expect to win big this week.

NFL Week 11 Early Parlay

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Leg 1: Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions Under 46.5 (-110)

The line of 46.5 for the Bears-Lions games is likely being driven by the Lionsâ€™ 41-point performance against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 10. Against LA, the Lions put up over 500 yards and looked like they could do whatever they wanted on offense.

Another factor driving this line is that it looks like Justin Fields will potentially be returning to the Bears for this matchup. In his two games before the injury, the Bears put up 28 and 40 points, respectively.

I would like this line more in a couple of weeks, but with Fields returning after missing over a month with a thumb injury, I expect the Bears to look rusty. The Lionsâ€™ defense ranks third, allowing only 79.1 rush yards per game. I expect Fields and the Bears to rely heavily on the run game coming off of the thumb injury, which plays into Detroitâ€™s defensive strength.

Even with the ability of the Detroit offense to put up a lot of points, I like the under 46.5-point total this week. I can see a game where Detroit gets up early, and then Chicago struggles to move the ball. As a side prop bet, I like the over for David Montgomeryâ€™s rush yards because I can see the Lions eating up a lot of clock, rushing the ball while being up two scores.

Leg 2: Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ San Francisco 49ers Over 41.5 (-110)

The 49ers looked like the best team in the league through the first five weeks. Then the injuries started to mount, and they went into their bye week on a three-game skid. Coming out of the bye a bit healthier, we werenâ€™t sure how theyâ€™d look. They answered that question with a dominant 34-3 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The 49ers will be back at home this week after the big Week 10 win in Jacksonville. San Francisco is averaging 31 points at home this season and looks to be fairly healthy.

The Buccaneers are coming to San Francisco after a 20-6 home win against the Tennessee Titans in Week 10. Tampa Bay is averaging almost 20 points per game this year through nine contests and sits at a 4-5 record, only half a game back of the New Orleans Saints for first place in the NFC South.

San Francisco has played well at home, and every game is important for Tampa Bay in a tight NFC South race. With a point total of only 41.5 for this game, I like the over.

Leg 3: Las Vegas Raiders @ Miami Dolphins -10.5 (-115)

The line of 10.5 is a big number to cover, but I still like the Dolphins to do it this week. The Dolphins are coming off a Week 10 bye and have been dominating teams with a .500-or-worse record this year.

The Dolphins are currently 6-3, with all six of those wins coming against teams with a .500-or-worse win percentage. In those six games, they are winning by an average of over 15 points per game. That number is skewed by their 70-20 win over the Broncos, but if you remove that game, they are still beating up on bad teams by nearly 10 points per game.

While the Raiders are coming into this game with a .500 record, sitting at 5-5 on the season, that record is a bit misleading. Their wins have come against the Broncos, Packers, Patriots, Giants and Jets, who have a combined 14-32 record.

After hearing all bye week that they are overrated, I like the Dolphins to win big in this one. Mike McDaniel has shown in the game against Denver that he is not afraid to run up the score.

Threeâ€“Leg Parlay Odds: (+581)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:

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