NFL Week 11 First Touchdown Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

by Trent Conner |
Nov 17, 2023

Someone must score the first TD of the game, and this article will help you increase your odds of hitting on that player based on matchups and team strengths. It will feature a selection for each game of the Sunday slate.

I will track my plays here on BettingPros. Let's get to the first touchdown scorer predictions for NFL Week 11!

Compare first touchdown stats to prop bet odds to help identify the best bets of the week >>

NFL Week 11 First Touchdown Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions

Dallas Cowboys @ Carolina Panthers

Rico Dowdle

Odds: +1400 via FanDuel Sportsbook

The Panthers are awful at defending the run. They allow 131.9 rushing yards per game and 4.3 yards per rush attempt. They have also given up 15 rushing TDs this season, which leads the league. Tony Pollard is the favorite to score first at +470, but his backup seems the better option this week. Dowdle only played 28% of snaps last week but had 12 carries for 79 yards and a TD. His snap share should increase this week, especially since the Panthers are weak against the run. He is worth a bet at this price.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns

Jaylen Warren

Odds: +1000 via DraftKings Sportsbook

Here is another spot with one running back listed too high and the other offering value. Deshaun Watson is out for the season, so the Browns are turning to Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Neither offense will look great in this game, and both teams should lean on the rushing attack. Warren has half the rushing attempts of Najee Harris in the red zone, but he is averaging 4.8 yards per carry compared to 2.8 for Harris. These guys also split time pretty evenly. Warren averages 46% of snaps, and Harris averages 54%, so take the one with more value.

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions

DJ Moore

Odds: +1400 via FanDuel Sportsbook

DJ Moore should benefit from Justin Fields returning this week. The Lions allow 231.6 passing yards per game and have struggled in recent weeks, giving up 38 points twice in two of the last three weeks. Moore also has seven red zone targets, of which he has caught five for three TDs. Moore received a 22.4% target share in his first five weeks with Fields and should get targeted by his young quarterback again. The Lions gave up two touchdowns to Keenan Allen last week, which bodes well for Moore, who will be facing the cornerbacks that continue to struggle.

Arizona Cardinals @ Houston Texans

Devin Singletary

Odds: +550 via DraftKings Sportsbook

Dameon Pierce has not participated in practice this week and is trending in the wrong direction to play against the Cardinals. Singletary is doing his best to steal the starting role away from Pierce. Singletary played 815 snaps last week and had 30 rush attempts, which he turned into 150 yards. The Cardinals allow 4.2 yards per carry and have given up 14 rushing TDs this season. Singletary should have plenty of opportunities to fall into the end zone as long as the Texans' defense does not surrender a touchdown prior to that.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Miami Dolphins

Raheem Mostert

Odds: +550 via FanDuel Sportsbook

Tyreek Hill is the favorite to score first, but Mostert seems like the better play. The Raiders allow 4.6 yards per carry and have given up 10 rushing TDs this season. Mostert is listed as questionable and has been limited in practice this week. He has typically had a questionable tag this season, as he is a veteran running back with a history of injuries. The Dolphins allow him to rest early in the week usually. De'Von Achane is returning this week, but Mostert is the goal line back. He has 23 attempts in the red zone and has scored 10 times. He is a solid play against the Raiders.

New York Giants @ Washington Commanders

Brian Robinson

Odds: +500 via FanDuel Sportsbook

The Giants are not great against the run. They have allowed 4.7 yards per carry, 131.2 rushing yards per game, and have surrendered 16 rushing TDs. Robinson had 119 receiving yards last week on six receptions, and Antonio Gibson had nine total touches. Both are in play to score this week, but Robinson has been the better ball carrier this season. Robinson has four times the attempts and touchdowns as Gibson. Robinson is the best player for this game, even though he only had 23 yards in their first matchup.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Green Bay Packers

Romeo Doubs

Odds: +1600 via FanDuel Sportsbook

The Packers' receivers have a great matchup this week. They need Jordan Love to be more consistent, though. He should be able to gain some confidence in this matchup and could have a game similar to his first two this season. The Chargers do not pressure the quarterback and give up deep passes. Any receiver can score first for Green Bay, but Doubs offers slightly more upside. He leads the team in red zone targets with 13 and has caught seven for six TDs. Jayden Reed and Christian Watson may have more big-play ability, but Doubs has been a favorite target of Love, which counts for a lot.

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars

DeAndre Hopkins

Odds: +1200 via DraftKings Sportsbook

Hopkins has not scored since he scored three times in week eight, but he has a solid matchup this week. The Jaguars have 11 interceptions but have allowed 14 passing TDs and give up 266.8 passing yards per game. Will Levis targets Hopkins at a high clip, but they connect at a lower rate. He has 20 targets over the last two games, but Hopkins only has seven receptions for 87 yards. It is a good spot for Hopkins to get back on track since the Jaguars have been good at keeping running backs in check.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ San Francisco 49ers

Brandon Aiyuk

Odds: +750 via DraftKings Sportsbook

Brandon Aiyuk delivered last week as the first TD scorer and has another good matchup. The Buccaneers give up 7.6 yards per pass attempt and are not great at defending deep balls. Aiyuk averages 17.8 yards per reception this season. He has 15 20+ yard receptions this season, and the Buccaneers have allowed a 20-yard reception or longer in every game. Hopefully, Aiyuk catches a long one for a TD before McCaffrey gets back in the end zone.

New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills

Dalton Kincaid

Odds: +900 via FanDuel Sportsbook

The Jets have allowed the most touchdowns to tight ends this season. They have allowed six TDs to the position. Dawson Knox got injured in week seven, and Kincaid is averaging eight targets per game from week seven. He has made the most of the opportunity given due to injury. Josh Allen is targeting him at a high rate, and he is catching most of them. Kincaid has six red zone targets this season but has not scored inside the red zone. The matchup is good enough for him to find his first red zone touchdown.

Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams

Darrell Henderson

Odds: +850 via DraftKings Sportsbook

The Rams brought back a familiar face when they brought Henderson in to replace Kyren Williams. The Rams are coming off their bye week, so Henderson should have gotten acclimated to the locker room and playbook by now. He played an average of 54% of snaps during his first three games off the couch. The Seahawks allow 116 rushing yards per game and 4.3 rushing yards per attempt. They have given up nine rushing TDs this season. Henderson has a high probability of scoring first this week but is third in odds. He is the best value.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

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