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NFL Week 11 Line Report: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

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Welcome back to my Week 11 NFL Line Report at BettingPros, featuring my custom cost-per-point betting analysis. If you're unfamiliar with the concept, I encourage you to check out my Week 1 introduction.

Long story short: NFL prices aren't standardized, so not all points are priced equally. I'm going to run valuations on the DraftKings Sportsbook betting board each week and chart prices to identify which scenarios are advantageous to bet the Moneyline (ML) versus against the spread (ATS), and vice-versa.

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NFL Week 11 Line Report: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

Significant Overnight Line Moves & Notes Since the Open

PIT moved from (+4) to (+2) at CLE

Just as the arrow starting pointing up for the Brownies, here comes that all-too familiar gray cloud. After an incredibly impressive 4-1 run after their Week 5 bye (including wins over the San Francisco 49ers and the Baltimore Ravens) Cleveland finds out they’ll be without quarterback Deshaun Watson for the home stretch. The $230 million dollar man will undergo season-ending surgery on a broken bone in his throwing shoulder, which sends the Browns’ season and this line right into a blender.

Before the news hit, the betting market showed little faith in the Steelers, who are also coming off their own 4-1 run. However, I expect this move to continue gaining momentum given the dismal play thus far from backups P.J. Walker (51.3 passer rating, 49% completion rate, -0.19 EPA/dropback, 1:5 TD/INT Ratio) and Dorian Thompson-Robinson (121-0-3 in Week 4). The Browns’ defense can hang with anyone but without a quarterback to facilitate their weaponry, I have this modeled closer to (PK).

NYG moved from (+7.5) to (+10) at WAS

If anything, this 2.5-point move exemplifies the very best real-time case in point for early line shopping. The 2023 iteration of this New York Giants offense with goodfella Tommy DeVito under center could not be any worse statistically: Dead last in yards/game (214.3), yards/play (4.3), average drive distance (16.9), first down/drive (1.0), rive success rate (14.3%), EPA/attempt (-0.26), completions/game (13.0), passing yards/game (68.7), yards/attempt (4.2), yards/completion (7.2), pressure rate (55.2%) and sacks allowed (13). Big Blue is. a double-digit underdog coming off the bus right now and I’d advise hunting for single-digit opens going forward.

LV moved from (+10) to (+12.5) at MIA

You’d never know from this shift off a critical (+10) open that Las Vegas just won two in a row with a +28 point differential. That alone shows you precisely what the public thinks of both New York teams. On the other side of things, the story seems to be out on the Dolphins. When defensive matchups align properly, Miami creates distinct mismatches by forcing switches with motion and track speed. I’m fully expecting to see this materialize on Sunday, considering Vegas’ reliance on five-DB zones and a bottom-five blitz rate.

Covering 13 points is always a tall order but if the Fins jump ahead, can the Raiders play from behind? I highly doubt it. Another line worth jumping on if spotted earlier.

TB moved from (+9.5) to (+11.5) at SF

This all-of-a-sudden double-digit line doesn’t mean a thing. Before the bookmakers could post this one at +9.5, San Francisco bettors attacked at full force, making mincemeat of a not-so-powerful No. 10. Worries started swirling in San Fran after three consecutive losses until the Niners firmly squashed those concerns in a 34-3 statement win in Jacksonville. Tampa Bay’s shown some life at points, I’ll give it that; but the fact remains the Buccaneers are one dimensional on offense. I’d argue the Buccaneers’ rush attack is the worst in the NFL (3.1 yards/rush, 0.69 yards before contact/rush, 25.1% success rate) and with the addition of Chase Young in San Francisco, Tampa will struggle every dropback to have that play sufficiently develop.

NFL Week 11 Cost Analysis-Based Expected Line Moves

DAL should move to (-11.5) from (-10.5) at CAR

If you reference our handy-dandy custom point valuation chart (image below), you’ll see Dallas stands out as a clear outlier on the left axis. The Cowboys boast the most expensive point on the board (~$44) despite the existence of two other teams with wider spreads. The $130 intra-game difference between points on each side provides another clue that movement’s afoot. We’re also beyond any perceived rigidity of ten points holding weight; not to mention the analytics say this one winds up decided by two touchdowns.

NFL Week 11 Favorites With Value on the Moneyline vs. ATS

  • CLE (-130) vs PIT
  • DEN (-130) vs MIN
  • SEA (-115) at LAR

NFL Week 11 Underdogs With Value ATS vs. on the Moneyline

  • PIT (+2.5) at CLE
  • MIN (+2.5) at DEN
  • LAR (+1.5) vs. SEA

As usual, our cost-per-point analysis identifies value in games with spreads of three or fewer points. Remember that any (-110) standard price carries an implied probability of 52.4%, another critical part of our calculus. In these examples, betting slight favorites to cover will theoretically save you in terms of total risk, but it costs you implied probability. To me, the games themselves are too variant, and the samples of NFL games we deal with are too low to pass on a chance to maximize outcomes. In plain English: Play it safe and don't be greedy trying to cover these narrow spreads.

UPDATE: After another three nail-biters last week, over 10% of all games (16/150) this year have been decided by two points or less.

Week 11 Best Bet: DAL (-11.5) To Win 1 Unit

Record YTD (2-6-1, -4.85u)

We left off on DAL/CAR with reasoning for incoming CLV from a cost-per-point perspective on Dallas’ side of the coin, with every conceivable stat on our side.

The Cowboys are humming since coming off their bye three weeks ago. This recent (34-500-3) explosion from the Dak Prescott to CeeDee Lamb battery contends with some of the most prolific in history. Dallas is pairing a top-three offense (38.3 PPG, 6.8 yards/play, +0.20 EPA/play, 2.5 first down/drive) with a top-tier defense (248.0 yards/game, 4.3 yards/play, 144 pass yards/game) in that same span.

The Panthers, on the other hand, have allowed a +40% pressure rate and have failed to score more than 15 points since their own bye week against less-than-stellar defenses. Even if the Panthers’ defense does continue keeping pace, I don’t think their offensive line can provide clean looks for a quarterback that’s yet to show the necessary wherewithal when pressured (40.2% completion rate, 41.7 passer rating, 24% sack rate, 0:2 TD/INT ratio). This Panthers squad’s circling the drain, once again on pace for the No. 1 overall pick - too bad they already traded it to the Chicago Bears.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

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