NFL Week 11 Monday Night Football Picks & Player Prop Bets (Texans vs. Cowboys)
Welcome to the final NFL betting article for Week 11 from BettingPros! I'm Andrew Erickson, your guide to Week 11's Monday Night Football. In this solo MNF edition, we're laser-focused on the highly anticipated matchups as we continue into the double-digit weeks of the NFL regular season. From expert insights on the spread and total to can't-miss player props, I'll help you craft the perfect single-game parlay to kick off your week.
Get ready, folks-it's time to place those BETS. Let's dive into my top picks and player prop bets for Monday Night Football.
For a limited time, you can save $30 off your first month of Fubo (Try for Free) >>
Monday Night Primer
Houston Texans @ Dallas Cowboys
Sides:
- The road team has won nine of the Cowboys' last 11 games.
- The road team has covered the spread in nine of the Cowboys' last 12 games.
- Dallas is 4-8 ATS and straight up as a road underdog.
- The Cowboys have covered the spread in eight of their last 12 games as home underdogs.
- The overall favorites have covered the spread in 21 of the Cowboys' last 28 games.
- Dallas went 8-1 at home in 2023. They have lost four straight home games.
- They are 3-2 on the road this season and ATS.
- The Texans have failed to cover the spread in six of their last 11 games and are 4-6 ATS this season.
- The Texans are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games as favorites (6-11 ATS as a favorite since the start of 2023).
- Twelve of their last 15 wins have been by seven or fewer points.
- Houston is just 14-13 against the spread over its last 27 games.
- Houston is 2-4 as road favorites. 5-10-1 ATS as a favorite.
- The Texans have lost each of their last 10 road games against NFC opponents.
- HOU is 10-5-1 ATS as a road underdog (70%) and 3-5-1 ATS as home favorites.
- The Texans have won six of their last seven home games.
- The Texans have covered the spread in each of their last eight games as underdogs following a loss.
- They are 9-19-1 ATS as underdogs, while 6-7 ATS (45%) as home underdogs ATS.
- The Texans have scored first in each of their last five games.
Totals:
- Seven of the Cowboys' last 11 games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Fourteen of the Cowboys' last 23 games (67%) have gone OVER the projected total, with their offense firing on all cylinders in the last 13 of 21 games through the air.
- Games in Dallas have averaged north of 53 points this season (3-1 O/U).
- Since 2023, Dallas is 10-3 toward the over at home, averaging over 53 points per game.
- Fourteen of the Cowboys' last 18 home games have gone OVER the total points line per DraftKings Sportsbook.
- The Texans have gone under in 19 of their last 29 games, which featured them playing many offenses averaging fewer than 20 points per game.
- Houston is 2-8 O/U this season. Eight of the Texansâ last nine games have gone UNDER the total points line. 0-5 O/U at home (41.5 points per game).
- According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the Texans' last seven games as home favorites have all ended UNDER the total points line.
- Five of the Texansâ last six games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
Overall:
Last Monday, I wrote this down regarding the Dallas Cowboys: Fade Dallas into oblivion.
A week later, I feel no different. Dallas is just a bad team, and that was even before they lost Dak Prescott to a season-ending injury. Their so-called "home-field advantage?" They are allowing over 38 points per game at home this season.
Like last week, Iâm not overthinking this game. Texans dominate, and the Cowboysâ spiral in 2024 continues.
Because there are so many ways that the Texans can win and easily cover the seven-point spread.
Run game. According to Next Gen Stats, the Cowboysâ defense has allowed opposing teams to gain more yards than expected on 40.1% of their designed runs this season, the highest rate in the NFL. Joe Mixon is averaging a league-leading 21.6 carries per game through 10 weeks.
Pass game? Nico Collins is back, and I expect his return to provide a much-needed boost to the Texansâ passing offense.
According to Next Gen Stats, Stroud has recorded a higher completion percentage and more yards per attempt with Nico Collins on the field this season than without.
In particular, Stroud has fared much better on deep pass attempts (20+ air yards), recording 15.0 yards per attempt and generating +7.2 EPA with Collins on the field, as opposed to just 9.7 yards per attempt and a -6.2 EPA with him off the field. Stroud and Collins have also combined for the 2nd-most receiving yards and EPA generated on deep passes over the past 2 seasons.
Per Next Gen Stats, since coming into the league last season. C.J. Stroud has accumulated 2,088 passing yards on intermediate pass attempts (between 10-19 air yards), the 3rd-most in the league.
This season, nearly a quarter of Stroud's pass attempts (24.9%) have been to the intermediate part of the field, the 6th-highest rate among qualified QBs. The Cowboys have allowed the most yards per attempt (12.4), the most EPA per dropback (+0.7), and the 5th-highest success rate (61.5%) to intermediate passes this season.
I also have no hope, outside jamming targets to CeeDee Lamb, that Dallas can move the ball on Houston. The Texans boast of the league's best pass rushes while ranking 5th in fewest yards per play allowed this season.
Lamb will see a ton of volume and might find the end zone once, given how badly the Texans are allowing passing TDs. But if they throw their entire secondary to stop Lamb, it's going to be another tough day at the office for Big D.
Iâve liked a lot of the underdogs to cover in Week 11, but Dallas is not one of them. 1-4 as a home underdog in their last five relevant games. 5-12 ATS as underdogs (29%).
Props:
Even with Collins back in the fold, I am not expecting a heavy pass-game script for Houston. C.J. Stroud is under his pass attempts in 10 of his last 13 road games. Dallas is facing the fewest pass attempts per game this season (27.0). Two QBs have gone over 30 attempts against Dallas this season, and those teams both lost.
Cooper Rush has thrown one TD this season. It was to Jalen Tolbert. Just based on how often Houston allows passing TDs to WRs, I like Tolbert with very long-shot odds as the clear-cut WR2 in this offense (+575).
Also, if you really want a fun one, Houston DST to score is +700. Dallas has not allowed non-offensive TD this season, and Houston has not score a non-offensive TD yet. Thatâs despite Houston ranking 5th in takeaways and Dallas ranking second in giveaways. Houston is the ONLY team inside the top-five takeaways without a non-offensive TD. Something has to give.
My Picks: