NFL Week 11 Odds & Picks: Best Early Bets (2024)
We went 1-1 in last week’s edition of the NFL Top Early Week Picks. The Patriots +6.5 was never in doubt. However, the Over in the Jets-Cardinals game was a dud. The Cardinals scored 31 points, but former MVP Aaron Rodgers and the Jets didn’t find the endzone in a 31-6 loss.
Let’s get back on track with our early picks for Week 11.
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NFL Top Early Week Picks (Week 11)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKingsFanDuel Sportsbook)
Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears
I’ll continue to beat against the Chicago Bears. Chicago is 4-5, but this year feels worse than last year for the Bears. After all, Chicago just lost 19-3 to the Patriots and has dropped three consecutive games without scoring more than 15 points.
So much for drafting Caleb Williams with the No. 1 overall pick. Williams isn’t the only issue. But he’s not developing like Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, or Bo Nix. That’s an issue. His QBR of 38.4 is 28th in the NFL. He’s also thrown for only 1,785 passing yards this season. Over the last three games, Williams doesn’t have a single passing touchdown. Yet, he’s been sacked 18 times in those three games.
While part of it is the offensive line, it’s also the fact that Williams doesn’t get rid of the ball quickly. He hasn’t adapted to the NFL.
On the other hand, the Packers are coming off a loss to the Lions in early November. They had a bye week to prepare for the Bears. For example, Jordan Love has missed a couple of games and still has more passing yards than Williams. While Love hasn’t been tremendous recently, with two interceptions and no touchdowns, a bye week should be a solid reset for him.
Give me the Packers at -6.5 on the road in this divisional rivalry matchup.
Pick: Packers -6.5 (-110)
Atlanta Falcons vs. Denver Broncos
Sean Payton has really turned the Denver Broncos around. While the Broncos lost to the Chiefs on a blocked field goal, Denver came super close to earning a monster upset on the road.
I talked about how Caleb Williams hasn’t grown. But look at Bo Nix. He’s a formidable quarterback and a perfect fit for the Broncos’ plans. Nix finished last week with 215 passing yards and completed 73.3% of passes against an undefeated Chiefs team on the road.
Denver had a slight hiccup in the game before against the Ravens, but the defense really came alive against the Chiefs last week. After two road games against major AFC franchises, the Broncos will be happy to be home against a usually inconsistent Falcons squad.
The Atlanta Falcons just lost to the New Orleans Saints. You know, the team that fired its head coach last week and potentially lost Chris Olave for the year due to a concussion. The Falcons scored just 17 points in the loss despite Kirk Cousins throwing for more than 300 yards. The run game also added 5.7 yards a carry. However, Atlanta couldn’t finish drives.
That’ll likely continue to be the theme against a Broncos defense that has become one of the best in the NFL. Take Denver at -1.5.
Pick: Broncos -1.5 (-110)